Optimisation of the T-square sampling method to estimate population sizes.

Population size and density estimates are needed to plan resource requirements and plan health related interventions. Sampling frames are not always available necessitating surveys using non-standard household sampling methods. These surveys are time-consuming, difficult to validate, and their implementation could be optimised. Here, we discuss an example of an optimisation procedure for rapid population estimation using T-Square sampling which has been used recently to estimate population sizes in emergencies. A two-stage process was proposed to optimise the T-Square method wherein the first stage optimises the sample size and the second stage optimises the pathway connecting the sampling points. The proposed procedure yields an optimal solution if the distribution of households is described by a spatially homogeneous Poisson process and can be sub-optimal otherwise. This research provides the first step in exploring how optimisation techniques could be applied to survey designs thereby providing more timely and accurate information for planning interventions

Impact of Indian Total Sanitation Campaign on latrine coverage and use: a cross-sectional study in Orissa three years following programme implementation.

BACKGROUND: Faced with a massive shortfall in meeting sanitation targets, some governments have implemented campaigns that use subsidies focused on latrine construction to overcome income constraints and rapidly expand coverage. In settings like rural India where open defecation is common, this may result in sub-optimal compliance (use), thereby continuing to leave the population exposed to human excreta. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study to investigate latrine coverage and use among 20 villages (447 households, 1933 individuals) in Orissa, India where the Government of India's Total Sanitation Campaign had been implemented at least three years previously. We defined coverage as the proportion of households that had a latrine; for use we identified the proportion of households with at least one reported user and among those, the extent of reported use by each member of the household. RESULTS: Mean latrine coverage among the villages was 72% (compared to <10% in comparable villages in the same district where the Total Sanitation Campaign had not yet been implemented), though three of the villages had less than 50% coverage. Among these households with latrines, more than a third (39%) were not being used by any member of the household. Well over a third (37%) of the members of households with latrines reported never defecating in their latrines. Less than half (47%) of the members of such households reported using their latrines at all times for defecation. Combined with the 28% of households that did not have latrines, it appears that most defecation events in these communities are still practiced in the open. CONCLUSION: A large-scale campaign to implement sanitation has achieved substantial gains in latrine coverage in this population. Nevertheless, gaps in coverage and widespread continuation of open defecation will result in continued exposure to human excreta, reducing the potential for health gains

Don't spin the pen: two alternative methods for second-stage sampling in urban cluster surveys

In two-stage cluster surveys, the traditional method used in second-stage sampling (in which the first household in a cluster is selected) is time-consuming and may result in biased estimates of the indicator of interest. Firstly, a random direction from the center of the cluster is selected, usually by spinning a pen. The houses along that direction are then counted out to the boundary of the cluster, and one is then selected at random to be the first household surveyed. This process favors households towards the center of the cluster, but it could easily be improved. During a recent meningitis vaccination coverage survey in Maradi, Niger, we compared this method of first household selection to two alternatives in urban zones: 1) using a superimposed grid on the map of the cluster area and randomly selecting an intersection; and 2) drawing the perimeter of the cluster area using a Global Positioning System (GPS) and randomly selecting one point within the perimeter. Although we only compared a limited number of clusters using each method, we found the sampling grid method to be the fastest and easiest for field survey teams, although it does require a map of the area. Selecting a random GPS point was also found to be a good method, once adequate training can be provided. Spinning the pen and counting households to the boundary was the most complicated and time-consuming. The two methods tested here represent simpler, quicker and potentially more robust alternatives to spinning the pen for cluster surveys in urban areas. However, in rural areas, these alternatives would favor initial household selection from lower density (or even potentially empty) areas. Bearing in mind these limitations, as well as available resources and feasibility, investigators should choose the most appropriate method for their particular survey context

Child feces disposal practices in rural Orissa: a cross sectional study.

