Forecasting with real-time macroeconomic data: the ragged-edge problem and revisions

Real-time macroeconomic data are typically incomplete for today and the immediate past (?ragged edge?) and subject to revision. To enable more timely forecasts the recent missing data have to be dealt with. In the context of the U.S. leading index we assess four alternatives,paying explicit attention to publication lags and data revisions.

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Scenario drivers (1970-2050): Climate and hydrological alterations

This study was carried out to support and enhance a series of global studies assessing contemporary and future changes in nutrient export from watersheds (Global Nutrient Export from Watersheds (NEWS)). Because hydrography is one of the most important drivers in nutrient transport, it was essential to establish how climatic changes and direct human activities (primarily irrigation and reservoir operations) affect the hydrological cycle. Contemporary and future hydrography was established by applying a modified version of a global water balance and transport model (WBMplus) driven by present and future climate forcing, as described in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenarios (1970-2050). WBMplus represents a major upgrade to previous WBM implementations by incorporating irrigational water uptake and reservoir operations in a single modeling framework. Contemporary simulations were carried out by using both observed climate forcings from the Climate Research Unit of East Anglia (CRU) data sets and from Global Circulation Model (GCM) simulations that are comparable to the future simulations from the same GCM forcings. Future trends in three key human activities (land use, irrigation, and reservoirs operation for hydropower) were taken from the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE). The reservoir operation required establishing a realistic distribution of future reservoirs since the IMAGE model provided only the hydropower potentials for the different future scenarios

ISO spectroscopy of circumstellar dust in 14 Herbig Ae/Be systems: towards an understanding of dust processing

We present Infrared Space Observatory (ISO) spectra of fourteen isolated Herbig Ae/Be (HAEBE) stars, to study the characteristics of their circumstellar dust. These spectra show large star-to-star differences, in the emission features of both carbon-rich and oxygen-rich dust grains. The IR spectra were combined with photometric data ranging from the UV through the optical into the sub-mm region. We defined two key groups, based upon the spectral shape of the infrared region. The derived results can be summarized as follows: (1) the continuum of the IR to sub-mm region of all stars can be reconstructed by the sum of a power-law and a cool component, which can be represented by a black body. Possible locations for these components are an optically thick, geometrically thin disc (power-law component) and an optically thin flared region (black body); (2) all stars have a substantial amount of cold dust around them, independent of the amount of mid-IR excess they show; (3) also the near-IR excess is unrelated to the mid-IR excess, indicating different composition/location of the emitting material; (4) remarkably, some sources lack the silicate bands; (5) apart from amorphous silicates, we find evidence for crystalline silicates in several stars, some of which are new detections; (6) PAH bands are present in at least 50% of our sample, and their appearance is slightly different from PAHs in the ISM; (7) PAH bands are, with one exception, not present in sources which only show a power-law continuum in the IR; their presence is unrelated to the presence of the silicate bands; (8) the dust in HAEBE stars shows strong evidence for coagulation; this dust processing is unrelated to any of the central star properties (such as age, spectral type and activity).Comment: 15 pages, accepted by A&

ISO spectroscopy of circumstellar dust in the Herbig Ae systems AB Aur and HD 163296

Using both the Short- and Long-wavelength Spectrometers on board the Infrared Space Observatory (ISO), we have obtained infrared spectra of the Herbig Ae systems AB Aur and HD 163296. In addition, we obtained ground-based N band images of HD 163296. Our results can be summarized as follows: (1) The main dust components in AB Aur are amorphous silicates, iron oxide and PAHs; (2) The circumstellar dust in HD 163296 consists of amorphous silicates, iron oxide, water ice and a small fraction of crystalline silicates; (3) The infrared fluxes of HD 163296 are dominated by solid state features; (4) The colour temperature of the underlying continuum is much cooler in HD 163296 than in AB Aur, pointing to the existence of a population of very large (mm sized) dust grains in HD 163296; (5) The composition and degree of crystallization of circumstellar dust are poorly correlated with the age of the central star. The processes of crystallization and grain growth are also not necessarily coupled. This means that either the evolution of circumstellar dust in protoplanetary disks happens very rapidly (within a few Myr), or that this evolution is governed by factors other than stellar mass and age.Comment: 6 pages, 2 figures, accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysic

Kleurrijk en veelzijdig

Katalyse en oppervlaktechemi

On the interplay between flaring and shadowing in disks around Herbig Ae/Be stars

Based on the SED, Herbig stars have been categorized into two observational groups, reflecting their overall disk structure: group I members have disks with a higher degree of flaring than their group II counterparts. We investigate the 5-35 um Spitzer IRS spectra of a sample of 13 group I sources and 20 group II sources. We focus on the continuum emission to study the underlying disk geometry. We have determined the [30/13.5] and [13.5/7] continuum flux ratios. The 7-um flux excess with respect to the stellar photosphere is measured, as a marker for the strength of the near-IR emission produced by the inner disk. We have compared our data to self-consistent passive-disk model spectra, for which the same quantities were derived. We confirm the literature result that the difference in continuum emission between group I and II sources can largely be explained by a different amount of small dust grains. However, we report a strong correlation between the [30/13.5] and [13.5/7] flux ratios for Meeus group II sources. Moreover, the [30/13.5] flux ratio decreases with increasing 7-um excess for all targets in the sample. To explain these correlations with the models, we need to introduce an artificial scaling factor for the inner disk height. In roughly 50% of the Herbig Ae/Be stars in our sample, the inner disk must be inflated by a factor 2 to 3 beyond what hydrostatic calculations predict. The total disk mass in small dust grains determines the degree of flaring. We conclude, however, that for any given disk mass in small dust grains, the shadowing of the outer (tens of AU) disk is determined by the scale height of the inner disk (1 AU). The inner disk partially obscures the outer disk, reducing the disk surface temperature. Here, for the first time, we prove these effects observationally.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures, accepted by A&