Anthropic reasoning in multiverse cosmology and string theory

Anthropic arguments in multiverse cosmology and string theory rely on the weak anthropic principle (WAP). We show that the principle, though ultimately a tautology, is nevertheless ambiguous. It can be reformulated in one of two unambiguous ways, which we refer to as WAP_1 and WAP_2. We show that WAP_2, the version most commonly used in anthropic reasoning, makes no physical predictions unless supplemented by a further assumption of "typicality", and we argue that this assumption is both misguided and unjustified. WAP_1, however, requires no such supplementation; it directly implies that any theory that assigns a non-zero probability to our universe predicts that we will observe our universe with probability one. We argue, therefore, that WAP_1 is preferable, and note that it has the benefit of avoiding the inductive overreach characteristic of much anthropic reasoning.Comment: 7 pages. Expanded discussion of selection effects and some minor clarifications, as publishe

Prediction and explanation in the multiverse

Probabilities in the multiverse can be calculated by assuming that we are typical representatives in a given reference class. But is this class well defined? What should be included in the ensemble in which we are supposed to be typical? There is a widespread belief that this question is inherently vague, and that there are various possible choices for the types of reference objects which should be counted in. Here we argue that the ``ideal'' reference class (for the purpose of making predictions) can be defined unambiguously in a rather precise way, as the set of all observers with identical information content. When the observers in a given class perform an experiment, the class branches into subclasses who learn different information from the outcome of that experiment. The probabilities for the different outcomes are defined as the relative numbers of observers in each subclass. For practical purposes, wider reference classes can be used, where we trace over all information which is uncorrelated to the outcome of the experiment, or whose correlation with it is beyond our current understanding. We argue that, once we have gathered all practically available evidence, the optimal strategy for making predictions is to consider ourselves typical in any reference class we belong to, unless we have evidence to the contrary. In the latter case, the class must be correspondingly narrowed.Comment: Minor clarifications adde

An Infrared Divergence Problem in the cosmological measure theory and the anthropic reasoning

An anthropic principle has made it possible to answer the difficult question of why the observable value of cosmological constant ($\Lambda\sim 10^{-47}$ GeV${}^4$) is so disconcertingly tiny compared to predicted value of vacuum energy density $\rho_{SUSY}\sim 10^{12}$ GeV${}^4$. Unfortunately, there is a darker side to this argument, as it consequently leads to another absurd prediction: that the probability to observe the value $\Lambda=0$ for randomly selected observer exactly equals to 1. We'll call this controversy an infrared divergence problem. It is shown that the IRD prediction can be avoided with the help of a Linde-Vanchurin {\em singular runaway measure} coupled with the calculation of relative Bayesian probabilities by the means of the {\em doomsday argument}. Moreover, it is shown that while the IRD problem occurs for the {\em prediction stage} of value of $\Lambda$, it disappears at the {\em explanatory stage} when $\Lambda$ has already been measured by the observer.Comment: 9 pages, RevTe

Self-Modification of Policy and Utility Function in Rational Agents

Any agent that is part of the environment it interacts with and has versatile actuators (such as arms and fingers), will in principle have the ability to self-modify -- for example by changing its own source code. As we continue to create more and more intelligent agents, chances increase that they will learn about this ability. The question is: will they want to use it? For example, highly intelligent systems may find ways to change their goals to something more easily achievable, thereby `escaping' the control of their designers. In an important paper, Omohundro (2008) argued that goal preservation is a fundamental drive of any intelligent system, since a goal is more likely to be achieved if future versions of the agent strive towards the same goal. In this paper, we formalise this argument in general reinforcement learning, and explore situations where it fails. Our conclusion is that the self-modification possibility is harmless if and only if the value function of the agent anticipates the consequences of self-modifications and use the current utility function when evaluating the future.Comment: Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) 201

The meaning of life in a developing universe

The evolution of life on Earth has produced an organism that is beginning to model and understand its own evolution and the possible future evolution of life in the universe. These models and associated evidence show that evolution on Earth has a trajectory. The scale over which living processes are organized cooperatively has increased progressively, as has its evolvability. Recent theoretical advances raise the possibility that this trajectory is itself part of a wider developmental process. According to these theories, the developmental process has been shaped by a larger evolutionary process that involves the reproduction of universes. This evolutionary process has tuned the key parameters of the universe to increase the likelihood that life will emerge and develop to produce outcomes that are successful in the larger process (e.g. a key outcome may be to produce life and intelligence that intentionally reproduces the universe and tunes the parameters of ‘offspring’ universes). Theory suggests that when life emerges on a planet, it moves along this trajectory of its own accord. However, at a particular point evolution will continue to advance only if organisms emerge that decide to advance the evolutionary process intentionally. The organisms must be prepared to make this commitment even though the ultimate nature and destination of the process is uncertain, and may forever remain unknown. Organisms that complete this transition to intentional evolution will drive the further development of life and intelligence in the universe. Humanity’s increasing understanding of the evolution of life in the universe is rapidly bringing it to the threshold of this major evolutionary transition

