Commodity Prices as a Leading Indicator of Inflation

This paper studies the value of broad commodity price indexes as predictors of consumer price inflation in the G-7 industrial countries. After an introduction, the paper discusses the theoretical relationship between commodity and consumer prices and the conditions under which, in general, one would expect commodity prices to be a leading indicator of inflation. It then presents tests of the relationships between conventional broad indexes of commodity prices and consumer prices, and uses the data on individual commodities to generate the optimum weights in a commodity price index for forecasting G-7 inflation. We find that commodity and consumer prices are not co-integrated; the hypothesis that there is a reliable long-run relationship between the level of commodity prices and the level of consumer prices may be rejected. There is a tendency for changes in commodity prices to lead those in consumer prices, at least when the data are denominated in a broad index of major-country currencies. However, although the inclusion of commodity prices significantly improves the in-sample fit of regressions of an aggregate (multi-country) consumer price index, the results may not be sufficiently stable to improve post-sample forecasts. Estimated alternative commodity price indexes, in which the weights are chosen so as to minimize the residual variance in aggregate inflation regressions, track the behavior of the aggregate CPI reasonably well in-sample. However, the estimated indexes work only moderately well in post-sample predictions, and they do not appear to offer significant advantages over the conventional export weighted index. Perhaps the most important result is that turning points in commodity-price inflation frequently precede turning points in consumer-price inflation for the large industrial countries as a group.

Commodity Prices and Inflation: Evidence From Seven Large Industrial Countries

This paper examines the relationships between movements in primary commodity prices and changes in inflation in the large industrial countries. It begins by developing a two-country model in order to examine the theoretical effects of monetary, fiscal, and supply-side disturbances on commodity and manufactures prices and on exchange rates. It is shown that if monetary shocks dominate, then commodity prices should lead general price movements, and the level of commodity prices should be correlated with the general inflation rate. Non-monetary shocks generally weaken these relationships, but such disturbances may cancel out for broad indexes covering a wide range of commodities. Country-specific commodity price indexes are developed for the major industrial countries. The weights assigned to different commodities vary substantially across countries. Nonetheless, when the indexes are expressed in a common currency, they tend to be highly correlated over time, except when sharp movements occur in certain commodity prices. The major source of contrast across countries in the behavior of the indexes derives from exchange rate movements. Several empirical tests broadly support the conclusions of the theoretical model, with relatively few differences across countries. Three main tendencies may be cited. First, low inflation in industrial countries has tended to be associated with low levels of commodity prices, and conversely; commodity-price levels are cointegrated with consumer-price inflation rates. Second, there has been some tendency for movements in commodity prices to precede changes in general inflation rates by a few months, although it is not clear whether this tendency is strong enough to be a reliable aid in forecasting the rate of inflation. Third, there s a strong and fairly reliable tendency for turning points in general inflation rates. Commodity prices thus appear to contribute to predictions of turning points in inflation, predictions of inflation rates but more strongly to predictions of turning points in inflation.

Patch-Burn Grazing Impacts Forage Resources in Subtropical Humid Grazing Lands

Subtropical humid grazing lands represent a large global land use and are important for livestock production, as well as supplying multiple ecosystem services. Patch-burn grazing (PBG) management is applied in temperate grazing lands to enhance environmental and economic sustainability; however, this management system has not been widely tested in subtropical humid grazing lands. The objective of this study was to determine how PBG affected forage resources, in comparison with the business-as-usual full-burn (FB) management in both intensively managed pastures (IMP) and seminative (SN) pastures in subtropical humid grazinglands. We hypothesized that PBG management would create patch contrasts in forage quantity and nutritive value in both IMP and SN pastures, with a greater effect in SN pastures. A randomized block design experiment was established in 2017 with 16 pastures (16 ha each), 8 each in IMP and SN at Archbold Biological Station\u27s Buck Island Ranch in Florida. PBG management employed on IMP and SN resulted in creation of patch contrast in forage nutritive value and biomass metrics, and recent fire increased forage nutritive value. Residual standing biomass was significantly lower in burned patches of each year, creating heterogeneity within both pasture types under PBG. PBG increased digestible forage production in SN but not IMP pastures. These results suggest that PBG may be a useful management tool for enhancing forage nutritive value and creating patch contrast in both SN and IMP, but PBG does not necessarily increase production relative to FB management. The annual increase in tissue quality and digestible forage production in a PBG system as opposed to once every 3 yr in an FB system is an important consideration for ranchers. Economic impacts of PBG and FB management in the two different pasture types are discussed, and we compare and contrast results from subtropical humid grazing lands with continental temperate grazing lands

