Human Hendra Virus Encephalitis Associated with Equine Outbreak, Australia, 2008

Emergence of this virus is a serious medical, veterinary, and public health challenge

An expert-based system to predict population survival rate from health data

This work was supported by the Office of Naval Research Marine Mammal Biology Program [grant number N00014-17-1-2868].Timely detection and understanding of causes for population decline are essential for effective wildlife management and conservation. Assessing trends in population size has been the standard approach but we propose that monitoring population health could prove more effective. We collated data from seven bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) populations in southeastern U.S. to develop the Veterinary Expert System for Outcome Prediction (VESOP), which estimates survival probability using a suite of health measures identified by experts as indices for inflammatory, metabolic, pulmonary, and neuroendocrine systems. VESOP was implemented using logistic regression within a Bayesian analysis framework, and parameters were fit using records from five of the sites that had a robust stranding network and frequent photographic identification (photo-ID) surveys to document definitive survival outcomes. We also conducted capture-mark-recapture (CMR) analyses of photo-ID data to obtain separate estimates of population survival rates for comparison with VESOP survival estimates. VESOP analyses found multiple measures of health, particularly markers of inflammation, were predictive of 1- and 2-year individual survival. The highest mortality risk one year following health assessment related to low alkaline phosphatase, with an odds ratio of 10.2 (95% CI 3.41-26.8), while 2-year mortality was most influenced by elevated globulin (9.60; 95% CI 3.88-22.4); both are markers of inflammation. The VESOP model predicted population-level survival rates that correlated with estimated survival rates from CMR analyses for the same populations (1-year Pearson's r = 0.99; p = 1.52e-05, 2-year r = 0.94; p = 0.001). While our proposed approach will not detect acute mortality threats that are largely independent of animal health, such as harmful algal blooms, it is applicable for detecting chronic health conditions that increase mortality risk. Random sampling of the population is important and advancement in remote sampling methods could facilitate more random selection of subjects, obtainment of larger sample sizes, and extension of the approach to other wildlife species.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

An Epidemiologic Approach to the Study of Aerosolized Florida Red Tides

Very little has been published in the scientific literature on the human health effects of Florida red tide, either as human clinical case reports or formal epidemiologic studies. In addition to the health effects associated with the ingestion of contaminated shellfish, there have been multiple anecdotal reports of respiratory irritation and possible immunologic effects associated with the inhalation of aerosolized Florida red tide. To investigate the human health effects from environmental exposure to red tide toxins, we have formed an interdisciplinary team of scientists. We have created a network of public and environmental health workers who periodically report local conditions as a red tide develops. In addition, we have access to environmental monitoring data as well as data from a surveillance program supported through the Florida Poison Information Network. When a red tide moves onshore where people might be exposed, the team rapidly assembles at the site to collect environmental samples and epidemiologic data. To assess the more long-term effects from environmental exposure to red tide toxins, we are conducting epidemiologic studies involving occupational and sensitive populations who live in areas that are regularly impacted by red tides. Other scientists are evaluating the acute and chronic respiratory effects of red tides and brevetoxins in both rat and sheep models as well as refinement of toxin measurement methodology. These models are being used to refine and validate the biomarkers of brevetoxins exposure as well as explore the pathophysiology of health effects from brevetoxins respiratory exposure. Bolstered by the additional research in rat and sheep models, this interdisciplinary scientific team is exploring the acute and chronic exposures and health effects of aerosolized Florida red tides in animal models and various human populations. In the future, this research can be applied to the understanding of exposure and effects of other aerosolized natural toxins such as cyanobacterial toxins