Terrorism in Australia: factors associated with perceived threat and incident-critical behaviours

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>To help improve incident preparedness this study assessed socio-demographic and socio-economic predictors of perceived risk of terrorism within Australia and willingness to comply with public safety directives during such incidents.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The terrorism perception question module was incorporated into the New South Wales Population Health Survey and was completed by a representative sample of 2,081 respondents in early 2007. Responses were weighted against the New South Wales population.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Multivariate analyses indicated that those with no formal educational qualifications were significantly more likely (OR = 2.10, 95%CI:1.32–3.35, p < 0.001) to think that a terrorist attack is very or extremely likely to occur in Australia and also more likely (OR = 3.62, 95%CI:2.25–5.83, p < 0.001) to be very or extremely concerned that they or a family member would be directly affected, compared to those with a university-level qualification. Speaking a language other than English at home predicted high concern (very/extremely) that self or family would be directly affected (OR = 3.02, 95%CI:2.02–4.53, p < 0.001) and was the strongest predictor of having made associated changes in living (OR = 3.27, 95%CI:2.17–4.93, p < 0.001). Being female predicted willingness to evacuate from public facilities. Speaking a language other than English at home predicted low willingness to evacuate.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Low education level is a risk factor for high terrorism risk perception and concerns regarding potential impacts. The pattern of concern and response among those of migrant background may reflect secondary social impacts associated with heightened community threat, rather than the direct threat of terrorism itself. These findings highlight the need for terrorism risk communication and related strategies to address the specific concerns of these sub-groups as a critical underpinning of population-level preparedness.</p

Uncertainty quantification for kinetic models in socio-economic and life sciences

Kinetic equations play a major rule in modeling large systems of interacting particles. Recently the legacy of classical kinetic theory found novel applications in socio-economic and life sciences, where processes characterized by large groups of agents exhibit spontaneous emergence of social structures. Well-known examples are the formation of clusters in opinion dynamics, the appearance of inequalities in wealth distributions, flocking and milling behaviors in swarming models, synchronization phenomena in biological systems and lane formation in pedestrian traffic. The construction of kinetic models describing the above processes, however, has to face the difficulty of the lack of fundamental principles since physical forces are replaced by empirical social forces. These empirical forces are typically constructed with the aim to reproduce qualitatively the observed system behaviors, like the emergence of social structures, and are at best known in terms of statistical information of the modeling parameters. For this reason the presence of random inputs characterizing the parameters uncertainty should be considered as an essential feature in the modeling process. In this survey we introduce several examples of such kinetic models, that are mathematically described by nonlinear Vlasov and Fokker--Planck equations, and present different numerical approaches for uncertainty quantification which preserve the main features of the kinetic solution.Comment: To appear in "Uncertainty Quantification for Hyperbolic and Kinetic Equations

Mental Health Diagnoses and Utilization of VA Non-Mental Health Medical Services Among Returning Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans

Over 35% of returned Iraq and Afghanistan veterans in VA care have received mental health diagnoses; the most prevalent is post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Little is known about these patients’ use of non-mental health medical services and the impact of mental disorders on utilization. To compare utilization across three groups of Iraq and Afghanistan veterans: those without mental disorders, those with mental disorders other than PTSD, and those with PTSD. National, descriptive study of 249,440 veterans newly utilizing VA healthcare between October 7, 2001 and March 31, 2007, followed until March 31, 2008. We used ICD9-CM diagnostic codes to classify mental health status. We compared utilization of outpatient non-mental health services, primary care, medical subspecialty, ancillary services, laboratory tests/diagnostic procedures, emergency services, and hospitalizations during veterans’ first year in VA care. Results were adjusted for demographics and military service and VA facility characteristics. Veterans with mental disorders had 42–146% greater utilization than those without mental disorders, depending on the service category (all P &lt; 0.001). Those with PTSD had the highest utilization in all categories: 71–170% greater utilization than those without mental disorders (all P &lt; 0.001). In adjusted analyses, compared with veterans without mental disorders, those with mental disorders other than PTSD had 55% higher utilization of all non-mental health outpatient services; those with PTSD had 91% higher utilization. Female sex and lower rank were also independently associated with greater utilization. Veterans with mental health diagnoses, particularly PTSD, utilize significantly more VA non-mental health medical services. As more veterans return home, we must ensure resources are allocated to meet their outpatient, inpatient, and emergency needs

