PRIVATE SAVINGS IN TRANSITION ECONOMIES: ARE THERE TERMS OF TRADE SHOCKS?

The paper examines the impact of terms of trade shocks on private savings in the transition economies after accounting for the effect of other determinants. Economic agents in the transition economies are subject to tight credit constraints which are more pronounced during bad state of nature. Thus, adverse shocks to commodity prices in the world market can force them to reduce savings by a larger amount than they would otherwise have. Empirical analysis using a dynamic panel model and data from twenty one transition economies confirm that most of the determinants of savings identified in the literature also apply to the transition economies. Favorable movements in both the permanent and transitory components of the terms of trade have a significant positive impact on private savings with transitory movements having a larger impact than the permanent component. This reflects the lack of access to foreign borrowing that many of the transition economies have faced during the last decade. Although the impact of terms of trade shocks are found to be asymmetric, the magnitude of the impact appears to be small. The results are robust for alternative estimators, determinants, and country groupings.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39958/3/wp572.pd

Services as a New Engine of Growth for ASEAN, the People’s Republic of China, and India

An increasing services orientation is likely to be a key feature of the economies of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the People's Republic of China, and India (collectively referred to as "ACI") over the medium-term. This paper aims to present a compendium of relevant data on the state of the services sector in the ACI countries, focusing on its contribution to overall economic activity, employment, and growth. To do this, it relies heavily on standard international sources, as well as national statistics in some cases. It also examines to the extent possible - given data restrictions - the services policy environment in the ACI countries, focusing on its implications for regional and international integration of services markets

Rebalancing the US Economy in a Postcrisis World

The objective of this paper is to explore how the external balance of the United States (US) might evolve in future years as the economy emerges from the recession. We examine the issue from the domestic perspective of the saving and investment balance and from the external side in terms of the basic determinants of exports and imports and the role of the real exchange rate. Using these two respective perspectives, we highlight (1) causes and consequences of low private and public saving in the US, and (2) sensitivity of trade to variations in the real exchange rate. We highlight the need for sustained depreciation of the dollar to improve the competitiveness of US exports and argue that the current exchange rate is consistent with a significant reduction in the size of the trade deficit. However, the favorable external outlook is very inconsistent with a projected domestic situation of low rates of private saving and a very large public sector budget deficit matched by a cyclically depressed rate of investment. Changes in US corporate tax structure, reconsideration of capital controls, and perhaps some further decline in the level of real exchange rates could help soften the impact of a potentially very hard postrecession landing for the United States

Performance of Indian Manufacturing in the Post Reform Period

Many emerging countries in recent decades have relied on a development strategy that focused primarily on promoting the manufacturing sector and the exports of manufactured goods. However, an acceleration of growth of output and employment in manufacturing has eluded India. This is despite the fact that the central focus of the reforms in the 1980s and 1990s was to unshackle the manufacturing sector. Instead it is the services sector which has grown rapidly, contributing about two-third of GDP growth in recent years. This paper discusses the reasons behind the modest performance of the manufacturing sector in India post reforms. It argues that there are many factors that have inhibited the growth of industrial sector in India. One major factor is the rigid and strict labor laws which have affected the industrial performance in a number of ways, by keeping the size of the establishments small, by not encouraging the production of labor intensive goods, by pushing activities to the unorganized sector, and by keeping the Indian industry uncompetitive. Besides the labor laws other factors that are responsible for the modest performance of the manufacturing sector include difficulty in the acquisition of land for industrial use, inadequate financing and infrastructure, and cumbersome business climate. The paper presents arguments and evidence which shows the importance of these factors

Reducing Adverse Self-Medication Behaviors in Older Adults with Hypertension: Results of an e-health Clinical Efficacy Trial

A randomized controlled efficacy trial targeting older adults with hypertension (age 60 and over) provided an e-health, tailored intervention with the “next generation” of the Personal Education Program (PEP-NG). Eleven primary care practices with advanced practice registered nurse (APRN) providers participated. Participants (N = 160) were randomly assigned by the PEP-NG (accessed via a wireless touchscreen tablet computer) to either control (entailing data collection and four routine APRN visits) or tailored intervention (involving PEP-NG intervention and four focused APRN visits) group. Compared to patients in the control group, patients receiving the PEP-NG e-health intervention achieved significant increases in both self-medication knowledge and self-efficacy measures, with large effect sizes. Among patients not at BP targets upon entry to the study, therapy intensification in controls (increased antihypertensive dose and/or an additional antihypertensive) was significant (p = .001) with an odds ratio of 21.27 in the control compared to the intervention group. Among patients not at BP targets on visit 1, there was a significant declining linear trend in proportion of the intervention group taking NSAIDs 21–31 days/month (p = 0.008). Satisfaction with the PEP-NG and the APRN provider relationship was high in both groups. These results suggest that the PEP-NG e-health intervention in primary care practices is effective in increasing knowledge and self-efficacy, as well as improving behavior regarding adverse self-medication practices among older adults with hypertension

