Use of regional climate model simulations as input for hydrological models for the Hindukush-Karakorum-Himalaya region

The most important climatological inputs required for the calibration and validation of hydrological models are temperature and precipitation that can be derived from observational records or alternatively from regional climate models (RCMs). In this paper, meteorological station observations and results of the PRECIS (Providing REgional Climate for Impact Studies) RCM driven by the outputs of reanalysis ERA 40 data and HadAM3P general circulation model (GCM) results are used as input in the hydrological model. The objective is to investigate the effect of precipitation and temperature simulated with the PRECIS RCM nested in these two data sets on discharge simulated with the HBV model for three river basins in the Hindukush-Karakorum-Himalaya (HKH) region. Six HBV model experiments are designed: HBV-Met, HBV-ERA and HBV-Had, HBV-MetCRU-corrected, HBV-ERABenchmark and HBV-HadBenchmark where HBV is driven by meteorological stations data, data from PRECIS nested in ERA-40 and HadAM3P, meteorological stations CRU corrected data, ERA-40 reanalysis and HadAM3P GCM data, respectively. Present day PRECIS simulations possess strong capacity to simulate spatial patterns of present day climate characteristics. However, also some quantitative biases exist in the HKH region, where PRECIS RCM simulations underestimate temperature and overestimate precipitation with respect to CRU observations. The calibration and validation results of the HBV model experiments show that the performance of HBV-Met is better than the HBV models driven by other data sources. However, using input data series from sources different from the data used in the model calibration shows that HBV-Had is more efficient than other models and HBV-Met has the least absolute relative error with respect to all other models. The uncertainties are higher in least efficient models (i.e. HBV-MetCRU-corrected and HBV-ERABenchmark) where the model parameters are also unrealistic. In terms of both robustness and uncertainty ranges the HBV models calibrated with PRECIS output performed better than other calibrated models except for HBV-Met which has shown a higher robustness. This suggests that in data sparse regions such as the HKH region data from regional climate models may be used as input in hydrological models for climate scenarios studies

Effect of flow forecasting quality on benefits of reservoir operation - a case study for the Geheyan reservoir (China)

This paper presents a methodology to determine the effect of flow forecasting quality on the benefits of reservoir operation. The benefits are calculated in terms of the electricity generated, and the quality of the flow forecasting is defined in terms of lead time and accuracy of the forecasts. In order to determine such an effect, an optimization model for reservoir operation was developed which consists of two sub-models: a long-term (monthly) and a short-term (daily) optimization sub-model. A methodology was developed to couple these two sub-models, so that both short-term benefits (time span in the order of the flow forecasting lead time) and long-term benefits (one year) were considered and balanced. Both sub-models use Discretized Dynamic Programming (DDP) as their optimization algorithms. The Geheyan reservoir on the Qingjiang River in China was taken as case study. Observed (from the 1997 hydrological year) and forecasted flow series were used to calculate the benefits. Forecasted flow series were created by adding noises to the observed series. Different magnitudes of noise reflected different levels of forecasting accuracies. The results reveal, first of all, a threshold lead time of 33 days, beyond which further extension of the forecasting lead time will not lead to a significant increase in benefits. Secondly, for lead times shorter than 33 days, a longer lead time will generally lead to a higher benefit. Thirdly, a perfect inflow forecasting with a lead time of 4 days will realize 87% of the theoretical maximum electricity generated in one year. Fourthly, for a certain lead time, more accurate forecasting leads to higher benefits. For inflow forecasting with a fixed lead time of 4 days and different forecasting accuracies, the benefits can increase by 5 to 9% compared to the actual operation results. It is concluded that the definition of the appropriate lead time will depend mainly on the physical conditions of the basin and on the characteristics of the reservoir. The derived threshold lead time (33 days) gives a theoretical upper limit for the extension of forecasting lead time. Criteria for the appropriate forecasting accuracy for a specific feasible lead-time should be defined from the benefit-accuracy relationship, starting from setting a preferred benefit level, in terms of percentage of the theoretical maximum. Inflow forecasting with a higher accuracy does not always increase the benefits, because these also depend on the operation strategies of the reservoir.\u

A Parametric Analysis of Prospect Theory's Functionals for the General Population

