Projecting the demographic impact of AIDS

Abstract

A simple model that simulates the spread of AIDS is used to generate estimates of deaths from AIDS, which are incorporated into population projections covering 20 years. Preliminary results for one country are shown - not firm estimates, as the model has several arbitrarily set parameters. The results suggest that the number of infectionsand deaths could be extremely large, even if transmission of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is substantially reduced. In five years, deaths in a single country will be in the tens of thousands, and after 20 years could be hundreds of thousands and still rising. Nevertheless, the impact on population size appears small. The authors discuss why these results should not be entirely trusted, and what work remains to be done. Where HIV is relatively widespread, changes in sexual behavior, particulary increases in condom use, are essential to reduce the scale of the epidemic. Earlier changes are more effective than later changes. But across countries with different levels of prevalence and sexual activity, changes in sexual behavior produce similar effects.Health Indicators,,HIV AIDS,Adolescent Health,Health Monitoring&Evaluation