BACKGROUND: An estimated 2.5 billion people worldwide lack access to improved sanitation facilities. While large-scale programs in some countries have increased latrine coverage, they sometimes fail to ensure optimal latrine use, including the safe disposal of child feces, a significant source of exposure to fecal pathogens. We undertook a cross-sectional study to explore fecal disposal practices among children in rural Orissa, India in villages where the Government of India's Total Sanitation Campaign had been implemented at least three years prior to the study. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted surveys with heads of 136 households with 145 children under 5 years of age in 20 villages. We describe defecation and feces disposal practices and explore associations between safe disposal and risk factors. Respondents reported that children commonly defecated on the ground, either inside the household (57.5%) for pre-ambulatory children or around the compound (55.2%) for ambulatory children. Twenty percent of pre-ambulatory children used potties and nappies; the same percentage of ambulatory children defecated in a latrine. While 78.6% of study children came from 106 households with a latrine, less than a quarter (22.8%) reported using them for disposal of child feces. Most child feces were deposited with other household waste, both for pre-ambulatory (67.5%) and ambulatory (58.1%) children. After restricting the analysis to households owning a latrine, the use of a nappy or potty was associated with safe disposal of feces (OR 6.72, 95%CI 1.02-44.38) though due to small sample size the regression could not adjust for confounders. CONCLUSIONS: In the area surveyed, the Total Sanitation Campaign has not led to high levels of safe disposal of child feces. Further research is needed to identify the actual scope of this potential gap in programming, the health risk presented and interventions to minimize any adverse effect

An algorithm to assess methodological quality of nutrition and mortality cross-sectional surveys: development and application to surveys conducted in Darfur, Sudan

Background Nutrition and mortality surveys are the main tools whereby evidence on the health status of populations affected by disasters and armed conflict is quantified and monitored over time. Several reviews have consistently revealed a lack of rigor in many surveys. We describe an algorithm for analyzing nutritional and mortality survey reports to identify a comprehensive range of errors that may result in sampling, response, or measurement biases and score quality. We apply the algorithm to surveys conducted in Darfur, Sudan. Methods We developed an algorithm based on internationally agreed upon methods and best practices. Penalties are attributed for a list of errors, and an overall score is built from the summation of penalties accrued by the survey as a whole. To test the algorithm reproducibility, it was independently applied by three raters on 30 randomly selected survey reports. The algorithm was further applied to more than 100 surveys conducted in Darfur, Sudan. Results The Intra Class Correlation coefficient was 0.79 for mortality surveys and 0.78 for nutrition surveys. The overall median quality score and range of about 100 surveys conducted in Darfur were 0.60 (0.12-0.93) and 0.675 (0.23-0.86) for mortality and nutrition surveys, respectively. They varied between the organizations conducting the surveys, with no major trend over time. Conclusion Our study suggests that it is possible to systematically assess quality of surveys and reveals considerable problems with the quality of nutritional and particularly mortality surveys conducted in the Darfur crisis.BioMed Central Open acces

Change-of-state Paradigms and the middle in Kinyarwanda

This paper investigates the derivational relationships among members of verbal paradigms in Kinyarwanda (Bantu JD.61; Rwanda) by pursuing two interrelated goals. First, I describe a variety of derivational strategies for marking transitive and intransitive variants in change-of-state verb paradigms. Second, I focus on the detransitivizing morpheme –ik which serves as one possible marking for intransitive members of these paradigms. Ultimately, I argue that this morpheme is a marker of middle voice, and the variety of readings which appear with this form can be subsumed under a single operation of argument suppression. Finally, I provide a discussion of reflexives and the apparent lack of a reflexive reading with –ik by arguing that this reading is blocked by either lexical reflexives or the reflexive prefix i–

Old and new cluster designs in emergency field surveys: in search of a one-fits-all solution

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Introduction</p> <p>Cluster surveys are frequently used to measure key nutrition and health indicators in humanitarian emergencies. The survey design of 30 clusters of 7 children (30 × 7) was initially proposed by the World Health Organization for measuring vaccination coverage, and later a design of 30 clusters of 30 children (30 × 30) was introduced to measure acute malnutrition in emergency settings. Recently, designs of 33 clusters of 6 children (33 × 6) and 67 clusters of 3 children (67 × 3) have been proposed as alternatives that enable measurement of several key indicators with sufficient precision, while offering substantial savings in time. This paper explores expected effects of using 67 × 3, 33 × 6, or 30 × 7 designs instead of a "standard" 30 × 30 design on precision and accuracy of estimates, and on time required to complete the survey.</p> <p>Analysis</p> <p>The 67 × 3, 33 × 6, and 30 × 7 designs are expected to be more statistically efficient for measuring outcomes having high design effects (e.g., vaccination coverage, vitamin A distribution coverage, or access to safe water sources), and less efficient for measuring outcomes with more within-cluster variability, such as global acute malnutrition or anemia. Because of small sample sizes, these designs may not provide sufficient levels of precision to measure crude mortality rates. Given the small number (3 to 7) of survey subjects per cluster, it may be hard to select representative samples of subjects within clusters.</p> <p>The smaller sample size in these designs will likely result in substantial time savings. The magnitude of the savings will depend on several factors, including the average travel time between clusters. The 67 × 3 design will provide the least time savings. The 33 × 6 and 30 × 7 designs perform similarly to each other, both in terms of statistical efficiency and in terms of time required to complete the survey.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Cluster designs discussed in this paper may offer substantial time and cost savings compared to the traditional 30 × 30 design, and may provide acceptable levels of precision when measuring outcomes that have high intracluster homogeneity. Further investigation is required to determine whether these designs can consistently provide accurate point estimates for key outcomes of interest. Organizations conducting cluster surveys in emergency settings need to build their technical capacity in survey design to be able to calculate context-specific sample sizes individually for each planned survey.</p

