Social Capital and Economic Well-Being in Germany's Regions: An Exploratory Spatial Analysis

This article explores social capital in Germany in line with Putnam’s claim that social capital benefits regional economic well-being. In particular, this macro-level study examines whether the number of civic associations, as a measure of a vibrant civil society, is related to higher GDP. Since this study uses spatial data on civic associations and official statistics concerning the German NUTS-3 regions, different spatial matrices model interdependencies among the dependent units of analysis. Exploratory spatial data analysis illustrates spatial patterns between districts as well as each variable’s radius of influence. Cross-sectional spatial models help examine social capital’s effect on regional economic well-being. Results of these analyses are two-fold: first, the geographical scope of social capital is locally concentrated, whereas the sphere of economic well-being encloses a wider area. Second, social capital correlates positively with economic well-being in Germany’s many regions

Are Joiners Trusters? A Panel Analysis of Participation and Generalized Trust

Freiwilliges Engagement und soziales Vertrauen werden als zwei Dimensionen des Konzepts “Sozialkapital” verstanden. Inwiefern diese Dimensionen miteinander in Beziehung stehen und ob freiwilliges Engagement ursächlich für soziales Vertrauen ist, wird in der Forschung diskutiert. Die Ergebnisse sind unterschiedlich und oft sogar widersprüchlich, was teilweise auf verschiedenen Messindikatoren und teilweise auf unzulänglicher statistischer Analyse beruht. Dieser Artikel untersucht daher die kausale Beziehung zwischen Partizipation in Vereinen und generalisiertem Vertrauen. Die Kausalanalyse basiert auf den Langzeitdaten des Schweizer Haushalts-Panel der Jahre 2002 bis 2012. Mit Hilfe von Dynamischen Panelmodellen werden die Reziprozität von Partizipation und Vertrauen als auch das Vertrauensniveau der Vorjahre in der statistischen Analyse berücksichtigt. Die Resultate zeigen einen kausalen Effekt, insofern dass die Teilnahme in Vereinen das generalisierte Vertrauen erhöht. Teilnehmer haben zwar ein höheres Vertrauensniveau a priori, aber ihr Vertrauen nimmt dennoch zu, wenn sie sich engagieren.As two sides of the same coin – namely that of social capital – civic engagement and social trust have been conceived of as interrelated concepts. Existing studies examine whether civic participation is causally linked to generalized trust. However, the empirical evidence remains ambiguous: partly due to multidimensional measurement and partly in response to inadequate statistical analyses. The contribution of this paper, which uses the Swiss Household Panel data set between 2002 and 2012, is to analyze the causal relationship between participation in associations and generalized trust. Dynamic Panel Models account for the reciprocity of trust and participation with lagged dependent and lagged endogenous independent variables. The positive results support a causal effect of civic participation on generalized trust and show that joiners are trusters a priori, but also that they become trusters as they join

Communicating adaptation with emotions : the role of intense experiences for concern about extreme weather

Adaptation to extreme weather is often considered as having a low urgency and being a low priority governance option, even though the intensity of extreme weather events is expected to increase as a result of climate change. An important issue is how to raise an adequate level of concern among individuals, policy makers, and broader decision makers in companies and organizations so that adaptation to extreme events becomes mainstream practice. We conducted 40 indepth interviews with individuals from different sectors in The Netherlands to identify the different types of experiences with extreme events, as well as the relationship between such experiences and the level of concern about extreme weather. Our results indicate that individuals who have experienced an intense, life-threatening event have a significantly higher level of concern than those without such an experience. Professional experience and secondhand experience through participating in information events do not significantly affect the level of concern about extreme events. This suggests limited intervention possibilities for communication of adaptation, as well as for raising support for adaptation measures. Framing adaptation measures in relation to personal circumstances and emotions during extreme events could help raise concern about extreme weather events, as well as societal support for adaptation measures

