Projecting the demographic impact of AIDS

A simple model that simulates the spread of AIDS is used to generate estimates of deaths from AIDS, which are incorporated into population projections covering 20 years. Preliminary results for one country are shown - not firm estimates, as the model has several arbitrarily set parameters. The results suggest that the number of infectionsand deaths could be extremely large, even if transmission of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is substantially reduced. In five years, deaths in a single country will be in the tens of thousands, and after 20 years could be hundreds of thousands and still rising. Nevertheless, the impact on population size appears small. The authors discuss why these results should not be entirely trusted, and what work remains to be done. Where HIV is relatively widespread, changes in sexual behavior, particulary increases in condom use, are essential to reduce the scale of the epidemic. Earlier changes are more effective than later changes. But across countries with different levels of prevalence and sexual activity, changes in sexual behavior produce similar effects.Health Indicators,,HIV AIDS,Adolescent Health,Health Monitoring&Evaluation

Europe and Central Asia region Middle East and North Africa region population projects : 1992-93 edition

Population projections for all countries are prepared annually by the Bank's Population and Human Resources Department. They are published first in summary form in the Bank's World Development Report and later in greater detail as technical notes or working papers and, in alternate years, as a book. Separate papers cover the six Bank regions: (1) Africa (sub-Saharan); (2) Latin America and the Caribbean (and North America); (3) East Asia and Pacific region and South Asia region combined; and (4) Europe and Central Asia region and Middle East and North Africa region combined. This year's projections contain two major changes from the previous edition. First, projected mortality from AIDS has been incorporated into the tables for sub-Saharan African countries. Second, demographic estimates and projections are provided separately for each of the fifteen countries that constituted the former Soviet Union. Among trends observed: The total fertility rate for the world is an estimated 3.2 children per woman in 1992. The highest total fertility rates are found in East and West Africa, where the rate is about 6. Most countries in the Asian and Latin American regions have moderate fertility of three to five children per woman, although both continents contain countries with very high and very low levels. More developed countries have the lowest fertility, with rates ranging between 2.5 and 1.5, but one of the former Soviet republics, Tajikistan, has a total fertility of 5. Europe (including the former Soviet republics) is the only continent where aggregate fertility is currently below replacement - that is, where women are not having enough children to replace themselves. Recent trends in some countries of Europe show small increases in fertility, and the projections assume that the total fertility rate will recover to replacement level by 2030. Europe is also the continent with the most homogeneous fertility levels: with the exception of four of the former Soviet republics that have total fertility rates above 3, fertility in the other 41 countries varies in a narrow range between 1.5 and 2.8. The Northern American region has the highest aggregate life expectancy, 76.7. The European region has the second highest aggregate life expectancy, 74.4. Every country in this region is above the world's average of 66. Moving from west to east through this region, life expectancies tend to decline, from a high of 78 in Iceland to a low of 66 in Turkmenistan.Earth Sciences&GIS,Demographics,Health Indicators,Health Information&Communications Technologies,

East Asia and Pacific region South Asia region population projections 1992-93 edition

Population projections for all countries are prepared annually by the Bank's Population and Human Resources Department. They are published first in summary form in the Bank's World Development Report and later in greater detail as technical notes or working papers and, in alternate years, as a book. Separate papers cover the six Bank regions: (1) Africa (sub-Saharan); (2) Latin American and the Caribbean (and Northern America); (3) East Asia and Pacific region and South Asia region combined; and (4) Europe and Central Asia region and Middle East and North Africa region combined. Among trends observed: In Asia, most countries have begun the transition from high to low fertility, with declines in many countries starting before and during the 1970s. In East and Southeast Asia, fertility has already reached a low level of 2.5 children per woman. South Asia, at 4.1 children per woman, has progressed less far in this process, and Southwest Asia has still further to go. But each subregion of the Asian continent includes countries at different stages of the fertility transition: each subregion has at least one country with a total fertility rate of 6 or greater and one country with replacement-level fertility. The projections of when replacement fertility will be reached in the region as a whole are determined by the trends in individual countries with the slowest decline; the Asian subregion aggregates will therefore be late in achieving this. South Asia has the worst mortality conditions of the Asian subregions, but improvement has been quite rapid since the mid-1970s, with life expectancy increasing from 49 to 59 years currently. Life expectancy in Southwest Asia is near the world's average, while it is well above that in East and Southeast Asia at 70 years. East and Southeast Asia contains some of the countries (Japan and Hong Kong) with the highest measured life expectancies in the world. The most populous country in the world is China, with a population of 1.2 billion. Its population growth rate, 1.5 percent in the early 1990s, is low for a low-income country and is due to the low level of fertility achieved in the last two decades. India, the second most populous country, has an estimated population of 883 million in 1992. Because of its higher total fertility rate, it is growing faster than China - 2.0 percent a year - despite higher mortality. The population of India is projected to surpass the 1 billion mark in the year 2000 and to surpass China in total population by 2120.Demographics,Health Indicators,Health Information&Communications Technologies,,Earth Sciences&GIS

Latin America and the Caribbean region (and Northern America) population projections : 1992-93 edition

