Atrial fibrillation after gastrointestinal surgery: incidence and associated risk factors

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common dysrhythmia that can occur after major physiological stress including surgery (postoperative AF). There are few data on postoperative AF after abdominal surgery. We set out to define the incidence of de novo postoperative AF after abdominal surgery and associated risk factors. METHODS: The Patient History Integrated Data store administrative database was interrogated for patients aged ≥65 y undergoing abdominal surgery from April 2012 to April 2014. Patients with pre-existing AF were excluded. The primary outcome was diagnosis of AF. RESULTS: Two thousand nine hundred and sixty-seven cases were included of whom 187 developed postoperative AF within 90 d (6.3%). The rate of postoperative AF varied by operation and was highest in small bowel resection (17.2%) and lowest in biliary surgery (4.8%). Median time to detection of postoperative AF was 32 d. Patients who developed postoperative AF were significantly older than those who did not develop AF (median age 75.3 y versus 72.4 y, P < 0.01). Logistic regression modeling found increasing age (odds ratio [OR] 1.03 [confidence interval {CI} 1.01-1.06], hypertension OR 1.73 [CI 1.19-2.51]), congestive cardiac failure (OR 3.04 [CI 1.88-4.92], and vascular disease OR 2.29 [CI 1.39-3.37]) were predictive of the development of postoperative AF within 30 d. The area under the curve for this model was 0.733. CONCLUSIONS: Postoperative AF affects a significant number of patients after abdominal surgery. Demographics such as history of cardiovascular disease might aid prediction of postoperative AF. Postoperative AF is mostly identified after discharge, suggesting the need for postoperative screening

UK-based, multisite, prospective cohort study of small bowel obstruction in acute surgical services: National Audit of Small Bowel Obstruction (NASBO) protocol

Introduction Small bowel obstruction (SBO) is a common indication for emergency laparotomy in the UK, which is associated with a 90-day mortality rate of 13%. There are currently no UK clinical guidelines for the management of this condition. The aim of this multicentre prospective cohort study is to describe the burden, variation in management and associated outcomes of SBO in the UK adult population. Methods and analysis UK hospitals providing emergency general surgery are eligible to participate. This study has three components: (1) a clinical preference questionnaire to be completed by consultants providing emergency general surgical care to assesses preferences in diagnostics and therapeutic approaches, including laparoscopy and nutritional interventions; (2) site resource profile questionnaire to indicate ease of access to diagnostic services, operating theatres, nutritional support teams and postoperative support including intensive care; (3) prospective cohort study of all cases of SBO admitted during an 8-week period at participating trusts. Data on diagnostics, operative and nutritional interventions, and in-hospital mortality and morbidity will be captured, followed by data validation. Ethics and dissemination This will be conducted as a national audit of practice in conjunction with trainee research collaboratives, with support from patient representatives, surgeons, anaesthetists, gastroenterologists and a clinical trials unit. Site-specific reports will be provided to each participant site as well as an overall report to be disseminated through specialist societies. Results will be published in a formal project report endorsed by stakeholders, and in peer-reviewed scientific reports. Key findings will be debated at a focused national meeting with a view to quality improvement initiatives

Screening for malnutrition in emergency laparotomy patients: a comparison of three tools

Introduction: Malnourished patients undergoing emergency laparotomy are at risk of significant morbidity. The optimum screening tool to identify such patients in practice and research is yet to be determined. This study aims to compare the performance of three nutrition risk tools in predicting time without enteral nutrition in this population. Methods: A prospective cohort study (NCT04696367) was conducted across two sites, recruiting patients undergoing National Emergency Laparotomy Audit eligible procedures. Data collected included demographics, diagnosis, procedure and outcomes. Nutrition risk was assessed using three tools: Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool (MUST) score, Nutritional Risk Index (NRI) and Nutritional Risk Score 2002 (NRS-2002). Complications were assessed with the Comprehensive Complication Index. Quality of life was measured at baseline and 5 days postsurgery using EQ-5D-5L. Results: A total of 59 patients were recruited. Median age was 69 years. Of the 59 participants, 23 were judged high risk using MUST score, 13 using NRS and 8 using NRI. Median time to restart enteral intake was 7 days (interquartile range 7–14). Time without intake was correlated with increasing score using MUST (r=0.463, p<0.001) and NRS-2002 (r=0.296, p=0.03) but not NRI (r=−0.121, p=0.38). High-risk nutritional groups also had increased length of hospital stay, but not complication scores. Conclusions: Patients undergoing emergency laparotomy spend a prolonged time without enteral nutrition. Although all nutritional tools demonstrated some propensity to identify patients at higher risk of needing nutritional support, their performance was variable. Nevertheless, some may be useful in future clinical studies

