Border Price Shocks, Spatial Price Variation, and their Impacts on Poverty in Uganda

How does an increase in food prices at the border impact poverty in Uganda given the strong spatial heterogeneity of the country and its limited domestic transportation and communication networks? Recently, a number of studies on the impact of international food prices on poverty in developing countries have been published. However, the role of spatial price transmission in this context remains largely unexplored. This paper targets that niche. We assess the spatial variability and transmission of prices through the analysis of time series and household data using descriptive statistics and regression methods. Subsequently, we apply the findings in a simulation experiment to determine the first-order poverty impacts of a hypothetical 50% increase in border prices for food under the assumption of imperfect spatial price transmission. The poverty results show impacts substantially different from those of a perfect price transmission scenario and also display strong regional differentiation.Uganda, food prices, poverty, spatial price transmission

The Economic Partnership Agreement between Uganda and the EU: Trade and Poverty Impacts

This paper analyses the poverty impacts of an economic partnership agreement (EPA) between Uganda and the EU. As Ugandan exports are also eligible for duty-free access to the EU under the Everything But Arms scheme the main EPA-induced change will be the requirement to liberalise EU exporters' access to the Ugandan market. Fears have been raised that this could threaten the livelihoods of poor people through lower prices for agricultural commodities, crowding out of vulnerable industries, and loss of government revenue. In an attempt to address these concerns, we assess the impact potential of an EPA using descriptive statistics of Ugandan trade, social accounting matrix, and household budget survey data. Subsequently, we quantify the impacts on the economy and poverty, in particular, by conducting a simulation study based on a combined CGE-microsimulation model. The descriptive analysis suggests very limited scope for trade liberalisation with the EU and that the poor, in particular, have only weak links to formal markets. The results from the simulation of alternative EPA scenarios show minor but positive macroeconomic impacts indicating potentially low economic adjustment costs. Whether the very small poverty effects emerge positive or not depends on the selection of sensitive products in the EPA. Nevertheless, the very poorest appear to lose under all scenarios.economic partnership agreements, Uganda, poverty, CGE, microsimulation

Economies of Scale in Production versus Diseconomies in Transportation: On Structural Change in the German Dairy Industry

This paper analyzes the structural change in the German dairy sector using a sector-wide optimization model. In particular, the model includes a spatially explicit representation of dairy processing farms and dairy farming regions to account for the trade-off between economies of scale in dairy production and diseconomies of scale in transportation. We simulate cost-optimal sectoral structures for different time horizons and various transport cost levels. The results demonstrate that the model is able to explain the trend towards fewer but larger dairies as currently observed in reality and indicate, ceteris paribus, a continuation of this trend. However, if the importance of transport costs increases relative to other costs in dairy production this trend might level off. The structural impacts found differ markedly by region.Capacitated facility location problem, structural change, transportation, simulation

zum Strukturwandel in der Milchindustrie

In this article, we simulate the concentration process within the German dairy sector employing a sector–wide optimization model. As a result, we get cost minimizing structures of the dairy sector for various time horizons depending on varying levels of transportation costs. We show that the model is capable of describing the current trend characterized by a decrease of the number of dairies while average capacity increases and that – ceteris paribus – this trend is likely to continue. In contrast, the trend may weaken or reverse if transportation costs rise in comparison to other types of costs

Economies of Scale in der Produktion versus Diseconomies im Transport: Zum Strukturwandel im Molkereisektor

In this article, we simulate structural change within the German dairy sector employing a sector-wide optimization model. As a result, we obtain cost minimizing structures of the dairy sector for various scenarios differentiated by time horizon and level of transportation cost. We demonstrate that the model is capable of explaining the current trend which is characterized by a decrease in the number of dairies while average capacity is increasing. However, this development is less pronounced if transportation cost rises relative to other costs.capacitated facility location problem, market structure, transportation, Agribusiness, Production Economics,

Poverty Impacts of an Economic Partnership Agreement between Uganda and the EU

This paper analyzes the poverty impacts of an economic partnership agreement (EPA) between Uganda and the EU. As Ugandan exports are also eligible for duty-free access to the EU under the Everything But Arms scheme the main impact of the EPA will be to require liberalization of EU exporters’ access to the Ugandan market. There are fears this could threaten the incomes of poor people through lower prices for agricultural commodities, the crowding out of vulnerable industries, and loss of government revenue. We examine these fears by means of a qualitative analysis using data from a 1999 social accounting matrix of the Ugandan economy and the 2002/2003 household budget survey. We then quantify the effects on the economy and poverty employing a combined CGE-microsimulation model. The qualitative analysis shows that the scope for trade liberalization with the EU is very limited and that particularly the poor have only weak links to formal markets. The quantitative analysis suggests that the macroeconomic impacts of an EPA are minor but positive, implying that the economic adjustment costs might turn out to be low. Whether the very small poverty effects are positive or not depends on the selection of sensitive products in the EPA, although under all scenarios the very poorest appear to lose.