Population projections for all countries are prepared annually by the World Bank's Population and Human Resources Department. They are published first in summary form in the Bank's World Development Report and later in greater detail as technical notes or working papers, and in alternate years, as a book. Separate papers cover the six Bank regions: (1) Africa (sub-Saharan); (2) Latin America and the Caribbean (and Northern America); (3) East Asia and Pacific region and South Asia region combined; and (4) Europe and Central Asia region and Middle East and North Africa region combined. Among trends observed: all of the Bank's regions have positive population growth rates, but a few countries are losing people. These countries are in one of two regions: in Latin America and the Caribbean, where several small island countries (Dominica, Grenada, and St. Kitts and Nevis) have recently had negative growth rates, and in Europe (Bulgaria, Hungary, and Ireland). In the case of the Caribbean islands, the cause of population decline is outmigration, whereas in Eastern Europe it results from a combination of below-replacement fertility and outmigration. On the American continent, fertility in all countries has dropped to below 6 children per woman, but some countries have gone much further than others. The total fertility rate for Latin America is intermediate at 3.1, and replacement fertility is projected to be reached in every country no later than 2035. In Northern America, fertility is at 2 children per woman - that is, just below replacement level. At the regional level, international net migration has a trivial effect on population growth. The most significant flow in the world occurs between Latin America and the Caribbean and Northern America, which amounts to just over one-half million persons per year. Migration often occurs for unpredictable reasons, and is often reversed in a short time. The projections of future net migration assume a gradual decline to zero from current levels.Health Information&Communications Technologies,,Earth Sciences&GIS,Demographics,Health Indicators

Asia region population projections : 1988-89 edition

Population projections are provided here for the individual countries comprising the Asia region. The projections cover the period 1985-2150. The length of the projection period was chosen to allow countries to approach stability, which for several is expected to take as long as two centuries. The paper begins with an introduction which explains what projection results are provided in the detailed tables, describes the projection methodology, and summarizes and interprets the main results.Demographics,Health Indicators,Health Information&Communications Technologies,,Health Monitoring&Evaluation

Latin America and the Caribbean region population projections 1988-89

The report which is part of a series, presents population projection tables for each country in the Latin America andCaribbean region. The report provides an explanation on projection results as well as a description of the projection methodology, summarizing the main results. The projections in the report cover the period 1985 - 2150. This time period allows countries to approach stability. The key elements in these projections are the base year (mid - 1985). Total population estimates and age - sex structures are for the base period (1985 - 90 ). Mortality, fertility and migration rates are included in the statistics.Demographics,Health Indicators,,Health Information&Communications Technologies,Health Monitoring&Evaluation

Africa region population projections - 1988-89

The report which is part of a series, presents population projection tables for each country in the Africa region. The report provides an explanation on projection results as well as a description of the projection methodology, summarizing the main results. The projections in the report cover the period 1985 - 2150. This time period allows countries to approach stability. The key elements in these projections are the base year (mid 1985). Total population estimates and age - sex structures are for the base period (1985 - 90). Mortality, fertility and migration rates are included in the statistics.Demographics,Health Indicators,Health Information&Communications Technologies,,Earth Sciences&GIS

Europe, Middle East, and North Africa region population projections : 1988-89 edition

Population projections are provided in this paper for the individual countries comprising EMENA region. The projections cover the period 1985-2150. The length of the projection period was chosen to allow countries to approach stability, which for several is projected to take as long as two centuries. The paper begins with an introduction which explains what projection results are provided in the detailed tables, describes the projection methodology, and summarizes and interprets the main results.Demographics,Health Indicators,,Health Information&Communications Technologies,Health Monitoring&Evaluation

Latin America and the Caribbean region population projections : 1990-91

This paper provides population projections for each country, economy, or territory in one World Bank region, as well as for nonborrower countries in the same geographic area. The Latin American and the Caribbean region is demographically at an intermediate stage. Fertility has declined to between 3 and 4 children per woman in all subregions as contraceptive use has continued to broaden. Life expectancy has risen to between 65 and 69, or about 10 years below countries with the most favorable mortality conditions. Some countries in the region have advanced to replacement level fertility; a few others are just starting the fertility transition. The projections show all countries in the region completing the transition by 2030 - the earliest of all regions. In this 1990-91 edition, projects are provided in a new format to permit the inclusion of data on recent demographic trends. Projection methods have changed only marginally since the previous edition. Essentially, recent country-specific data about levels and trends in fertility, mortality, and international migration are applied to available age-sex distributions in order to obtain short-run projections. Long-run projections, up to 2150, are also made under the assumptions that fertility and mortality eventually become stable and net international migration declines to zero.Demographics,Health Indicators,Health Information&Communications Technologies,,Country Population Profiles

Asia region population projections : 1989-90 edition

Of the 90 million people added to world population this year, half live in the Asia region. Asia's contribution to world population growth is proportional to its size and dwarfs the contribution of every other region. The scale of this contribution may be illustrated by the fact that India is adding to its population every year as many people as live in Australia. This paper studies population projections, covering almost two centuries from 1985 to 2150. The length of the projection period was chosen to allow populations to approach stability, which for several takes essentially the entire period. The paper begins with an introduction which explains what projection results are provided in the detailed tables, describes the projection methodology, and summarizes and interprets the main results.Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Health Indicators,Health Information&Communications Technologies,,Demographics