Flexible Causal Inference for Political Science

Measuring the causal impact of state behavior on outcomes is one of the biggest methodological challenges in the field of political science, for two reasons: behavior is generally endogenous, and the threat of unobserved variables that confound the relationship between behavior and outcomes is pervasive. Matching methods, widely considered to be the state of the art in causal inference in political science, are generally ill-suited to inference in the presence of unobserved confounders. Heckman-style multiple-equation models offer a solution to this problem; however, they rely on functional-form assumptions that can produce substantial bias in estimates of average treatment effects. We describe a category of models, flexible joint likelihood models, that account for both features of the data while avoiding reliance on rigid functional-form assumptions. We then assess these models’ performance in a series of neutral simulations, in which they produce substantial (55% to 90%) reduction in bias relative to competing models. Finally, we demonstrate their utility in a reanalysis of Simmons’ (2000) classic study of the impact of Article VIII commitment on compliance with the IMF’s currency-restriction regime

Barriers to Coordination? Examining the Impact of Culture on International Mediation Occurrence and Effectiveness

‘Culture’ features prominently in the literature on international mediation: if belligerents share cultural characteristics, they are likely to have a common understanding and norms. This creates a common identity and makes coordination less costly, which ultimately facilitates mediation occurrence and effectiveness. Surprisingly, existing quantitative research largely neglects any cultural ties the antagonists might share with the mediator. This article addresses this gap by offering one of the first joint analyses of fighting parties’ and mediators’ culture – and the interaction thereof. Based on existing work, a theoretical framework for mediation occurrence and effectiveness is developed and innovative measures for belligerents’ cultural ties and the links to the mediator are used. Contrary to expectations the results suggest that larger cultural distances between antagonists make mediation more likely, while cultural dissimilarities between them and the mediator have the opposite effect. Evidence is also found for a conditional effect between the two culture variables on mediation occurrence

Rekonvaleszenz der Demokratie? Die Erholung bürgerlicher Freiheitsrechte im internationalen Vergleich

Nach den Anschlägen vom 11. September 2001 wurden in einigen westlichen Demokratien bürgerliche Freiheitsrechte durch eine verschärfte Sicherheitsgesetzgebung empfindlich beschnitten. Allerdings zeigen sich im folgenden Jahrzehnt deutliche Erholungseffekte, die wiederum zwischen den Ländern variieren. Auf Grundlage von Daten u. a. des Demokratiebarometers gehen wir der Frage nach, welche Faktoren die unterschiedliche Erholung bürgerlicher Freiheitsrechte in 22 OECD-Staaten zwischen 2002 und 2012 erklären können. Dabei zeigt sich, dass ein starkes und unabhängiges Rechtssystem und eine liberale politische Kultur den Wiederaufbau von Freiheitsrechten fördern, während die Betroffenheit von terroristischen Anschlägen keinen signifikanten Effekt auf die Erholung der Freiheitsrechte hat. Die Ergebnisse sprechen dafür, dass Demokratien dann zu einer Selbstkorrektur im Bereich der Sicherheitsgesetzgebung fähig sind, wenn sie durch rechtsstaatliche Institutionen eingehegt werden, die durch eine liberale politische Kultur unterfüttert sind