Range safety signal propagation through the SRM exhaust plume of the space shuttle

Theoretical predictions of plume interference for the space shuttle range safety system by solid rocket booster exhaust plumes are reported. The signal propagation was calculated using a split operator technique based upon the Fresnel-Kirchoff integral, using fast Fourier transforms to evaluate the convolution and treating the plume as a series of absorbing and phase-changing screens. Talanov's lens transformation was applied to reduce aliasing problems caused by ray divergence

Electron flux models for different energies at geostationary orbit

Forecast models were derived for energetic electrons at all energy ranges sampled by the third-generation Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES). These models were based on Multi-Input Single-Output Nonlinear Autoregressive Moving Average with Exogenous inputs methodologies. The model inputs include the solar wind velocity, density and pressure, the fraction of time that the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was southward, the IMF contribution of a solar wind-magnetosphere coupling function proposed by Boynton et al. (2011b), and the Dst index. As such, this study has deduced five new 1 h resolution models for the low-energy electrons measured by GOES (30–50 keV, 50–100 keV, 100–200 keV, 200–350 keV, and 350–600 keV) and extended the existing >800 keV and >2 MeV Geostationary Earth Orbit electron fluxes models to forecast at a 1 h resolution. All of these models were shown to provide accurate forecasts, with prediction efficiencies ranging between 66.9% and 82.3%

Comparative analysis of NOAA REFM and SNB 3 GEO tools for the forecast of the fluxes of high-energy electrons at GEO

Reliable forecasts of relativistic electrons at geostationary orbit (GEO) are important for the mitigation of their hazardous effects on spacecraft at GEO. For a number of years the Space Weather Prediction Center at NOAA has provided advanced online forecasts of the fluence of electrons with energy >2 MeV at GEO using the Relativistic Electron Forecast Model (REFM). The REFM forecasts are based on real-time solar wind speed observations at L1. The high reliability of this forecasting tool serves as a benchmark for the assessment of other forecasting tools. Since 2012 the Sheffield SNB3GEO model has been operating online, providing a 24 h ahead forecast of the same fluxes. In addition to solar wind speed, the SNB3GEO forecasts use solar wind density and interplanetary magnetic field Bz observations at L1.The period of joint operation of both of these forecasts has been used to compare their accuracy. Daily averaged measurements of electron fluxes by GOES 13 have been used to estimate the prediction efficiency of both forecasting tools. To assess the reliability of both models to forecast infrequent events of very high fluxes, the Heidke skill score was employed. The results obtained indicate that SNB3GEO provides a more accurate 1 day ahead forecast when compared to REFM. It is shown that the correction methodology utilized by REFM potentially can improve the SNB3GEO forecast

Concurrent Acquisition of a Single Nucleotide Polymorphism in Diverse Influenza H5N1 Clade 2.2 Sub-clades

Highly pathogenic Influenza A H5N1 was first identified in Guangdong Province in 1996, followed by human cases in Hong Kong in 1997 1,2. The number of confirmed human cases now exceeds 300 and the associated Case Fatality Rate exceeds 60% 3. The genetic diversity of the serotype continues to increase. Four distinct clades or sub-clades have been linked to human cases 4-7. The gradual genetic changes identified in the sub-clades have been attributed to copy errors by viral encoded polymerases that lack an editing function, thereby resulting in antigenic drift 8. We report here the concurrent acquisition of the same polymorphism by multiple, genetically distinct, clade 2.2 sub-clades in Egypt, Russia, Kuwait, and Ghana. These changes are not easily explained by the current theory of “random mutation” through copy error, and are more easily explained by recombination with a common source. The recombination role is further supported by the high fidelity replication in swine influenza 9 and aggregation of single nucleotide polymorphisms in H5N1 clade 2.2 hemagglutinin 10

