Feedback between drought and deforestation in the Amazon

Deforestation and drought are among the greatest environmental pressures on the Amazon rainforest, possibly destabilizing the forest-climate system. Deforestation in the Amazon reduces rainfall regionally, while this deforestation itself has been reported to be facilitated by droughts. Here we quantify the interactions between drought and deforestation spatially across the Amazon during the early 21st century. First, we relate observed fluctuations in deforestation rates to dry-season intensity; second, we determine the effect of conversion of forest to cropland on evapotranspiration; and third, we simulate the subsequent downwind reductions in rainfall due to decreased atmospheric water input. We find large variability in the response of deforestation to dry-season intensity, with a significant but small average increase in deforestation rates with a more intense dry season: With every mm of water deficit, deforestation tends to increase by 0.13% per year. Deforestation, in turn, has caused an estimated 4% of the recent observed drying, with the south-western part of the Amazon being most strongly affected. Combining both effects, we quantify a reinforcing drought-deforestation feedback that is currently small, but becomes gradually stronger with cumulative deforestation. Our results suggest that global climate change, not deforestation, is the main driver of recent drying in the Amazon. However, a feedback between drought and deforestation implies that increases in either of them will impede efforts to curb both.</p

Greenhouse gas footprints of utility-scale photovoltaic facilities at the global scale

Contains fulltext : 238859.pdf (Publisher’s version ) (Open Access

The global potential of forest restoration for drought mitigation

Forest restoration is increasingly applied as a climate change mitigation measure. Apart from sequestering carbon, the large-scale addition of trees on Earth may enhance global precipitation levels. Here we estimate the global precipitation effects of the global forest potential by estimating its effects on evaporation and simulating the downwind precipitation effect of the moisture added to the atmosphere. We find that maximum forestation would on average increase evaporation by 0.6 mm d-1 and that two-thirds of that additional evaporation would rain out over land, especially during the growing season. Next, by excluding natural grasslands and prioritizing precipitation enhancement above areas that are projected to become drier due to global climate change, we establish where on Earth forest restoration would have the greatest precipitation benefits. Our results thus provide a first step towards forest restoration programs as double climate-change mitigation efforts

The global potential of forest restoration for drought mitigation

Forest restoration is increasingly applied as a climate change mitigation measure. Apart from sequestering carbon, the large-scale addition of trees on Earth may enhance global precipitation levels. Here we estimate the global precipitation effects of the global forest potential by estimating its effects on evaporation and simulating the downwind precipitation effect of the moisture added to the atmosphere. We find that maximum forestation would on average increase evaporation by 0.6 mm d-1 and that two-thirds of that additional evaporation would rain out over land, especially during the growing season. Next, by excluding natural grasslands and prioritizing precipitation enhancement above areas that are projected to become drier due to global climate change, we establish where on Earth forest restoration would have the greatest precipitation benefits. Our results thus provide a first step towards forest restoration programs as double climate-change mitigation efforts

The global potential of forest restoration for drought mitigation

Forest restoration is increasingly applied as a climate change mitigation measure. Apart from sequestering carbon, the large-scale addition of trees on Earth may enhance global precipitation levels. Here we estimate the global precipitation effects of the global forest potential by estimating its effects on evaporation and simulating the downwind precipitation effect of the moisture added to the atmosphere. We find that maximum forestation would on average increase evaporation by 0.6 mm d-1 and that two-thirds of that additional evaporation would rain out over land, especially during the growing season. Next, by excluding natural grasslands and prioritizing precipitation enhancement above areas that are projected to become drier due to global climate change, we establish where on Earth forest restoration would have the greatest precipitation benefits. Our results thus provide a first step towards forest restoration programs as double climate-change mitigation efforts

PCR-GLOBWB 2 : A 5 arcmin global hydrological and water resources model

We present PCR-GLOBWB 2, a global hydrology and water resources model. Compared to previous versions of PCR-GLOBWB, this version fully integrates water use. Sector-specific water demand, groundwater and surface water withdrawal, water consumption, and return flows are dynamically calculated at every time step and interact directly with the simulated hydrology. PCR-GLOBWB 2 has been fully rewritten in Python and PCRaster Python and has a modular structure, allowing easier replacement, maintenance, and development of model components. PCR-GLOBWB 2 has been implemented at 5 arcmin resolution, but a version parameterized at 30 arcmin resolution is also available. Both versions are available as open-source codes on https://github.com/UU-Hydro/PCR-GLOBWB-model (Sutanudjaja et al., 2017a). PCR-GLOBWB 2 has its own routines for groundwater dynamics and surface water routing. These relatively simple routines can alternatively be replaced by dynamically coupling PCR-GLOBWB 2 to a global two-layer groundwater model and 1-D-2-D hydrodynamic models. Here, we describe the main components of the model, compare results of the 30 and 5 arcmin versions, and evaluate their model performance using Global Runoff Data Centre discharge data. Results show that model performance of the 5 arcmin version is notably better than that of the 30 arcmin version. Furthermore, we compare simulated time series of total water storage (TWS) of the 5 arcmin model with those observed with GRACE, showing similar negative trends in areas of prevalent groundwater depletion. Also, we find that simulated total water withdrawal matches reasonably well with reported water withdrawal from AQUASTAT, while water withdrawal by source and sector provide mixed results

Orbitally Forced Hyperstratification of the Oligocene South Atlantic Ocean

Pelagic sediments from the subtropical South Atlantic Ocean contain geographically extensive Oligocene ooze and chalk layers that consist almost entirely of the calcareous nannofossil Braarudosphaera. Poor recovery and the lack of precise dating of these horizons in previous studies has limited the understanding of the number of acmes, their timing and durations, and therefore their likely cause. Here we present a high-resolution, astronomically tuned stratigraphy of Braarudosphaera oozes (29.5–27.9 Ma) from Ocean Drilling Program Site 1264 in the southeastern Atlantic Ocean. We identify seven episodes with highly abundant Braarudosphaera. Four of these acme events coincide with maxima and three with minima in the ~110 and 405-kyr paced eccentricity cycles. The longest lasting acme event corresponds to a pronounced minimum in the ~2.4-Myr eccentricity cycle. In the modern ocean, Braarudosphaera occurrences are limited to shallow marine and neritic settings, and the calcified coccospheres of Braarudosphaera are probably produced during a resting stage in the algal life cycle. Therefore, we hypothesize that the Oligocene acmes point to extensive and episodic (hyper) stratified surface water conditions, with a shallow pycnocline that may have served as a virtual seafloor and (partially/temporarily) prevented the coccospheres from sinking in the pelagic realm. We speculate that hyperstratification was either extended across large areas of the South Atlantic basin, through the formation of relatively hyposaline surface waters, or eddy contained through strong isopycnals at the base of eddies. Astronomical forcing of atmospheric and/or oceanic circulation could have triggered these conditions through either sustained rainfall over the open ocean and adjacent land masses or increased Agulhas Leakage