Use of MRI in the diagnosis of fetal brain abnormalities in utero (MERIDIAN): a multicentre, prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: In-utero MRI (iuMRI) has shown promise as an adjunct to ultrasound but the comparative diagnostic performance has been poorly defined. We aimed to assess whether the diagnostic accuracy and confidence of the prenatal diagnosis of fetal brain abnormalities is improved with iuMRI and assess the clinical impact and patient acceptability of iuMRI. METHODS: We did a multicentre, prospective, cohort study in the UK, at 16 fetal medicine centres, of pregnant women aged 16 years or older whose fetus had a brain abnormality detected by ultrasound at a gestational age of 18 weeks or more, had no contraindications to iuMRI, and consented to enter the study. Women carrying a fetus suspected of having a brain anomaly on ultrasound had iuMRI done within 14 days of ultrasound. The findings were reviewed by two independent panels and used to estimate diagnostic accuracy and confidence by comparison with outcome diagnoses. Changes in diagnosis, prognosis, and clinical management brought about by iuMRI and patient acceptability were assessed. FINDINGS: Participants were recruited between July 29, 2011, and Aug 31, 2014. The cohort was subdivided by gestation into the 18 weeks to less than 24 weeks fetus cohort (n=369) and into the 24 weeks or older fetus cohort (n=201). Diagnostic accuracy was improved by 23% (95% CI 18-27) in the 18 weeks to less than 24 weeks group and 29% (23-36) in the 24 weeks and older group (p<0·0001 for both groups). The overall diagnostic accuracy was 68% for ultrasound and 93% for iuMRI (difference 25%, 95% CI 21-29). Dominant diagnoses were reported with high confidence on ultrasound in 465 (82%) of 570 cases compared with 544 (95%) of 570 cases on iuMRI. IuMRI provided additional diagnostic information in 387 (49%) of 783 cases, changed prognostic information in at least 157 (20%), and led to changes in clinical management in more than one in three cases. IuMRI also had high patient acceptability with at least 95% of women saying they would have an iuMRI study if a future pregnancy were complicated by a fetal brain abnormality. INTERPRETATION: iuMRI improves diagnostic accuracy and confidence for fetal brain anomalies and leads to management changes in a high proportion of cases. This finding, along with the high patient acceptability, leads us to propose that any fetus with a suspected brain abnormality on ultrasound should have iuMRI to better inform counselling and management decisions. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme

Protocol for the ORION trial (RadiO fRequency ablatION for haemorrhoids): a randomised controlled trial

Background Haemorrhoids are common and can significantly impact the personal and working lives of individuals. Those with more severe symptoms and those not responding to conservative management may require surgery. Current surgical techniques are associated with a degree of postoperative discomfort which may delay return to normal activity. Recurrence is lower in more radical procedures but resulting pain is higher. Radiofrequency ablation (RFA) is a new technique that is gaining popularity and has several hypothesised benefits, including reduced pain and recurrence. However, available evidence is limited. A recent overview from the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence recommended more research, in the form of randomised controlled trials, be carried out before further investment is made by national health services. Our aim is to assess whether RFA is at least as good in terms of recurrence as existing surgical interventions, but superior in terms of pain, for patients with symptomatic grade II and III haemorrhoids. Methods The RadiO fRequency ablatION for haemorrhoids (ORION) trial will be a pragmatic multicentre patient/assessorblind parallel group-controlled trial with economic evaluation. The target sample size is 376 participants (188 per arm) and is based on two co-primary endpoints: (i) a non-inferiority design for recurrence and (ii) superiority design for pain at seven days. Participants with grade II or III haemorrhoids will be recruited in 16 National Health Service hospitals and randomised (1:1) to either RFA or surgeon’s choice of surgery. Conclusions Results will inform future practice for the treatment of grade II–III haemorrhoids and provide evidence for national health services on future investments in RFA

MRI in the diagnosis of fetal developmental brain abnormalities : the MERIDIAN diagnostic accuracy study