Predicting the Starquakes in PSR J0537-6910

We report on more than 7 years of monitoring of PSR J0537-6910, the 16 ms pulsar in the Large Magellanic Cloud, using data acquired with the RXTE. During this campaign the pulsar experienced 23 sudden increases in frequency (``glitches'') amounting to a total gain of over six ppm of rotation frequency superposed on its gradual spindown of d(nu)/d(t) = -2e-10 Hz/s. The time interval from one glitch to the next obeys a strong linear correlation to the amplitude of the first glitch, with a mean slope of about 400 days ppm (6.5 days per uHz), such that these intervals can be predicted to within a few days, an accuracy which has never before been seen in any other pulsar. There appears to be an upper limit of ~40 uHz for the size of glitches in_all_ pulsars, with the 1999 April glitch of J0537 as the largest so far. The change in the spindown of J0537 across the glitches, Delta(d(nu)/d(t)), appears to have the same hard lower limit of -1.5e-13 Hz/s, as, again, that observed in all other pulsars. The spindown continues to increase in the long term, d(d(nu)/d(t))/d(t) = -1e-21 Hz/s/s, and thus the timing age of J0537 (-0.5 nu d(nu)/d(t)) continues to decrease at a rate of nearly one year every year, consistent with movement of its magnetic moment away from its rotational axis by one radian every 10,000 years, or about one meter per year. J0537 was likely to have been born as a nearly-aligned rotator spinning at 75-80 Hz, with a |d(nu)/d(t)| considerably smaller than its current value of 2e-10 Hz/s. The pulse profile of J0537 consists of a single pulse which is found to be flat at its peak for at least 0.02 cycles.Comment: 54 pages, 12 figures. Accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal. Cleaner figure 2. V4 -- in line with version accepted by Ap

Probing the Neutron Star Interior with Glitches

With the aim of constraining the structural properties of neutron stars and the equation of state of dense matter, we study sudden spin-ups, glitches, occurring in the Vela pulsar and in six other pulsars. We present evidence that glitches represent a self-regulating instability for which the star prepares over a waiting time. The angular momentum requirements of glitches in Vela indicate that at least 1.4% of the star's moment of inertia drives these events. If glitches originate in the liquid of the inner crust, Vela's `radiation radius' $R_\infty$ must exceed ~12 km for a mass of 1.4 solar masses. The isolated neutron star RX J18563-3754 is a promising candidate for a definitive radius measurement, and offers to further our understanding of dense matter and the origin of glitches.Comment: Invited talk at the Pacific Rim Conference on Stellar Astrophysics, Hong Kong, Aug. 1999. 9 pages, 5 figure

Machine learning enhanced NARMAX model for Dst index forecasting

As many systems and equipment are sensitive to magnetic disturbances, it is important to understand the magnetosphere system, to reduce the negative effect caused by severe space weather situations. The disturbance storm time (Dst) index is used to measure the magnetic disturbances and it is correlated with solar wind variables. This study presents a new machine learning enhanced NARMAX (MLE- NARMAX) model for 3 hours ahead forecasting of Dst index. An important advantage of the MLE-NARMAX model is that it provides a transparent and explainable model structure. The model performance is tested over three typical strong storm periods, where the prediction skills are 0.9734, 0.9598 and 0.9206 in terms of correlation, and 0.9474, 0.9173, and 0.8333 in terms prediction efficiency (PE). Compared to the conventional NARX model, the MLE-NARMAX produces better model predictions

What do people do with porn? qualitative research into the consumption, use and experience of pornography and other sexually explicit media

This article reviews qualitative research into the consumption of pornography and other sexually explicit media emerging from a range of subject areas. Taking a critique of quantitative methods and a focus on measuring sexual effects and attitudes as a starting point, it considers the proposition that qualitative work is more suited to an examination of the complex social, cultural and political constructions of sexuality. Examining studies into the way men, women and young people see, experience, and use explicit media texts, the article identifies the key findings that have emerged. Qualitative work shows that sexuality explicit media texts are experienced and understood in a variety of ways and evoke strong and often contradictory reactions, not all of which are represented in public debates about pornography. These texts function in a range of different ways, depending on context; as a source of knowledge, a resource for intimate practices, a site for identity construction, and an occasion for performing gender and sexuality. The article reviews these studies and their findings, identifying what they suggest about directions for future research, both in terms of developing methodology and refining approaches to sexuality and media consumption.</p