Growth and thermal properties of Sr W O 4 single crystal

A strontium tungstate SrWO4 single crystal with dimensions of 25 40 mm2 has been grown by the Czochralski method using an iridium crucible. X-ray powder diffraction results show that as grown the SrWO4 crystal belongs to the tetragonal system in the scheelite structure. The effective segregation coefficients of elemental W and Sr in the crystal growth are measured by x-ray fluorescence, and the respective values are close to 1. The thermal properties of the SrWO4 crystal were systemically studied by measuring the thermal expansion, specific heat, and thermal diffusion coefficient. These results show that the crystal possesses a large anisotropic thermal expansion with thermal-expansion coefficients a=8.61 10−6/K, b=8.74 10−6/K, c=18.78 10−6 /K over the temperature range of 303.15–773.15 K. The measured value of the specific heat is 0.30–0.34 J g−1 K−1 when the temperature is increased from 323.15 to 1073.15 K. The thermal diffusion coefficient was measured over the temperature range of 303.15–543.15 K. The thermal conductivities of the SrWO4 crystal along the 100 and 001 directions are calculated to be 3.1326 W m−1 K−1 and 2.9477 W m−1 K−1, respectively, at 303.15 K. Then the thermal properties of some other Raman crystals were compared with these data, and the thermal focal lengths for these crystals were also estimated

The metabolic environment of the developing embryo: A multidisciplinary approach on oilseed rapeseed

Brassicaceae seeds consist of three genetically distinct structures: the embryo, endosperm and seed coat, all of which are involved in assimilate allocation during seed development. The complexity of their metabolic interrelations remains unresolved to date. In the present study, we apply state-of-the-art imaging and analytical approaches to assess the metabolic environment of the Brassica napus embryo. Nuclear magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) provided volumetric data on the living embryo and endosperm, revealing how the endosperm envelops the embryo, determining endosperm's priority in assimilate uptake from the seed coat during early development. MRI analysis showed higher levels of sugars in the peripheral endosperm facing the seed coat, but a lower sugar content within the central vacuole and the region surrounding the embryo. Feeding intact siliques with 13C-labeled sucrose allowed tracing of the post-phloem route of sucrose transfer within the seed at the heart stage of embryogenesis, by means of mass spectrometry imaging. Quantification of over 70 organic and inorganic compounds in the endosperm revealed shifts in their abundance over different stages of development, while sugars and potassium were the main determinants of osmolality throughout these stages. Our multidisciplinary approach allows access to the hidden aspects of endosperm metabolism, a task which remains unattainable for the small-seeded model plant Arabidopsis thaliana

An archival case study : revisiting the life and political economy of Lauchlin Currie

This paper forms part of a wider project to show the significance of archival material on distinguished economists, in this case Lauchlin Currie (1902-93), who studied and taught at Harvard before entering government service at the US Treasury and Federal Reserve Board as the intellectual leader of Roosevelt's New Deal, 1934-39, as FDR's White House economic adviser in peace and war, 1939-45, and as a post-war development economist. It discusses the uses made of the written and oral material available when the author was writing his intellectual biography of Currie (Duke University Press 1990) while Currie was still alive, and the significance of the material that has come to light after Currie's death

Challenges and Opportunities to Increase Carbon Sequestration in Subtropical Grazing Lands

Livestock production has a significant environmental footprint. However, adoption of regenerative grazing land management practices can serve as a means of producing food with lower, or even net positive environmental impacts. Globally, much of the grazing land ecosystems are degraded due to improper management. This is particularly true in the southeastern US, where extensive areas of planted pastures are degraded due to inadequate nutrient and soil management. In this presentation, we will discuss the opportunities and challenges associated with increasing soil and ecosystem C sequestration in subtropical grazing lands through regenerative management practices. Introductio

Thermal properties of cubic KTa 1 x Nb x O 3 crystals

Cubic potassium tantalite niobate KTa1−xNbxO3 KTN crystals of large size, good quality, and varying Nb concentration have been grown by the Czochralski method and their thermal properties have been systematically studied. The melting point, molar enthalpy of fusion, and molar entropy of fusion of the crystals were determined to be: 1536.9 K, 12 068.521 J mol−1, and 7.85 J K−1 mol−1 for KTa0.67Nb0.33O3; and 1520.61 K, 15 352.511 J mol−1, and 10.098 J K−1 mol−1 for KTa0.67Nb0.33O3, respectively. Based on the data, the Jackson factor was calculated to be 0.994f and 1.214f for KTa0.67Nb0.33O3 and KTa0.63Nb0.37O3, respectively. The thermal expansion coefficients over the temperature range of 298.15−773.15 K are: =4.0268 10−6 /K, 6.4428 10−6 /K, 6.5853 10−6 /K for KTaO3, KTa0.67Nb0.33O3, and KTa0.63Nb0.37O3, respectively. The density follows an almost linear decrease when the temperature increases=from 298.15 to 773.15 K. The measured specific heats at 303.15 K are: 0.375 J g−1 K−1 for KTaO3; 0.421 J g−1 K−1 for KTa0.67Nb0.33O3, and 0.430 J g−1 K−1 for KTa0.63Nb0.37O3 The thermal diffusion coefficients of the crystals were measured over the temperature range from 303.15−563.15 K. The calculated thermal conductivity values of KTaO3, KTa0.67Nb0.33O3, and KTa0.63Nb0.37O3 at 303.15 K are 8.551, 5.592, and 4.489 W m−1 K−1, respectively. The variation of these thermal properties versus Nb concentration is qualitatively analyzed. These results show that crystalline KTN is a promising material for optical applications