Isolated effective coherence (iCoh): causal information flow excluding indirect paths

A problem of great interest in real world systems, where multiple time series measurements are available, is the estimation of the intra-system causal relations. For instance, electric cortical signals are used for studying functional connectivity between brain areas, their directionality, the direct or indirect nature of the connections, and the spectral characteristics (e.g. which oscillations are preferentially transmitted). The earliest spectral measure of causality was Akaike's (1968) seminal work on the noise contribution ratio, reflecting direct and indirect connections. Later, a major breakthrough was the partial directed coherence of Baccala and Sameshima (2001) for direct connections. The simple aim of this study consists of two parts: (1) To expose a major problem with the partial directed coherence, where it is shown that it is affected by irrelevant connections to such an extent that it can misrepresent the frequency response, thus defeating the main purpose for which the measure was developed, and (2) To provide a solution to this problem, namely the "isolated effective coherence", which consists of estimating the partial coherence under a multivariate auto-regressive model, followed by setting all irrelevant associations to zero, other than the particular directional association of interest. Simple, realistic, toy examples illustrate the severity of the problem with the partial directed coherence, and the solution achieved by the isolated effective coherence. For the sake of reproducible research, the software code implementing the methods discussed here (using lazarus free-pascal "www.lazarus.freepascal.org"), including the test data as text files, are freely available at: https://sites.google.com/site/pascualmarqui/home/icoh-isolated-effective-coherenceComment: 2014-02-21 pre-print, technical report, KEY Institute for Brain-Mind Research, University of Zurich, et a

Beta-blockers to prevent gastroesophageal varices in patients with cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND: Nonselective beta-adrenergic blockers decrease portal pressure and prevent variceal hemorrhage. Their effectiveness in preventing varices is unknown. METHODS: We randomly assigned 213 patients with cirrhosis and portal hypertension (minimal hepatic venous pressure gradient [HVPG] of 6 mm Hg) to receive timolol, a nonselective beta-blocker (108 patients), or placebo (105 patients). The primary end point was the development of gastroesophageal varices or variceal hemorrhage. Endoscopy and HVPG measurements were repeated yearly. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 54.9 months, the rate of the primary end point did not differ significantly between the timolol group and the placebo group (39 percent and 40 percent, respectively; P=0.89), nor were there significant differences in the rates of ascites, encephalopathy, liver transplantation, or death. Serious adverse events were more common among patients in the timolol group than among those in the placebo group (18 percent vs. 6 percent, P=0.006). Varices developed less frequently among patients with a baseline HVPG of less than 10 mm Hg and among those in whom the HVPG decreased by more than 10 percent at one year and more frequently among those in whom the HVPG increased by more than 10 percent at one year. CONCLUSIONS: Nonselective beta-blockers are ineffective in preventing varices in unselected patients with cirrhosis and portal hypertension and are associated with an increased number of adverse events. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00006398.

Radiocarbon-based source apportionment of elemental carbon aerosols at two South Asian receptor observatories over a full annual cycle

Black carbon (BC) aerosols impact climate and air quality. Since BC from fossil versus biomass combustion have different optical properties and different abilities to penetrate the lungs, it is important to better understand their relative contributions in strongly affected regions such as South Asia. This study reports the first year-round 14C-based source apportionment of elemental carbon (EC), the mass-based correspondent to BC, using as regional receptor sites the international Maldives Climate Observatory in Hanimaadhoo (MCOH) and the mountaintop observatory of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology in Sinhagad, India (SINH). For the highly-polluted winter season (December–March), the fractional contribution to EC from biomass burning (fbio) was 53 ± 5% (n = 6) at MCOH and 56 ± 3% at SINH (n = 5). The fbio for the non-winter remainder was 53 ± 11% (n = 6) at MCOH and 48 ± 8% (n = 7) at SINH. This observation-based constraint on near-equal contributions from biomass burning and fossil fuel combustion at both sites compare with predictions from eight technology-based emission inventory (EI) models for India of (fbio)EI spanning 55–88%, suggesting that most current EI for Indian BC systematically under predict the relative contribution of fossil fuel combustion. A continued iterative testing of bottom-up EI with top-down observational source constraints has the potential to lead to reduced uncertainties regarding EC sources and emissions to the benefit of both models of climate and air quality as well as guide efficient policies to mitigate emissions

Matching structure and bargaining outcomes in buyer–seller networks

We examine the relationship between the matching structure of a bipartite (buyer-seller) network and the (expected) shares of the unit surplus that each connected pair in this network can create. We show that in different bargaining environments, these shares are closely related to the Gallai-Edmonds Structure Theorem. This theorem characterizes the structure of maximum matchings in an undirected graph. We show that the relationship between the (expected) shares and the tructure Theorem is not an artefact of a particular bargaining mechanism or trade centralization. However, this relationship does not necessarily generalize to non-bipartite networks or to networks with heterogeneous link values

Delayed Appearance of High Altitude Retinal Hemorrhages

When closely examined, a very large amount of climbers exhibit retinal hemorrhages during exposure to high altitudes. The incidence of retinal hemorrhages may be greater than previously appreciated as a definite time lag was observed between highest altitude reached and development of retinal bleeding. Retinal hemorrhages should not be considered warning signs of impending severe altitude illness due to their delayed appearance

Ancient Migratory Events in the Middle East: New Clues from the Y-Chromosome Variation of Modern Iranians

Knowledge of high resolution Y-chromosome haplogroup diversification within Iran provides important geographic context regarding the spread and compartmentalization of male lineages in the Middle East and southwestern Asia. At present, the Iranian population is characterized by an extraordinary mix of different ethnic groups speaking a variety of Indo-Iranian, Semitic and Turkic languages. Despite these features, only few studies have investigated the multiethnic components of the Iranian gene pool. In this survey 938 Iranian male DNAs belonging to 15 ethnic groups from 14 Iranian provinces were analyzed for 84 Y-chromosome biallelic markers and 10 STRs. The results show an autochthonous but non-homogeneous ancient background mainly composed by J2a sub-clades with different external contributions. The phylogeography of the main haplogroups allowed identifying post-glacial and Neolithic expansions toward western Eurasia but also recent movements towards the Iranian region from western Eurasia (R1b-L23), Central Asia (Q-M25), Asia Minor (J2a-M92) and southern Mesopotamia (J1-Page08). In spite of the presence of important geographic barriers (Zagros and Alborz mountain ranges, and the Dasht-e Kavir and Dash-e Lut deserts) which may have limited gene flow, AMOVA analysis revealed that language, in addition to geography, has played an important role in shaping the nowadays Iranian gene pool. Overall, this study provides a portrait of the Y-chromosomal variation in Iran, useful for depicting a more comprehensive history of the peoples of this area as well as for reconstructing ancient migration routes. In addition, our results evidence the important role of the Iranian plateau as source and recipient of gene flow between culturally and genetically distinct population