Increasing impacts of extreme droughts on vegetation productivity under climate change

Terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) is the basis of vegetation growth and food production globally1 and plays a critical role in regulating atmospheric CO2 through its impact on ecosystem carbon balance. Even though higher CO2 concentrations in future decades can increase GPP2, low soil water availability, heat stress and disturbances associated with droughts could reduce the benefits of such CO2 fertilization. Here we analysed outputs of 13 Earth system models to show an increasingly stronger impact on GPP by extreme droughts than by mild and moderate droughts over the twenty-first century. Due to a dramatic increase in the frequency of extreme droughts, the magnitude of globally averaged reductions in GPP associated with extreme droughts was projected to be nearly tripled by the last quarter of this century (2075–2099) relative to that of the historical period (1850–1999) under both high and intermediate GHG emission scenarios. By contrast, the magnitude of GPP reductions associated with mild and moderate droughts was not projected to increase substantially. Our analysis indicates a high risk of extreme droughts to the global carbon cycle with atmospheric warming; however, this risk can be potentially mitigated by positive anomalies of GPP associated with favourable environmental conditions

Coupled ice/ocean interactions during future retreat of West Antarctic ice streams in the Amundsen Sea sector

The Amundsen Sea sector has some of the fastest-thinning ice shelves in Antarctica, caused by high, ocean-driven basal melt rates, which can lead to increased ice stream flow, causing increased sea level rise (SLR) contributions. In this study, we present the results of a new synchronously coupled ice-sheet/ocean model of the Amundsen Sea sector. We use the WAVI ice sheet model to solve for ice velocities and the MITgcm to solve for ice thickness and three-dimensional ocean properties, allowing for full mass conservation in the coupled ice/ocean system. The coupled model is initialised in the present day and run forward under idealised warm and cold ocean conditions with a fixed ice front. We find that Thwaites Glacier dominates the future SLR from the Amundsen Sea sector, with a SLR that evolves approximately quadratically over time. The future evolution of Thwaites Glacier depends on the life-span of small pinning points that form during the retreat. The rate of melting around these pinning points provides the link between future ocean conditions and the SLR from this sector and will be difficult to capture without a coupled ice/ocean model. Grounding-line retreat leads to a progressively larger Thwaites iceshelf cavity, leading to a positive trend in total melting, resulting from the increased ice basal surface area. Despite these important sensitivities, Thwaites Glacier retreats even in a scenario with zero ocean-driven melting. This demonstrates that atipping point may have been passed in these simulations and some SLR from this sector is now committed

Benchmarking and parameter sensitivity of physiological and vegetation dynamics using the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) at Barro Colorado Island, Panama

Plant functional traits determine vegetation responses to environmental variation, but variation in trait values is large, even within a single site. Likewise, uncertainty in how these traits map to Earth system feedbacks is large. We use a vegetation demographic model (VDM), the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), to explore parameter sensitivity of model predictions, and comparison to observations, at a tropical forest site: Barro Colorado Island in Panama. We define a single 12-dimensional distribution of plant trait variation, derived primarily from observations in Panama, and define plant functional types (PFTs) as random draws from this distribution. We compare several model ensembles, where individual ensemble members vary only in the plant traits that define PFTs, and separate ensembles differ from each other based on either model structural assumptions or non-trait, ecosystem-level parameters, which include (a) the number of competing PFTs present in any simulation and (b) parameters that govern disturbance and height-based light competition. While single-PFT simulations are roughly consistent with observations of productivity at Barro Colorado Island, increasing the number of competing PFTs strongly shifts model predictions towards higher productivity and biomass forests. Different ecosystem variables show greater sensitivity than others to the number of competing PFTs, with the predictions that are most dominated by large trees, such as biomass, being the most sensitive. Changing disturbance and height-sorting parameters, i.e., the rules of competitive trait filtering, shifts regimes of dominance or coexistence between early- and late-successional PFTs in the model. Increases to the extent or severity of disturbance, or to the degree of determinism in height-based light competition, all act to shift the community towards early-successional PFTs. In turn, these shifts in competitive outcomes alter predictions of ecosystem states and fluxes, with more early-successional-dominated forests having lower biomass. It is thus crucial to differentiate between plant traits, which are under competitive pressure in VDMs, from those model parameters that are not and to better understand the relationships between these two types of model parameters to quantify sources of uncertainty in VDMs