Assessing a risk tailored intervention to prevent disabling low back pain - protocol of a cluster randomized controlled trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Although most patients with low back pain (LBP) recover within a few weeks a significant proportion has recurrent episodes or will develop chronic low back pain. Several mainly psychosocial risk factors for developing chronic LBP have been identified. However, effects of preventive interventions aiming at behavioural risk factors and unfavourable cognitions have yielded inconsistent results. Risk tailored interventions may provide a cost efficient and effective means to take systematic account of the individual risk factors but evidence is lacking.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>This study will be a cluster-randomised controlled trial comparing screening and a subsequent risk tailored intervention for patients with low back pain to prevent chronic low back pain compared to treatment as usual in primary care. A total of 600 patients from 20 practices in each study arm will be recruited in Berlin and Goettingen. The intervention comprises the following elements: Patients will be assigned to one of four risk groups based on a screening questionnaire. Subsequently they receive an educational intervention including information and counselling tailored to the risk group. A telephone/email consulting service for back pain related problems are offered independent of risk group assignment. The primary outcomes will be functional capacity and sick leave.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>This trial will evaluate the effectiveness of screening for risk factors for chronic low back pain followed by a risk tailored intervention to prevent chronic low back pain. This trial will contribute new evidence regarding the flexible use of individual physical and psychosocial risk factors in general practice.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>ISRCTN 68205910</p

How to screen for non-adherence to antihypertensive therapy

The quality of assessment of non-adherence to treatment in hypertensive is poor. Within this review, we discuss the different methods used to assess adherence to blood-pressure-lowering medications in hypertension patients. Subjective reports such as physicians’ perceptions are inaccurate, and questionnaires completed by patients tend to overreport adherence and show a low diagnostic specificity. Indirect objective methods such as pharmacy database records can be useful, but they are limited by the robustness of the recorded data. Electronic medication monitoring devices are accurate but usually track adherence to only a single medication and can be expensive. Overall, the fundamental issue with indirect objective measures is that they do not fully confirm ingestion of antihypertensive medications. Detection of antihypertensive medications in body fluids using liquid chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry is currently, in our view, the most robust and clinically useful method to assess non-adherence to blood-pressure-lowering treatment. It is particularly helpful in patients presenting with resistant, refractory or uncontrolled hypertension despite the optimal therapy. We recommend using this diagnostic strategy to detect non-adherence alongside a no-blame approach tailoring support to address the perceptions (e.g. beliefs about the illness and treatment) and practicalities (e.g. capability and resources) influencing motivation and ability to adhere

2021 EULAR recommendations for the implementation of self-management strategies in patients with inflammatory arthritis

Background An important but often insufficient aspect of care in people with inflammatory arthritis (IA) is empowering patients to acquire a good understanding of their disease and building their ability to deal effectively with the practical, physical and psychological impacts of it. Self-management skills can be helpful in this regard. Objectives To develop recommendations for the implementation of self-management strategies in IA. Methods A multidisciplinary taskforce of 18 members from 11 European countries was convened. A systematic review and other supportive information (survey of healthcare professionals (HCPs) and patient organisations) were used to formulate the recommendations. Results Three overarching principles and nine recommendations were formulated. These focused on empowering patients to become active partners of the team and to take a more proactive role. The importance of patient education and key self-management interventions such as problem solving, goal setting and cognitive behavioural therapy were highlighted. Role of patient organisations and HCPs in promoting and signposting patients to available resources has been highlighted through the promotion of physical activity, lifestyle advice, support with mental health aspects and ability to remain at work. Digital healthcare is essential in supporting and optimising self-management and the HCPs need to be aware of available resources to signpost patients. Conclusion These recommendations support the inclusion of self-management advice and resources in the routine management of people with IA and aim to empower and support patients and encourage a more holistic, patient-centred approach to care which could result in improved patient experience of care and outcomes

Motives and comprehension in a public goods game with induced emotions

This study analyses the sensitivity of public goods contributions through the lens of psychological motives. We report the results of a public goods experiment in which subjects were induced with the motives of care and anger through autobiographical recall. Subjects' preferences, beliefs, and perceptions under each motive are compared with those of subjects experiencing a neutral autobiographical recall control condition. We find, but only for those subjects with the highest comprehension of the game, that care elicits significantly higher contributions than anger, with the control treatment in between. This positive influence of the care motive on unconditional giving is accounted for partly by preferences for giving and partly by the beliefs concerning greater contributions by others. Anger also affects attention to own and other's payoffs (using mouse tracking) and perceptions of the game's incentive structure (cooperative or competitive)