This paper presents the results of an experiment that completely measures the utility function and probability weighting function for different positive and negative monetary outcomes, using a representative sample of N = 1935 from the general public. The results confirm earlier findings in the lab, suggesting that utility is less pronounced than what is found in classical measurements where expected utility is assumed. Utility for losses is found to be convex, consistent with diminishing sensitivity, and the obtained loss aversion coefficient of 1.6 is moderate but in agreement with contemporary evidence. The estimated probability weighing functions have an inverse-S shape and they imply pessimism in both domains. These results show that probability weighting is also an important phenomenon in the general population. Women and lower educated individuals are found to be more risk averse, in agreement with common findings. Unlike previous studies that ascribed gender differences in risk attitudes solely to differences in the degree utility curvature, however, our results show that this finding is primarily driven by loss aversion and, for women, also by a more pessimistic psychological response towards the probability of obtaining the best possible outcome.loss aversion, utility for gains and losses, prospect theory, subjective probability weighting

Hydrological modelling improvements required in basins in the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalayas region

Millions of people rely on river water originating from basins in the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalayas (HKH), where snow- and ice-melt are significant flow components. One such basin is the Upper Indus Basin (UIB), where snow- and ice-melt can contribute more than 80% of total flow. Containing some of the world’s largest alpine glaciers, this basin may be highly susceptible to global warming and climate change, and reliable predictions of future water availability are vital for resource planning for downstream food and energy needs in a changing climate, but depend on significantly improved hydrological modelling. However, a critical assessment of available hydroclimatic data and hydrological modelling in the HKH region has identified five major failings in many published hydro-climatic studies, even those appearing in reputable international journals. The main weaknesses of these studies are: i) incorrect basin areas; ii) under-estimated precipitation; iii) incorrectly-defined glacier boundaries; iv) under-estimated snow-cover data; and v) use of biased melt factors for snow and ice during the summer months. This paper illustrates these limitations, which have either resulted in modelled flows being under-estimates of measured flows, leading to an implied severe water scarcity; or have led to the use of unrealistically high degree-day factors and over-estimates of glacier melt contributions, implying unrealistic melt rates. These effects vary amongst sub-basins. Forecasts obtained from these models cannot be used reliably in policy making or water resource development, and need revision. Detailed critical analysis and improvement of existing hydrological modelling may be equally necessary in other mountain regions across the world

Appropriate spatial sampling of rainfall for flow simulation

The objective of this study is to find the appropriate number and location of raingauges for a river basin for flow simulation by using statistical analyses and hydrological modelling. First, a statistical method is used to identify the appropriate number of raingauges. Herein the effect of the number of raingauges on the cross-correlation coefficient between areally averaged rainfall and discharge is investigated. Second, a lumped HBV model is used to investigate the effect of the number of raingauges on hydrological modelling performance. The Qingjiang River basin with 26 raingauges in China is used for a case study. The results show that both cross-correlation coefficient and modelling performance increase hyperbolically, and level off after five raingauges (therefore identified to be the appropriate number of rain-gauges) for this basin. The geographical locations of raingauges which give the best and worst hydrological modelling performance are identified, which shows that there is a strong dependence on the local geographical and climatic patterns

Efficacy of a dynamic collimator for overranging dose reduction in a second- and third-generation dual source CT scanner

Objectives: The purpose of this study was to assess the efficacy of the renewed dynamic collimator in a third-generation dual source CT (DSCT) scanner and to determine the improvements over the second-generation scanner. Methods: Collimator efficacy is defined as the percentage overranging dose in terms of dose–length product (DLP) that is blocked by the dynamic collimator relative to the total overranging dose in case of a static collimator. Efficacy was assessed at various pitch values and different scan lengths. The number of additional rotations due to overranging and effective scan length were calculated on the basis of reported scanning parameters. On the basis of these values, the efficacy of the collimator was calculated. Results: The second-generation scanner showed decreased performance of the dynamic collimator at increasing pitch. Efficacy dropped to 10% at the highest pitch. For the third-generation scanner the efficacy remained above 50% at higher pitch. Noise was for some pitch values slightly higher at the edge of the imaged volume, indicating a reduced scan range to reduce the overranging dose. Conclusions: The improved dynamic collimator in the third-generation scanner blocks the overranging dose for more than 50% and is more capable of shielding radiation dose, especially in high pitch scan modes. Key points: • Overranging dose is to a large extent blocked by the dynamic collimator• Efficacy is strongly improved within the third-generation DSCT scanner• Reducing th