Increasing impacts of extreme droughts on vegetation productivity under climate change

Terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) is the basis of vegetation growth and food production globally1 and plays a critical role in regulating atmospheric CO2 through its impact on ecosystem carbon balance. Even though higher CO2 concentrations in future decades can increase GPP2, low soil water availability, heat stress and disturbances associated with droughts could reduce the benefits of such CO2 fertilization. Here we analysed outputs of 13 Earth system models to show an increasingly stronger impact on GPP by extreme droughts than by mild and moderate droughts over the twenty-first century. Due to a dramatic increase in the frequency of extreme droughts, the magnitude of globally averaged reductions in GPP associated with extreme droughts was projected to be nearly tripled by the last quarter of this century (2075–2099) relative to that of the historical period (1850–1999) under both high and intermediate GHG emission scenarios. By contrast, the magnitude of GPP reductions associated with mild and moderate droughts was not projected to increase substantially. Our analysis indicates a high risk of extreme droughts to the global carbon cycle with atmospheric warming; however, this risk can be potentially mitigated by positive anomalies of GPP associated with favourable environmental conditions

Minocycline 200 mg or 400 mg versus placebo for mild Alzheimer's disease: the MADE Phase II, three-arm RCT

Background: Minocycline is an anti-inflammatory drug and protects against the toxic effects of β-amyloid in vitro and in animal models of Alzheimer’s disease. To the best of our knowledge, no randomised placebo-controlled clinical trials in patients with Alzheimer’s disease looking at the efficacy and tolerability of minocycline have been carried out. Objectives: The trial investigated whether or not minocycline was superior to placebo in slowing down the rate of decline in cognitive and functional ability over 2 years. The safety and tolerability of minocycline were also assessed. Design: A Phase II, three-arm, randomised, double-blind, multicentre trial with a semifactorial design. Participants continued on trial treatment for up to 24 months. Setting: Patients were identified from memory services, both within the 32 participating NHS trusts and within the network of memory services supported by the Dementias and Neurodegenerative Diseases Research Network (also known as DeNDRoN). Participants: Patients with standardised Mini Mental State Examination scores of > 23 points and with Alzheimer’s disease assessed by the National Institute on Aging–Alzheimer’s Association’s criteria were identified from memory services. Intervention: Patients with mild Alzheimer’s disease were randomly allocated 1 : 1 : 1 to receive one of three treatments: arm 1 – 400 mg per day of minocycline; arm 2 – 200 mg per day of minocycline; or arm 3 – placebo. Patients continued treatment for 24 months. Participants, investigators and outcome assessors were blind to treatment allocation. Main outcome measures: Primary outcome measures were decline in standardised Mini Mental State Examination and Bristol Activities of Daily Living Scale scores of combined minocycline treatment arms versus placebo, as analysed by intention-to-treat repeated measures regression. Results: Between 23 May 2014 and 14 April 2016, 554 participants were randomised. Of the 544 eligible participants, the mean age was 74.3 years and the average standardised Mini Mental State Examination score was 26.4 points. A total of 252 serious adverse events were reported, with the most common categories being neuropsychiatric and cardiocirculatory. Significantly fewer participants completed treatment with 400 mg of minocycline [29% (53/184)] than 200 mg [62% (112/181)] or placebo [64% (114/179)] (p < 0.0001), mainly because of gastrointestinal symptoms (p = 0.0008), dermatological side effects (p = 0.02) and dizziness (p = 0.01). Assessment rates were also lower in the 400-mg treatment arm: 68% (119 of 174 expected) for standardised Mini Mental State Examination scores at 24 months, compared with 82% (144/176) for the 200-mg treatment arm and 84% (140/167) for the placebo arm. Decline in standardised Mini Mental State Examination scores over the 24-month study period in the combined minocycline arms was similar to that in the placebo arm (4.1- vs. 4.3-point reduction; p = 0.9), as was the decline in the 400- and 200-mg treatment arms (3.3 vs. 4.7 points; p = 0.08). Likewise, worsening of Bristol Activities of Daily Living Scale scores over 24 months was similar in all trial arms (5.7, 6.6 and 6.2 points in the 400-mg treatment arm, 200-mg treatment arm and placebo arm, respectively; a p-value of 0.57 for minocycline vs. placebo and a p-value of 0.77 for 400 vs. 200 mg of minocycline). Results were similar in different patient subgroups and in sensitivity analyses adjusting for missing data. Limitations: Potential limitations of the study include that biomarkers were not used to confirm the diagnosis of Alzheimer’s disease, as these and apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotyping are not routinely available within the NHS. Compliance was also worse than expected and differential follow-up rates were observed, with fewer assessments obtained for the 400-mg treatment arm than for the 200-mg treatment and placebo arms. Conclusions: Minocycline does not delay the progress of cognitive or functional impairment in people with mild Alzheimer’s disease over a 2-year period. Minocycline at a dose of 400 mg is poorly tolerated in this population. Future work: The Minocycline in mild Alzheimer’s DiseasE (MADE) study provides a framework for a streamlined trial design that can be usefully applied to test other disease-modifying therapies