Alert but less alarmed: a pooled analysis of terrorism threat perception in Australia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Previous Australian research has highlighted disparities in community perceptions of the threat posed by terrorism. A study with a large sample size is needed to examine reported concerns and anticipated responses of community sub-groups and to determine their consistency with existing Australian and international findings.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Representative samples of New South Wales (NSW) adults completed terrorism perception questions as part of computer assisted telephone interviews (CATI) in 2007 (N = 2081) and 2010 (N = 2038). Responses were weighted against the NSW population. Data sets from the two surveys were pooled and multivariate multilevel analyses conducted to identify health and socio-demographic factors associated with higher perceived risk of terrorism and evacuation response intentions, and to examine changes over time.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In comparison with 2007, Australians in 2010 were significantly more likely to believe that a terrorist attack would occur in Australia (Adjusted Odd Ratios (AOR) = 1.24, 95%CI:1.06-1.45) but felt less concerned that they would be directly affected by such an incident (AOR = 0.65, 95%CI:0.55-0.75). Higher perceived risk of terrorism and related changes in living were associated with middle age, female gender, lower education and higher reported psychological distress. Australians of migrant background reported significantly lower likelihood of terrorism (AOR = 0.52, 95%CI:0.39-0.70) but significantly higher concern that they would be personally affected by such an incident (AOR = 1.57, 95%CI:1.21-2.04) and having made changes in the way they live due to this threat (AOR = 2.47, 95%CI:1.88-3.25). Willingness to evacuate homes and public places in response to potential incidents increased significantly between 2007 and 2010 (AOR = 1.53, 95%CI:1.33-1.76).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>While an increased proportion of Australians believe that the national threat of terrorism remains high, concern about being personally affected has moderated and may reflect habituation to this threat. Key sub-groups remain disproportionately concerned, notably those with lower education and migrant groups. The dissonance observed in findings relating to Australians of migrant background appears to reflect wider socio-cultural concerns associated with this issue. Disparities in community concerns regarding terrorism-related threat require active policy consideration and specific initiatives to reduce the vulnerabilities of known risk groups, particularly in the aftermath of future incidents.</p

Use of mental health services among disaster survivors: predisposing factors

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Given the high prevalence of mental health problems after disasters it is important to study health services utilization. This study examines predictors for mental health services (MHS) utilization among survivors of a man-made disaster in the Netherlands (May 2000).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Electronic records of survivors (n = 339; over 18 years and older) registered in a mental health service (MHS) were linked with general practice based electronic medical records (EMRs) of survivors and data obtained in surveys. EMR data were available from 16 months pre-disaster until 3 years post-disaster. Symptoms and diagnoses in the EMRs were coded according to the International Classification of Primary Care (ICPC). Surveys were carried out 2–3 weeks and 18 months post-disaster, and included validated questionnaires on psychological distress, post-traumatic stress reactions and social functioning. Demographic and disaster-related variables were available. Predisposing factors for MHS utilization 0–18 months and 18–36 months post-disaster were examined using multiple logistic regression models.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In multiple logistic models, adjusting for demographic and disaster related variables, MHS utilization was predicted by demographic variables (young age, immigrant, public health insurance, unemployment), disaster-related exposure (relocation and injuries), self-reported psychological problems and pre- and post-disaster physician diagnosed health problems (chronic diseases, musculoskeletal problems). After controlling for all health variables, disaster intrusions and avoidance reactions (OR:2.86; CI:1.48–5.53), hostility (OR:2.04; CI:1.28–3.25), pre-disaster chronic diseases (OR:1.82; CI:1.25–2.65), injuries as a result of the disaster (OR:1.80;CI:1.13–2.86), social functioning problems (OR:1.61;CI:1.05–2.44) and younger age (OR:0.98;CI:0.96–0.99) predicted MHS utilization within 18 months post-disaster. Furthermore, disaster intrusions and avoidance reactions (OR:2.29;CI:1.04–5.07) and hostility (OR:3.77;CI:1.51–9.40) predicted MHS utilization following 18 months post-disaster.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study showed that several demographic and disaster-related variables and self-reported and physician diagnosed health problems predicted post-disaster MHS-use. The most important factors to predict post-disaster MHS utilization were disaster intrusions and avoidance reactions and symptoms of hostility (which can be identified as symptoms of PTSD) and pre-disaster chronic diseases.</p