Subpermafrost Groundwater Modelling in Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard:Paper presented at the 11th Northern Res. Basins Symposium/Workshop Prudhoe Bay to Fairbanks, Alaska, USA - Aug. 18-22, 1997

Svalbard is a high arctic archipelago where the permafrost thickness is 150-450 m and almost continuous in ice-free areas. The model work was carried out in Ny-Ålesund, where the subpermafrost aquifers are recharged by water from the bottom of the Vestre Lovénbreen glacier. One main discharge spring is found at the entrance of an old coal mine. The computer code SUTRA has been used to simulate two-dimensional fluid movement and energy transport in the ground under steady state conditions. For the simulation, a cross section with unit thickness parallel to groundwater flow has been chosen. With the resulting output of SUTRA, contour maps of the pressure, hydraulic head, temperature and velocity have been made. Residence times for different situations have been determined to be15 years as a minimum. In general there is a good agreement between the physical reality and the simulation results.</jats:p

Overnight affective dynamics and sleep characteristics as predictors of depression and its development

INTRODUCTION: Greater affective inertia during the day (higher carry-over effects of prior affect to the current moment) is associated with depression and its development. However, the role of overnight affective inertia (from evening to morning) in depression, and the role of sleep therein, has been scarcely studied. OBJECTIVES: We examined i) the difference in overnight inertia for positive (PA) and negative affect (NA) between individuals with past depression, current depression, and no depression; ii) how sleep duration and quality influence overnight affective inertia in these groups, and iii) whether overnight affective inertia predicts depression development. METHODS: We used data of 579 women from the East-Flanders Prospective Twin Survey. First, individuals with past (n=82), current (n=26), and no depression (n=471) at baseline were examined, and then individuals who did (n=58) and did not (n=319) develop depression at 12-months follow-up. Affect was assessed 10 times a day for 5 days. Sleep was assessed with sleep diaries. Affective inertia was operationalized as the influence of affect(t-1) on affect(t). Linear mixed-effect models were used to test the hypotheses. RESULTS: Overnight affective inertia was not associated with depression, neither was it differently associated with sleep characteristics in the depression groups. However, sleep characteristics were more negatively associated with morning NA in both depression groups compared to the non-depressed group. Overnight affective inertia did not predict the development of depression at follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Depression and sleep characteristics might be more related to mean affect levels rather than to more complex emotion dynamics measures. Replication of these findings with longer time-series is needed

Class II Division 1 malocclusion treatment with extraction of maxillary first molars:Evaluation of treatment and post-treatment changes by the PAR Index

OBJECTIVE To investigate occlusal result and post-treatment changes after orthodontic extraction of maxillary first permanent molars in patients with a Class II division 1 malocclusion. SETTING AND SAMPLE Retrospective longitudinal study in a private practice, with outcome evaluation by an independent academic hospital. Ninety-six patients (53 males, 43 females) consecutively treated by one orthodontist with maxillary first permanent molar extraction were studied, divided into three facial types, based on pre-treatment cephalometric values: hypodivergent (n = 18), normodivergent (n = 21) and hyperdivergent (n = 57). METHODS Occlusal outcome was scored on dental casts at T1 (pre-treatment), T2 (post-treatment) and T3 (mean follow-up 2.5 ± 0.9 years) using the weighted Peer Assessment Rating (PAR) Index. The paired sample t test and one-way ANOVA followed by Tukey's post hoc test were used for statistical analysis. RESULTS PAR was reduced by 95.7% and 89.9% at T2 and T3, respectively, compared with the start of treatment. The largest post-treatment changes were found for overjet and buccal occlusion. Linear regression analysis did not reveal a clear effect (R-Square 0.074) of age, sex, PAR score at T1, incremental PAR score T2-T1, overjet and overbite at T1, and facial type on the changes after treatment (incremental PAR score T3-T2). CONCLUSIONS The occlusal outcome achieved after Class II division 1 treatment with maxillary first permanent molar extractions was maintained to a large extent over a mean post-treatment follow-up of 2.5 years. Limited changes after treatment were found, for which no risk factors could be discerned