Background: Ultrasonography has been the mainstay of antenatal screening programmes in the UK for many years. Technical factors and physical limitations may result in suboptimal images that can lead to incorrect diagnoses and inaccurate counselling and prognostic information being given to parents. Previous studies suggest that the addition of in utero magnetic resonance imaging (iuMRI) may improve diagnostic accuracy for fetal brain abnormalities. These studies have limitations, including a lack of an outcome reference diagnosis (ORD), which means that improvements could not be assessed accurately. Objectives: To assess the diagnostic impact, acceptability and cost consequence of iuMRI among fetuses with a suspected fetal brain abnormality. Design: A pragmatic, prospective, multicentre, cohort study with a health economics analysis and a sociological substudy. Setting: Sixteen UK fetal medicine centres. Participants: Pregnant women aged ≥ 16 years carrying a fetus (at least 18 weeks’ gestation) with a suspected brain abnormality detected on ultrasonography. Interventions: Participants underwent iuMRI and the findings were reported to their referring fetal medicine clinician. Main outcome measures: Pregnancy outcome was followed up and an ORD from postnatal imaging or postmortem autopsy/imaging collected when available. Developmental data from the Bayley Scales of Infant Development and questionnaires were collected from the surviving infants aged 2–3 years. Data on the management of the pregnancy before and after the iuMRI were collected to inform the economic evaluation. Two surveys collected data on patient acceptability of iuMRI and qualitative interviews with participants and health professionals were undertaken. Results: The primary analysis consisted of 570 fetuses. The absolute diagnostic accuracies of ultrasonography and iuMRI were 68% and 93%, respectively [a difference of 25%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 21% to 29%]. The difference between ultrasonography and iuMRI increased with gestational age. In the 18–23 weeks group, the figures were 70% for ultrasonography and 92% for iuMRI (difference of 23%, 95% CI 18% to 27%); in the ≥ 24 weeks group, the figures were 65% for ultrasonography and 94% for iuMRI (difference of 29%, 95% CI 23% to 36%). Patient acceptability was high, with at least 95% of respondents stating that they would have iuMRI again in a similar situation. Health professional interviews suggested that iuMRI was acceptable to clinicians and that iuMRI was useful as an adjunct to ultrasonography, but not as a replacement. Across a range of scenarios, iuMRI resulted in additional costs compared with ultrasonography alone. The additional cost was consistently < £600 per patient and the cost per management decision appropriately changed was always < £3000. There is potential for reporting bias from the referring clinicians on the diagnostic and prognostic outcomes. Lower than anticipated follow-up rates at 3 years of age were observed. Conclusions: iuMRI as an adjunct to ultrasonography significantly improves the diagnostic accuracy and confidence for the detection of fetal brain abnormalities. An evaluation of the use of iuMRI for cases of isolated microcephaly and the diagnosis of fetal spine abnormalities is recommended. Longer-term follow-up studies of children diagnosed with fetal brain abnormalities are required to fully assess the functional significance of the diagnoses. Trial registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN27626961

Prehospital early warning scores for adults with suspected sepsis: retrospective diagnostic cohort study

Background Ambulance services need to identify and prioritise patients with sepsis for early hospital assessment. We aimed to determine the accuracy of early warning scores alongside paramedic diagnostic impression to identify sepsis that required urgent treatment. Methods We undertook a retrospective diagnostic cohort study involving adult emergency medical cases transported to Sheffield Teaching Hospitals ED by Yorkshire Ambulance Service in 2019. We used routine ambulance service data to calculate 21 early warning scores and categorise paramedic diagnostic impressions as sepsis, infection, non-specific presentation or other presentation. We linked cases to hospital records and identified those meeting the sepsis-3 definition who received urgent hospital treatment for sepsis (reference standard). Analysis determined the accuracy of strategies that combined early warning scores at varying thresholds for positivity with paramedic diagnostic impression. Results We linked 12 870/24 955 (51.6%) cases and identified 348/12 870 (2.7%) with a positive reference standard. None of the strategies provided sensitivity greater than 0.80 with positive predictive value greater than 0.15. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the National Early Warning Score, version 2 (NEWS2) applied to patients with a diagnostic impression of sepsis or infection was 0.756 (95% CI 0.729, 0.783). No other early warning score provided clearly superior accuracy to NEWS2. Paramedic impression of sepsis or infection had sensitivity of 0.572 (0.519, 0.623) and positive predictive value of 0.156 (0.137, 0.176). NEWS2 thresholds of >4, >6 and >8 applied to patients with a diagnostic impression of sepsis or infection, respectively, provided sensitivities and positive predictive values of 0.522 (0.469, 0.574) and 0.216 (0.189, 0.245), 0.447 (0.395, 0.499) and 0.274 (0.239, 0.313), and 0.314 (0.268, 0.365) and 0.333 (0.284, 0.386). Conclusion No strategy is ideal but using NEWS2 alongside paramedic diagnostic impression of infection or sepsis could identify one-third to half of sepsis cases without prioritising unmanageable numbers. No other score provided clearly superior accuracy to NEWS2