Future climate doubles the risk of hydraulic failure in a wet tropical forest

Future climate presents conflicting implications for forest biomass. We evaluate how plant hydraulic traits, elevated CO2 levels, warming, and changes in precipitation affect forest primary productivity, evapotranspiration, and the risk of hydraulic failure. We used a dynamic vegetation model with plant hydrodynamics (FATES-HYDRO) to simulate the stand-level responses to future climate changes in a wet tropical forest in Barro Colorado Island, Panama. We calibrated the model by selecting plant trait assemblages that performed well against observations. These assemblages were run with temperature and precipitation changes for two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (2086-2100: SSP2-45, SSP5-85) and two CO2 levels (contemporary, anticipated). The risk of hydraulic failure is projected to increase from a contemporary rate of 5.7% to 10.1-11.3% under future climate scenarios, and, crucially, elevated CO2 provided only slight amelioration. By contrast, elevated CO2 mitigated GPP reductions. We attribute a greater variation in hydraulic failure risk to trait assemblages than to either CO2 or climate. Our results project forests with both faster growth (through productivity increases) and higher mortality rates (through increasing rates of hydraulic failure) in the neo-tropics accompanied by certain trait plant assemblages becoming nonviable

WAVI.jl: Ice Sheet Modelling in Julia

Ice sheet models are used to improve our understanding of the past, present, and future evolution of ice sheets. To do so, they solve the equations describing the flow of ice when forced by other climate elements, particularly the atmosphere and oceans. We present WAVI.jl, an ice sheet model written in Julia. WAVI.jl is designed to make ice sheet modelling more accessible to beginners and low-level users, whilst including sufficient detail to be used for addressing cutting-edge research questions

Linking hydraulic traits to tropical forest function in a size-structured and trait-driven model (TFS v.1-Hydro)

Forest ecosystem models based on heuristic water stress functions poorly predict tropical forest response to drought partly because they do not capture the diversity of hydraulic traits (including variation in tree size) observed in tropical forests. We developed a continuous porous media approach to modeling plant hydraulics in which all parameters of the constitutive equations are biologically interpretable and measurable plant hydraulic traits (e.g., turgor loss point πtlp, bulk elastic modulus ε, hydraulic capacitance Cft, xylem hydraulic conductivity ks,max, water potential at 50 % loss of conductivity for both xylem (P50,x) and stomata (P50,gs), and the leaf : sapwood area ratio Al : As). We embedded this plant hydraulics model within a trait forest simulator (TFS) that models light environments of individual trees and their upper boundary conditions (transpiration), as well as providing a means for parameterizing variation in hydraulic traits among individuals. We synthesized literature and existing databases to parameterize all hydraulic traits as a function of stem and leaf traits, including wood density (WD), leaf mass per area (LMA), and photosynthetic capacity (Amax), and evaluated the coupled model (called TFS v.1-Hydro) predictions, against observed diurnal and seasonal variability in stem and leaf water potential as well as stand-scaled sap flux.Our hydraulic trait synthesis revealed coordination among leaf and xylem hydraulic traits and statistically significant relationships of most hydraulic traits with more easily measured plant traits. Using the most informative empirical trait–trait relationships derived from this synthesis, TFS v.1-Hydro successfully captured individual variation in leaf and stem water potential due to increasing tree size and light environment, with model representation of hydraulic architecture and plant traits exerting primary and secondary controls, respectively, on the fidelity of model predictions. The plant hydraulics model made substantial improvements to simulations of total ecosystem transpiration. Remaining uncertainties and limitations of the trait paradigm for plant hydraulics modeling are highlighted