Precision, time, and cost: a comparison of three sampling designs in an emergency setting

The conventional method to collect data on the health, nutrition, and food security status of a population affected by an emergency is a 30 × 30 cluster survey. This sampling method can be time and resource intensive and, accordingly, may not be the most appropriate one when data are needed rapidly for decision making. In this study, we compare the precision, time and cost of the 30 × 30 cluster survey with two alternative sampling designs: a 33 × 6 cluster design (33 clusters, 6 observations per cluster) and a 67 × 3 cluster design (67 clusters, 3 observations per cluster). Data for each sampling design were collected concurrently in West Darfur, Sudan in September-October 2005 in an emergency setting. Results of the study show the 30 × 30 design to provide more precise results (i.e. narrower 95% confidence intervals) than the 33 × 6 and 67 × 3 design for most child-level indicators. Exceptions are indicators of immunization and vitamin A capsule supplementation coverage which show a high intra-cluster correlation. Although the 33 × 6 and 67 × 3 designs provide wider confidence intervals than the 30 × 30 design for child anthropometric indicators, the 33 × 6 and 67 × 3 designs provide the opportunity to conduct a LQAS hypothesis test to detect whether or not a critical threshold of global acute malnutrition prevalence has been exceeded, whereas the 30 × 30 design does not. For the household-level indicators tested in this study, the 67 × 3 design provides the most precise results. However, our results show that neither the 33 × 6 nor the 67 × 3 design are appropriate for assessing indicators of mortality. In this field application, data collection for the 33 × 6 and 67 × 3 designs required substantially less time and cost than that required for the 30 × 30 design. The findings of this study suggest the 33 × 6 and 67 × 3 designs can provide useful time- and resource-saving alternatives to the 30 × 30 method of data collection in emergency settings

Glass transition in systems without static correlations: a microscopic theory

We present a first step toward a microscopic theory for the glass transition in systems with trivial static correlations. As an example we have chosen N infinitely thin hard rods with length L, fixed with their centers on a periodic lattice with lattice constant a. Starting from the N-rod Smoluchowski equation we derive a coupled set of equations for fluctuations of reduced k-rod densities. We approximate the influence of the surrounding rods onto the dynamics of a pair of rods by introduction of an effective rotational diffusion tensor D and in this way we obtain a self-consistent equation for D. This equation exhibits a feedback mechanism leading to a slowing down of the relaxation. It involves as an input the Laplace transform v_0(l/r) at z=0, l=L/a, of a torque-torque correlator of an isolated pair of rods with distance R=ar. Our equation predicts the existence of a continuous ergodicity-breaking transition at a critical length l_c=L_c/a. To estimate the critical length we perform an approximate analytical calculation of v_0(l/r) based on a variational approach and obtain l_c^{var}=5.68, 4.84 and 3.96 for an sc, bcc and fcc lattice. We also evaluate v_0(l/r) numerically exactly from a two-rod simulation. The latter calculation leads to l_c^{num}=3.45, 2.78 and 2.20 for the corresponding lattices. Close to l_c the rotational diffusion constant decreases as D(l) ~ (l_c - l)^\gamma with \gamma=1 and a diverging time scale t_\epsilon ~ |l_c - l|^{-\delta}, \delta=2, appears. On this time scale the t- and l-dependence of the 1-rod density is determined by a master function depending only on t/t_\epsilon. In contrast to present microscopic theories our approach predicts a glass transition despite the absence of any static correlations.Comment: 22 pages, 7 figures (minor revisions in the text, corrected figures