The quantum cryptographic switch

We illustrate using a quantum system the principle of a cryptographic switch, in which a third party (Charlie) can control to a continuously varying degree the amount of information the receiver (Bob) receives, after the sender (Alice) has sent her information. Suppose Charlie transmits a Bell state to Alice and Bob. Alice uses dense coding to transmit two bits to Bob. Only if the 2-bit information corresponding to choice of Bell state is made available by Charlie to Bob can the latter recover Alice's information. By varying the information he gives, Charlie can continuously vary the information recovered by Bob. The performance of the protocol subjected to the squeezed generalized amplitude damping channel is considered. We also present a number of practical situations where a cryptographic switch would be of use.Comment: 7 pages, 4 Figure

In-situ real time monitoring of the polymerization in gel-cast ceramic processes

Gelcasting requires making a mixture of a slurry of ceramic powder in a solution of organic monomers and casting it in a mold. Gelcasting is different from injection molding in that it separates mold filling from setting during conversion of the ceramic slurry to a formed green part. In this work, NMR spectroscopy and imaging were used for in-situ monitoring of the gelation process and gelcasting of alumina. {sup 1}H NMR spectra and images are obtained during polymerization of a mixture of soluble reactive acrylamide monomers. Polymerization was initiated by adding an initiator and an accelerator to form long- chain, crosslinked polymers. Multidimensional NMR imaging was used for in-situ monitoring of the process and for verification of homogeneous polymerization. Comparison of the modeled intensities with acquired images shows a direction extraction of T{sub 1} data from the images

The Mathematical Universe

I explore physics implications of the External Reality Hypothesis (ERH) that there exists an external physical reality completely independent of us humans. I argue that with a sufficiently broad definition of mathematics, it implies the Mathematical Universe Hypothesis (MUH) that our physical world is an abstract mathematical structure. I discuss various implications of the ERH and MUH, ranging from standard physics topics like symmetries, irreducible representations, units, free parameters, randomness and initial conditions to broader issues like consciousness, parallel universes and Godel incompleteness. I hypothesize that only computable and decidable (in Godel's sense) structures exist, which alleviates the cosmological measure problem and help explain why our physical laws appear so simple. I also comment on the intimate relation between mathematical structures, computations, simulations and physical systems.Comment: Replaced to match accepted Found. Phys. version, 31 pages, 5 figs; more details at http://space.mit.edu/home/tegmark/toe.htm

Computational and Biological Analogies for Understanding Fine-Tuned Parameters in Physics

In this philosophical paper, we explore computational and biological analogies to address the fine-tuning problem in cosmology. We first clarify what it means for physical constants or initial conditions to be fine-tuned. We review important distinctions such as the dimensionless and dimensional physical constants, and the classification of constants proposed by Levy-Leblond. Then we explore how two great analogies, computational and biological, can give new insights into our problem. This paper includes a preliminary study to examine the two analogies. Importantly, analogies are both useful and fundamental cognitive tools, but can also be misused or misinterpreted. The idea that our universe might be modelled as a computational entity is analysed, and we discuss the distinction between physical laws and initial conditions using algorithmic information theory. Smolin introduced the theory of "Cosmological Natural Selection" with a biological analogy in mind. We examine an extension of this analogy involving intelligent life. We discuss if and how this extension could be legitimated. Keywords: origin of the universe, fine-tuning, physical constants, initial conditions, computational universe, biological universe, role of intelligent life, cosmological natural selection, cosmological artificial selection, artificial cosmogenesis.Comment: 25 pages, Foundations of Science, in pres

Rank change and growth within social hierarchies of the orange clownfish, Amphiprion percula

Social hierarchies within groups define the distribution of resources and provide benefits that support the collective group or favor dominant members. The progression of individuals through social hierarchies is a valuable characteristic for quantifying population dynamics. On coral reefs, some clownfish maintain size-based hierarchical communities where individuals queue through social ranks. The cost of waiting in a lower-ranked position is outweighed by the reduced risk of eviction and mortality. The orange clownfish, Amphiprion percula, maintains stable social groups with subordinate individuals queuing to be part of the dominant breeding pair. Strong association with their host anemone, complex social interactions, and relatively low predation rates make them ideal model organisms to assess changes in group dynamics through time in their natural environment. Here, we investigate the rank changes and isometric growth rates of A. percula from 247 naturally occurring social groups in Kimbe Island, Papua New Guinea (5° 12′ 13.54″ S, 150° 22′ 32.69″ E). We used DNA profiling to assign and track individuals over eight years between 2011 and 2019. Over half of the individuals survived alongside two or three members of their original social group, with twelve breeding pairs persisting over the study period. Half of the surviving individuals increased in rank and experienced double the growth rate of those that maintained their rank. Examining rank change in a wild fish population provides new insights into the complex social hierarchies of reef fishes and their role in social evolution