Ecological Niche Models and Coalescent Analysis of Gene Flow Support Recent Allopatric Isolation of Parasitoid Wasp Populations in the Mediterranean

Background: The integration of multiple complementary approaches is a powerful way to understand the processes of diversification and speciation. The parasitoid wasp Aphidius transcaspicus Telenga (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) is a parasitoid of Hyalopterus aphids across a wide geographic range. This species shows a remarkable degree of genetic structure among western, central, and eastern Mediterranean population clusters. In this paper we attempt to better characterize this genetic structure. Methodology/Principal Findings: We use a Bayesian coalescent analysis of gene flow under the Isolation with Migration model using mitochondrial and microsatellite markers together with climate-based ecological niche models to better understand the genetic structure of A. transcaspicus in the Mediterranean. The coalescent analysis revealed low levels of migration among western and eastern Mediterranean populations (Nm,1) that were not statistically distinguishable from zero. Niche models showed that localities within population clusters each occupy areas of continuously high environmental suitability, but are separated from each other by large regions of completely unsuitable habitat that could limit dispersal. Overall, environmental characteristics were similar among the population clusters, though significant differences did emerge. Conclusions/Significance: These results support contemporary allopatric isolation of Mediterranean populations of A

Climate-driven variation in biotic interactions provides a narrow and variable window of opportunity for an insect herbivore at its ecological margin

Climate-driven geographic range shifts have been associated with transitions between dietary specialism and generalism at range margins. The mechanisms underpinning these often transient niche breadth modifications are poorly known, but utilization of novel resources likely depends on phenological synchrony between the consumer and resource. We use a climate-driven range and host shift by the butterfly Aricia agestis to test how climate-driven changes in host phenology and condition affect phenological synchrony, and consider implications for host use. Our data suggest that the perennial plant that was the primary host before range expansion is a more reliable resource than the annual Geraniaceae upon which the butterfly has become specialized in newly colonized parts of its range. In particular, climate-driven phenological variation in the novel host Geranium dissectum generates a narrow and variable 'window of opportunity' for larval productivity in summer. Therefore, although climatic change may allow species to shift hosts and colonise novel environments, specialization on phenologically limited hosts may not persist at ecological margins as climate change continues. We highlight the potential role for phenological (a)synchrony in determining lability of consumer-resource associations at range margins and the importance of considering causes of synchrony in biotic interactions when predicting range shifts. This article is part of the theme issue 'Species' ranges in the face of changing environments (Part II)'

Population variation in early development can determine ecological resilience in response to environmental change

As climate change transforms seasonal patterns of temperature and precipitation, germination success at marginal temperatures will become critical for the long-term persistence of many plant species and communities. If populations vary in their environmental sensitivity to marginal temperatures across a species’ geographical range, populations that respond better to future environmental extremes are likely to be critical for maintaining ecological resilience of the species. / Using seeds from two to six populations for each of nine species of Mediterranean plants, we characterized patterns of among-population variation in environmental sensitivity by quantifying genotype-by-environment interactions (G × E) for germination success at temperature extremes, and under two light regimes representing conditions below and above the soil surface. / For eight of nine species tested at hot and cold marginal temperatures, we observed substantial among-population variation in environmental sensitivity for germination success, and this often depended on the light treatment. Importantly, different populations often performed best at different environmental extremes. / Our results demonstrate that ongoing changes in temperature regime will affect the phenology, fitness, and demography of different populations within the same species differently. We show that quantifying patterns of G × E for multiple populations, and understanding how such patterns arise, can test mechanisms that promote ecological resilience

Hidden genetic variation in plasticity provides the potential for rapid adaptation to novel environments

Rapid environmental change is forcing populations into novel environments where plasticity will no longer maintain fitness. When populations are exposed to novel environments, evolutionary theory predicts that genetic variation in fitness will increase and should be associated with genetic differences in plasticity. If true, then genetic variation in plasticity can increase adaptive potential in novel environments, and population persistence via rapid adaptation is more likely. To test whether genetic variation in fitness increases in novel environments and is associated with plasticity, we transplanted 8,149 clones of 314 genotypes of a Sicilian daisy (Senecio chrysanthemifolius) within and outside its native range, and quantified genetic variation in fitness, and plasticity in leaf traits and gene expression. Although mean fitness declined by 87% in the novel environment, genetic variance in fitness increased threefold and was correlated with plasticity in leaf traits. High fitness genotypes showed greater plasticity in gene expression, but lower plasticity in most leaf traits. Interestingly, genotypes with greater fitness in the novel environment had the lowest fitness at the native site. These results suggest that standing genetic variation in plasticity could help populations to persist and adapt to novel environments, despite remaining hidden in native environments

Evolutionary divergence in life history traits among populations of the Lake Malawi cichlid fish <i>Astatotilapia calliptera</i>

During the early stages of adaptive radiation, populations diverge in life history traits such as egg size and growth rates, in addition to eco- morphological and behavioral characteristics. However, there are few studies of life history divergence within ongoing adaptive radiations. Here, we studied Astatotilapia calliptera, a maternal mouthbrooding cichlid fish within the Lake Malawi haplochromine radiation. This species occupies a rich diversity of habitats, including the main body of Lake Malawi, as well as peripheral rivers and shallow lakes. We used common garden experiments to test for life history divergence among populations, focussing on clutch size, duration of incubation, egg mass, offspring size, and growth rates. In a first experiment, we found significant differences among populations in average clutch size and egg mass, and larger clutches were associated with smaller eggs. In a second experiment, we found significant differences among populations in brood size, duration of incubation, juvenile length when released, and growth rates. Larger broods were associated with smaller juveniles when released and shorter incubation times. Although juvenile growth rates differed between populations, these were not strongly related to initial size on release. Overall, differences in life history characters among populations were not predicted by major habitat classifications (Lake Malawi or peripheral habitats) or population genetic divergence (microsatellite- based FST). We suggest that the observed patterns are consistent with local selective forces driving the observed patterns of trait divergence. The results provide strong evidence of evolutionary divergence and covariance of life history traits among populations within a radiating cichlid species, highlighting opportunities for further work to identify the processes driving the observed divergence

Rapid evolution of novel biotic interactions in the UK Brown Argus butterfly uses genomic variation from across its geographical range

Understanding the rate and extent to which populations can adapt to novel environments at their ecological margins is fundamental to predicting the persistence of biological communities during ongoing and rapid global change. Recent range expansion in response to climate change in the UK butterfly Aricia agestis is associated with the evolution of novel interactions with a larval food plant, and the loss of its ability to use an ancestral host species. Using ddRAD analysis of 61,210 variable SNPs from 261 females from throughout the UK range of this species, we identify genomic regions at multiple chromosomes that are associated with evolutionary responses, and their association with demographic history and ecological variation. Gene flow appears widespread throughout the range, despite the apparently fragmented nature of the habitats used by this species. Patterns of haplotype variation between selected and neutral genomic regions suggest that evolution associated with climate adaptation is polygenic, resulting from the independent spread of alleles throughout the established range of this species, rather than the colonization of pre-adapted genotypes from coastal populations. These data suggest that rapid responses to climate change do not depend on the availability of pre-adapted genotypes. Instead, the evolution of novel forms of biotic interaction in A. agestis has occurred during range expansion, through the assembly of novel genotypes from alleles from multiple localities