Inflação e nível de atividade no Brasil: estimativas da curva de Phillips: Inflation and the level of activity in Brazil: Phillips curve estimates

O presente trabalho tem como objetivos principais estimar o nível do produto, em cada período de tempo, que manteria a inflação estável no Brasil (Nailo – Nonaccelerating Inflation Level of Output), e investigar a relação entre os desvios do produto em relação ao Nailo, medidos em termos percentuais, e a taxa de inflação. Para nós, como para alguns autores [Stock & Watson (1997)], o Nailo não deve ser confundido com o produto potencial, pois pode haver, ao longo do tempo, desvios transitórios do Nailo em relação ao produto potencial do país

The future of global sugar markets: Policies, reforms, and impact

"Sugar is one of the most highly protected agricultural commodities worldwide. This protection depresses trade opportunities and the prices received by exporters without preferential market access. For this reason, dialogues about sugar policy are often polarized and short sound bites caustic. Yet today's sugar markets are being driven by a complex array of dynamic and emerging supply, demand, and policy forces that need to be understood. A number of these forces have the potential to reshape the global market scene. Recent sugar policy reforms in the European Union (EU) have received little attention in North America but may turn the EU into a net importer, with substantial compensation paid to its farmers and displaced processing facilities. High oil prices and the related ethanol boom place Brazil at the fulcrum of new market developments. In the United States, corn sweetener and sugar markets are being integrated with Mexican markets under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), raising the question of whether the EU reforms provide a template for new policies. And among developing countries in Africa and elsewhere there are low-cost producers that would benefit from more open trade but others who would be disadvantaged by the loss of preferential markets. This discussion paper presents the proceedings of a one-day conference that served as a forum for the discussion of these and other critical issues affecting global sugar markets, policies, and reform options. The conference was attended by 60 representatives of governments, research institutions, producers and processors from the sugar sector, and other groups interested in sugar markets and policies. The four papers were presented by internationally recognized experts from the EU, Brazil, the United States, and South Africa. Discussion openers and general discussion at the conference added further policy insights, and the papers were edited and revised after the conference to reflect the dialogue that had occurred." from authors' abstractsugar, Ethanol, NAFTA, WTO, Trade policy,

ABERTURA COMERCIAL: COMPARAÇÃO ENTRE SIMULAÇÕES DE DIFERENTES MODELOS DE EQUILÍBRIO GERAL COMPUTÁVEL

O comércio internacional é marcado pelo elevado nível de protecionismo, contrariando o teorema das vantagens comparativas. A agricultura é o setor mais atingido, devido à existência, além de elevadas tarifas, de outros mecanismos de proteção comercial que fortalecem ainda mais as distorções do comércio internacional. Levando em conta a necessidade dos negociadores e governantes em informações robustas sobre o efeito da liberalização, o presente trabalho apresenta um estudo comparativo entre simulações de liberalização total e parcial utilizando diferentes modelos de equilíbrio geral computável. Com isso, foi possível identificar as convergências e divergências dos resultados, discernindo o que existe de robusto nesse assunto, e quais características dos modelos levam a conclusões distintas.----------------------------------------------International trade is determined by a high level of protectionism, contradicting the theorem of comparative advantage. Agriculture is the most sensible sector, due to, beyond high duties, other trade protection devices that strengthen even more the international trade distortions. Regard traders and government necessities of solid information about liberalization’s effects, in the present work a confrontation between simulations of total and partial liberalization was accomplished, using distinct Computable General Equilibrium model. Herewith, it was possible to identify the convergences and divergences of the results, distinguishing the robustness and characteristics of the models that leads to different conclusions

Implications of agricultural trade liberalization for the developing countries

The developing countries as a group could expect to experience only small welfare gains if they chose not to actively participate in agricultural trade liberalization and relied solely on the benefits of partial liberalization in the OECD countries. Participation along the lines of the Dunkel package, with the developing countries reducing positive assistance by less than the developed countries, would yield gains of the order of US $20 billion. More comprehensive participation in trade liberalization involving reductions of both positive and negative protection would almost triple these welfare gains. While some developing countries do not gain from trade liberalization even with full participation, the number of such countries and the magnitude of their losses are greatly reduced

Impacts of the U.S. subsidy to soybeans on World prices, production and exports

This paper specifies and estimates an econometric model of the soybean market (grain, oil and meal) to assess the effects of U.S. domestic support to soybeans on world soybean prices, production and exports. The model divides the world into five regions (modules): Argentina, Brazil, the European Union, the United States (US) and the Rest of the World (ROW). There are interactions between the modules through the international prices and the net exports of each soybean product. The international prices of grain, oil and meal are endogenous and are determined equating net exports of the first four modules (Argentina, Brazil, European Union and the U.S.) to net imports of the ROW. The analysis is conducted eliminating the U.S. domestic support to soybeans and simulating the impacts on the variables of interest. The simulations show a significant impact of the US subsidy to soybeans on world prices and net exports of the four selected regions