Measuring the impact of trade policy reform in Ireland: A disaggregated analysis of household impacts

The purpose of this paper is to assess the impacts of further trade liberalisation on the agricultural sector in Ireland. In addition to evaluating the aggregate impacts on agricultural production as well as the spill-over effect of this on the non-agricultural sector and for overall Irish GDP, we evaluate the effects for different types of households. In order to capture economy-wide impacts of the policy reform, a CGE model was formulated and implemented using a social accounting matrix constructed for Ireland for the year 2005. Household effects are captured using representative households. The simulation results suggest a positive impact on the Irish economy as well as on the representative households. Many agricultural sectors contract in the process but a more efficient reallocation of resources into manufacturing and services sectors more than compensates those losses.Trade policy, CAP reform, CGE model, Macro and welfare effects, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, F13, D58, I3,

En tvärsnittsstudie kring sambandet mellan hälsa, tillfredsställelse med aktivitet, aktivitetsnivå och aktivitetsbalans hos arbetsterapeut- och ingenjörsstudenter

Bakgrund: Hälsorelaterade besvär såsom stress, koncentrationssvårigheter och psykisk ohälsa är ett växande problem hos svenska högskolestudenter. Ur ett arbetsterapeutiskt perspektiv är delaktighet i ett balanserat och tillfredsställande aktivitetsmönster en förutsättning för hälsa. Trots detta har inga studier genomförts kring sambandet mellan hälsa och aktivitetsbalans hos målgruppen. Syfte: Det primära syftet var att undersöka sambandet mellan självskattad hälsa, tillfredsställelse med aktivitet, aktivitetsnivå och aktivitetsbalans samt att jämföra dessa variabler mellan arbetsterapeut- och ingenjörsstudenter. Ett ytterligare syfte var att jämföra dessa variabler hos studenter som övervägt respektive inte övervägt studieavbrott. Metod: 97 högskolestudenter fick svara på en enkät utformad från Short Form (36) Health Survey (SF-36) och Satisfaction with Daily Occupations and Occupational Balance (SDOOB). Insamlade data bearbetades med icke-parametrisk statistik. Resultat: Det fanns ett positivt samband mellan självskattad hälsa, tillfredsställelse med aktivitet, aktivitetsnivå och generell aktivitetsbalans. Jämförelsen mellan arbetsterapeut- och ingenjörsstudenter visade inga större skillnader. Däremot fanns det skillnader mellan studenter som övervägt respektive inte övervägt studieavbrott, där studenter som avvägt studieavbrott skattade signifikant lägre på de undersökta variablerna. Konklusion: Det behövs vidare studier kring svenska högskolestudenters hälsa, tillfredsställelse med aktivitet, aktivitetsnivå och aktivitetsbalans samt vilka arbetsterapeutiska interventioner som kan främja dessa faktorer

COVID-19: socioeconomic impacts and recovery in Ethiopia

This technical report assesses the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for the economic performance and poverty incidence in Ethiopia for 2019/20 and 2020/21. It takes into account the impacts of the pandemic on four channels: a) factor productivity, b) trade costs, c) export demand and tourism, and d) remittances and FDI. Through the inclusion of the Ethiopian government responses of stimulus spending, job protection and business support, the report evaluates the effectiveness of these measures for the economic recovery to pre-COVID-19 pathways. By using a macroeconomic multi-sectoral model, the study includes results at national (GDP, supply, demand, trade), sectoral (output and prices) and household (welfare) levels. The household food expenditure results are then included as income measures in a poverty analysis module to further characterise the effects of the pandemic on poverty headcount, gap and severity. In annualised terms, the modelling results show that the COVID-19 impacts could have been significant across all macroeconomic metrics had the government not intervened. The GDP would have decreased from pre-COVID-19 projections by -11.1% in 2019/20 and -6.7% in 2020/21, with severe implications for employment and household welfare. The government response consisting in increased spending (healthcare and food programmes) and salary payments to prevent job losses may have had an important role in improving the macroeconomic outcomes of the pandemic in 2019/20. Nevertheless, much of the aggregate recovery (GDP, employment and welfare) is driven by agriculture as output in most manufacturing, construction and services sectors continue to be affected by productivity shocks and low demand. Therefore, employment and output outside agriculture could still be below the pre-COVID-19 projections even when additional business support measures are included. Without government intervention, the poverty headcount would have increased by about 5% in total population. The government measures are projected to mitigate that effect to a large extent and to allow national poverty levels to reach pre-COVID-19 values in 2020/21 or to even fall below in case of an enhanced business stimulus package from the government. Nevertheless, poor urban households continue to be negatively affected and would require more targeted support.JRC.D.4-Economics of Agricultur