Prehospital early warning scores for adults with suspected sepsis: the PHEWS observational cohort and decision-analytic modelling study

Background Guidelines for sepsis recommend treating those at highest risk within 1 hour. The emergency care system can only achieve this if sepsis is recognised and prioritised. Ambulance services can use prehospital early warning scores alongside paramedic diagnostic impression to prioritise patients for treatment or early assessment in the emergency department. Objectives To determine the accuracy, impact and cost-effectiveness of using early warning scores alongside paramedic diagnostic impression to identify sepsis requiring urgent treatment. Design Retrospective diagnostic cohort study and decision-analytic modelling of operational consequences and cost-effectiveness. Setting Two ambulance services and four acute hospitals in England. Participants Adults transported to hospital by emergency ambulance, excluding episodes with injury, mental health problems, cardiac arrest, direct transfer to specialist services, or no vital signs recorded. Interventions Twenty-one early warning scores used alongside paramedic diagnostic impression, categorised as sepsis, infection, non-specific presentation, or other specific presentation. Main outcome measures Proportion of cases prioritised at the four hospitals; diagnostic accuracy for the sepsis-3 definition of sepsis and receiving urgent treatment (primary reference standard); daily number of cases with and without sepsis prioritised at a large and a small hospital; the minimum treatment effect associated with prioritisation at which each strategy would be cost-effective, compared to no prioritisation, assuming willingness to pay £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained. Results Data from 95,022 episodes involving 71,204 patients across four hospitals showed that most early warning scores operating at their pre-specified thresholds would prioritise more than 10% of cases when applied to non-specific attendances or all attendances. Data from 12,870 episodes at one hospital identified 348 (2.7%) with the primary reference standard. The National Early Warning Score, version 2 (NEWS2), had the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve when applied only to patients with a paramedic diagnostic impression of sepsis or infection (0.756, 95% confidence interval 0.729 to 0.783) or sepsis alone (0.655, 95% confidence interval 0.63 to 0.68). None of the strategies provided high sensitivity (> 0.8) with acceptable positive predictive value (> 0.15). NEWS2 provided combinations of sensitivity and specificity that were similar or superior to all other early warning scores. Applying NEWS2 to paramedic diagnostic impression of sepsis or infection with thresholds of > 4, > 6 and > 8 respectively provided sensitivities and positive predictive values (95% confidence interval) of 0.522 (0.469 to 0.574) and 0.216 (0.189 to 0.245), 0.447 (0.395 to 0.499) and 0.274 (0.239 to 0.313), and 0.314 (0.268 to 0.365) and 0.333 (confidence interval 0.284 to 0.386). The mortality relative risk reduction from prioritisation at which each strategy would be cost-effective exceeded 0.975 for all strategies analysed. Limitations We estimated accuracy using a sample of older patients at one hospital. Reliable evidence was not available to estimate the effectiveness of prioritisation in the decision-analytic modelling. Conclusions No strategy is ideal but using NEWS2, in patients with a paramedic diagnostic impression of infection or sepsis could identify one-third to half of sepsis cases without prioritising unmanageable numbers. No other score provided clearly superior accuracy to NEWS2. Research is needed to develop better definition, diagnosis and treatments for sepsis. Study registration This study is registered as Research Registry (reference: researchregistry5268). Funding This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme (NIHR award ref: 17/136/10) and is published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 28, No. 16. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information

Structured lifestyle education to support weight loss for people with schizophrenia, schizoaffective disorder and first episode psychosis: the STEPWISE RCT.

