Measuring the predictability of life outcomes with a scientific mass collaboration.

How predictable are life trajectories? We investigated this question with a scientific mass collaboration using the common task method; 160 teams built predictive models for six life outcomes using data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, a high-quality birth cohort study. Despite using a rich dataset and applying machine-learning methods optimized for prediction, the best predictions were not very accurate and were only slightly better than those from a simple benchmark model. Within each outcome, prediction error was strongly associated with the family being predicted and weakly associated with the technique used to generate the prediction. Overall, these results suggest practical limits to the predictability of life outcomes in some settings and illustrate the value of mass collaborations in the social sciences

Reinforcing Stereotypes? Race and Local Television News Coverage of Congress

Despite the increasingly diverse legislative records of African-American members of Congress, much of the population continues to believe that African-American legislators are interested only in minority issues. If African-American House members are becoming more like their nonblack colleagues, then why do many citizens continue to hold these stereotypes about African-American legislators? Copyright (c) 2004 by the Southwestern Social Science Association.

Race, Political Empowerment, and Minority Perceptions of Judicial Fairness

Recent studies of the impact of black elite electoral success on the system-supporting attitudes of black citizens have yielded mixed, but generally unimpressive, empirical results. We extend this limited research by examining the effects of the presence of black judicial officials on public attitudes toward a state judicial system. Copyright (c) 2005 by the Southwestern Social Science Association.