Resilience in the Face of Disaster: Prevalence and Longitudinal Course of Mental Disorders following Hurricane Ike

Objectives: Natural disasters may increase risk for a broad range of psychiatric disorders, both in the short- and in the medium-term. We sought to determine the prevalence and longitudinal course of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), generalized anxiety disorder (GAD), panic disorder (PD), depression, and suicidality in the first 18 months after Hurricane Ike. Methods: Six hundred fifty-eight adults representative of Galveston and Chambers Counties, Texas participated in a random, population-based survey. The initial assessment was conducted 2 to 5 months after Hurricane Ike struck Galveston Bay on September 13, 2008. Follow-up assessments were conducted at 5 to 9 and 14 to 18 months after Hurricane Ike. Results: Past-month prevalence of any mental disorder (20.6% to 10.9%) and hurricane-related PTSD (6.9% to 2.5%) decreased over time. Past-month prevalence of PTSD related to a non-disaster traumatic event (5.8% to 7.1%), GAD (3.1% to 1.8%), PD (0.8% to 0.7%), depression (5.0% to 5.6%), and suicidality (2.6% to 4.2%) remained relatively stable over time. Conclusions: PTSD, both due to the hurricane and due to other traumatic events, was the most prevalent psychiatric disorder 2 to 5 months after Hurricane Ike. Prevalence of psychiatric disorders declined rapidly over time, suggesting that the vast majority of individuals exposed to this natural disaster ‘bounced back’ and were resilient to long-term mental health consequences of this large-scale traumatic event

Was There Unmet Mental Health Need After the September 11, 2001 Terrorist Attacks?

Background This study examined the use of professionals for mental health problems among New York City residents who were directly affected by the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center (WTC) or had a probable diagnosis of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) or depression in its aftermath. Correlates of help seeking from professionals for mental health problems after the attacks and barriers to care were also assessed. Method Data were from a random digit dial telephone survey of 2,752 adults representative of the Greater New York Metropolitan area conducted 6 months after the September 11 terrorist attacks. Results Fifteen percent of those directly affected and 36% of those with probable PTSD or depression sought help from a professional for a mental health problem after the attacks. There was little new utilization of professionals for mental health problems after the attacks among persons who were not already receiving care prior to September 11. Barriers that prevented people from seeking help for mental health problems 6 months after the September 11 attacks included traditional barriers to care (e.g., cost) and barriers that are unique to the post-disaster context (e.g., the belief that others need the services more than oneself). Conclusions This study suggests that there was potential unmet mental health need in New York City 6 months after the September 11 attacks on the WTC, but these findings should be tempered by research showing an apparent decrease in populationrates of PTSD. In the aftermath of a disaster, interventions should target persons with mental health needs who were not previously seeking help from a professional for a mental health problem.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/40299/2/Stuber_Was There Unmet Mental Health Need_2006.pd

Exposure to the tsunami disaster, PTSD symptoms and increased substance use – an Internet based survey of male and female residents of Switzerland

BACKGROUND: After the tsunami disaster in the Indian Ocean basin an Internet based self-screening test was made available in order to facilitate contact with mental health services. Although primarily designed for surviving Swiss tourists as well as relatives and acquaintances of the victims, the screening instrument was open to anyone who felt psychologically affected by this disaster. The aim of this study was to evaluate the influences between self-declared increased substance use in the aftermath of the tsunami disaster, trauma exposure and current PTSD symptoms. METHODS: One section of the screening covered addiction related behavior. We analyzed the relationship between increased substance use, the level of PTSD symptoms and trauma exposure using multivariable logistic regression with substance use as the dependent variable. Included in the study were only subjects who reported being residents of Switzerland and the analyses were stratified by gender in order to control for possible socio-cultural or gender differences in the use of psychotropic substances. RESULTS: In women PTSD symptoms and degree of exposure enlarged the odds of increased alcohol, pharmaceuticals and cannabis use significantly. In men the relationship was more specific: PTSD symptoms and degree of exposure only enlarged the odds of increased pharmaceutical consumption significantly. Increases in alcohol, cannabis and tobacco use were only significantly associated with the degree of PTSD symptoms. CONCLUSION: The tsunami was associated with increased substance use. This study not only replicates earlier findings but also suggests for a gender specificity of post-traumatic substance use increase