BACKGROUND: Obesity is twice as common in people with schizophrenia as in the general population. The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidance recommends that people with psychosis or schizophrenia, especially those taking antipsychotics, be offered a healthy eating and physical activity programme by their mental health care provider. There is insufficient evidence to inform how these lifestyle services should be commissioned. OBJECTIVES: To develop a lifestyle intervention for people with first episode psychosis or schizophrenia and to evaluate its clinical effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, delivery and acceptability. DESIGN: A two-arm, analyst-blind, parallel-group, randomised controlled trial, with a 1 : 1 allocation ratio, using web-based randomisation; a mixed-methods process evaluation, including qualitative case study methods and logic modelling; and a cost-utility analysis. SETTING: Ten community mental health trusts in England. PARTICIPANTS: People with first episode psychosis, schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder. INTERVENTIONS: Intervention group: (1) four 2.5-hour group-based structured lifestyle self-management education sessions, 1 week apart; (2) multimodal fortnightly support contacts; (3) three 2.5-hour group booster sessions at 3-monthly intervals, post core sessions. Control group: usual care assessed through a longitudinal survey. All participants received standard written lifestyle information. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was change in weight (kg) at 12 months post randomisation. The key secondary outcomes measured at 3 and 12 months included self-reported nutrition (measured with the Dietary Instrument for Nutrition Education questionnaire), objectively measured physical activity measured by accelerometry [GENEActiv (Activinsights, Kimbolton, UK)], biomedical measures, adverse events, patient-reported outcome measures and a health economic assessment. RESULTS: The trial recruited 414 participants (intervention arm: 208 participants; usual care: 206 participants) between 10 March 2015 and 31 March 2016. A total of 341 participants (81.6%) completed the trial. A total of 412 participants were analysed. After 12 months, weight change did not differ between the groups (mean difference 0.0 kg, 95% confidence interval -1.59 to 1.67 kg; p = 0.964); physical activity, dietary intake and biochemical measures were unchanged. Glycated haemoglobin, fasting glucose and lipid profile were unchanged by the intervention. Quality of life, psychiatric symptoms and illness perception did not change during the trial. There were three deaths, but none was related to the intervention. Most adverse events were expected and related to the psychiatric illness. The process evaluation showed that the intervention was acceptable, with participants valuing the opportunity to interact with others facing similar challenges. Session feedback indicated that 87.2% of participants agreed that the sessions had met their needs. Some indicated the desire for more ongoing support. Professionals felt that the intervention was under-resourced and questioned the long-term sustainability within current NHS settings. Professionals would have preferred greater access to participants' behaviour data to tailor the intervention better. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio from the health-care perspective is £246,921 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio from the societal perspective is £367,543 per QALY gained. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the challenges of undertaking clinical research in this population, the trial successfully recruited and retained participants, indicating a high level of interest in weight management interventions; however, the STEPWISE intervention was neither clinically effective nor cost-effective. Further research will be required to define how overweight and obesity in people with schizophrenia should be managed. The trial results suggest that lifestyle programmes for people with schizophrenia may need greater resourcing than for other populations, and interventions that have been shown to be effective in other populations, such as people with diabetes mellitus, are not necessarily effective in people with schizophrenia. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN19447796. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 22, No. 65. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information

Protocol for diaphragm pacing in patients with respiratory muscle weakness due to motor neurone disease (DiPALS): a randomised controlled trial

Background Motor neurone disease (MND) is a devastating illness which leads to muscle weakness and death, usually within 2-3 years of symptom onset. Respiratory insufficiency is a common cause of morbidity, particularly in later stages of MND and respiratory complications are the leading cause of mortality in MND patients. Non Invasive Ventilation (NIV) is the current standard therapy to manage respiratory insufficiency. Some MND patients however do not tolerate NIV due to a number of issues including mask interface problems and claustrophobia. In those that do tolerate NIV, eventually respiratory muscle weakness will progress to a point at which intermittent/overnight NIV is ineffective. The NeuRx RA/4 Diaphragm Pacing System was originally developed for patients with respiratory insufficiency and diaphragm paralysis secondary to stable high spinal cord injuries. The DiPALS study will assess the effect of diaphragm pacing (DP) when used to treat patients with MND and respiratory insufficiency. Method/Design 108 patients will be recruited to the study at 5 sites in the UK. Patients will be randomised to either receive NIV (current standard care) or receive DP in addition to NIV. Study participants will be required to complete outcome measures at 5 follow up time points (2, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months) plus an additional surgery and 1 week post operative visit for those in the DP group. 12 patients (and their carers) from the DP group will also be asked to complete 2 qualitative interviews. Discussion The primary objective of this trial will be to evaluate the effect of Diaphragm Pacing (DP) on survival over the study duration in patients with MND with respiratory muscle weakness. The project is funded by the National Institute for Health Research, Health Technology Assessment (HTA) Programme (project number 09/55/33) and the Motor Neurone Disease Association and the Henry Smith Charity. Trial Registration: Current controlled trials ISRCTN53817913. The views and opinions expressed therein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the HTA programme, NIHR, NHS or the Department of Health