Dependence of floodrisk perceptions on socio-economic and objective risk factors

This study examines flood risk perceptions of individuals in the Netherlands using a survey of approximately 1000 homeowners. Perceptions of a range of aspects of flood risk are elicited. Various statistical models are used to estimate the influence of socioeconomic and geographical characteristics, personal experience with flooding, knowledge of flood threats, and individual risk attitudes on shaping risk belief. The study shows that in general, perceptions of flood risk are low. An analysis of the factors determining risk perceptions provides four main insights relevant for policy makers and insurers. First, differences in expected risk are consistently related to actual risk levels, since individuals in the vicinity of a main river and low-lying areas generally have elevated risk perceptions. Second, individuals in areas unprotected by dikes tend to underestimate their risk of flooding. Third, individuals with little knowledge of the causes of flood events have lower perceptions of flood risk. Fourth, there is some evidence that older and more highly educated individuals have a lower flood risk perception. The findings indicate that increasing knowledge of citizens about the causes of flooding may increase flood risk awareness. It is especially important to target individuals who live in areas unprotected by dike infrastructure, since they tend to be unaware of or ignore the high risk exposure faced. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union

Dealing with Uncertainty in Flood Management Through Diversification

This paper shows, through a numerical example, how to develop portfolios of flood management activities that generate the highest return under an acceptable risk for an area in the central part of the Netherlands. The paper shows a method based on Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) that contributes to developing flood management strategies. MPT aims at finding sets of investments that diversify risks thereby reducing the overall risk of the total portfolio of investments. This paper shows that through systematically combining four different flood protection measures in portfolios containing three or four measures; risk is reduced compared with portfolios that only contain one or two measures. Adding partly uncorrelated measures to the portfolio diversifies risk. We demonstrate how MPT encourages a systematic discussion of the relationship between the return and risk of individual flood mitigation activities and the return and risk of complete portfolios. It is also shown how important it is to understand the correlation of the returns of various flood management activities. The MPT approach, therefore, fits well with the notion of adaptive water management, which perceives the future as inherently uncertain. Through applying MPT on flood protection strategies current vulnerability will be reduced by diversifying risk

Hurricane Irene: a Wake Up Call for New York City?

The weakening of Irene from a Category 3 hurricane to a tropical storm resulted in less damage in New York City (NYC) than initially was anticipated. It is widely recognized that the storm surge and associated flooding could have been much more severe. In a recent study, we showed that a direct hit to the city from a hurricane may expose an enormous number of people to flooding. A major hurricane has the potential to cause large-scale damage in NYC. The city's resilience to flooding can be increased by improving and integrating flood insurance, flood zoning, and building code policies

Uncovering the veil of night light changes in times of catastrophe

Natural disasters have large social and economic consequences. However, adequate economic and social data to study subnational economic effects of these negative shocks are typically difficult to obtain especially in low-income countries. For this reason, the use of night light data is becoming increasingly popular in studies which aim to estimate the impacts of natural disasters on local economic activity. However, it is often unclear what observed changes in night lights represent exactly. In this paper, we examine how changes in night light emissions following a severe hurricane relate with local population, employment, and income statistics. We do so for the case of Hurricane Katrina, which struck the coastline of Louisiana and Mississippi in August 2005. Hurricane Katrina is an excellent case for this purpose as it is one of the biggest hurricanes in recent history in terms of human and economic impacts, it made landfall in a country with high-quality sub-national socioeconomic data collection, and it is covered extensively in the academic literature. We find that overall night light changes reflect the general pattern of direct impacts of Katrina as well as indirect impacts and subsequent population and economic recovery. Our results suggest that change in light intensity is mostly reflective of changes in resident population and the total number of employed people within the affected area and less so but positively related to aggregate income and real GDP.</p

More than fear induction: Toward an understanding of people's motivation to be well-prepared for emergencies in flood prone areas

This article examines the extent and manner to which evaluations of flood-related precautions are affected by an individual's motivation and perception of context. It argues that the relationship between risk perception and flood risk preparedness can be fruitfully specified in terms of vulnerability and efficacy if these concepts are put into the perspective of prevention-focused motivation. This relationship was empirically examined in a risk communication experiment in a delta area of the Netherlands (n = 1,887). Prevention-focused motivation was induced by contextualized risk information. The results showed that prevention-focused individuals were more sensitive to the relevance of potential precautions for satisfying their needs in the context they found themselves in. The needs included, but were not limited to, fear reduction. Due to the heterogeneity of the residents, the evaluations reflected individual differences in the intensity and the selectivity of precautionary processes. Four types of persons could be distinguished according to their evaluation of precautionary measures: a high-scoring minority, two more selective types, and a low-scoring minority. For policymakers and risk communicators it is vital to consider the nature of prevention motivation and the context in which it is likely to be high