Experimental Watersheds at Coshocton, Ohio, USA: Experiences and Establishing New Experimental Watersheds

The North Appalachian Experimental Watershed (NAEW) in Ohio was established in 1935 to improve economical and physical sustainability in agriculture. The objectives were to test management practices on small watersheds, investigate scaling of runoff and erosion to larger areas, and research ways to extrapolate the results to ungauged areas. The facility was equipped with a permanent infrastructure consisting of runoff stations and rain gauges for watersheds ranging in size from 0.26 to 1854 ha, and 11 large (0.008 ha) monolith lysimeters to investigate small-scale water balances, all in an area greater than 2000 ha. After about 1970, the NAEW was reduced in size to 425 ha consisting of mostly small watersheds (“test beds”) ranging in size from 0.26 to 3.07 ha. The NAEW was in operation for approximately 81 years generating a long record of runoff and other data for various watersheds, and closed in 2015. A wide variety of experiments were conducted on the NAEW with many high-impact accomplishments and addressing emerging issues that founders never envisioned. Nearly, 500 publications came from investigations during the history of the facility, and insights for establishing new experimental watersheds are presented covering site selection, funding, site specificity, extrapolation of results, generation of runoff in different physiographic regions, collaboration, off-site investigations, and instrumentation. The research on water quality was added to the research objectives in the 1970s, including nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus) and pesticides in surface runoff and subsurface flow

Crossover Patient Outcomes for Targeted Lung Denervation in Moderate to Severe Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease:AIRFLOW-2

BACKGROUND: Targeted Lung Denervation (TLD) is a potential new therapy for COPD. Radiofrequency energy is bronchoscopically delivered to the airways to disrupt pulmonary parasympathetic nerves, to reduce bronchoconstriction, mucus hypersecretion, and bronchial hyperreactivity. OBJECTIVES: This work assesses the effect of TLD on COPD exacerbations (AECOPD) in crossover subjects in the AIRFLOW-2 trial. METHOD: The AIRFLOW-2 trial is a multicentre, randomized, double-blind, sham-controlled crossover trial of TLD in COPD. Patients with symptomatic COPD on optimal medical therapy with an FEV1 of 30-60% predicted received either TLD or sham bronchoscopy in a 1:1 randomization. Those in the sham arm had the opportunity to cross into the treatment arm after 12 months. The primary end point was rate of respiratory adverse events. Secondary end points included adverse events, changes in lung function and health-related quality of life and symptom scores. RESULTS: Twenty patients were treated with TLD in the crossover phase and were subsequently followed up for 12 months (50% female, mean age 64.1 ± 6.9 years). After TLD, there was a trend towards a reduction in time to first AECOPD (hazard ratio 0.65, p = 0.28, not statistically significant) in comparison to sham follow-up period. There was also a reduction in time to first severe AECOPD in the crossover period (hazard ratio 0.38, p = 0.227, not statistically significant). Symptom scores and lung function showed stability. CONCLUSIONS: AIRFLOW-2 crossover data support that of the randomization phase, showing trends towards reduction in COPD exacerbations with TLD

Violent Recidivism: A Long-Time Follow-Up Study of Mentally Disordered Offenders

Background: In this prospective study, mentally disordered perpetrators of severe violent and/or sexual crimes were followed through official registers for 59 (range 8 to 73) months. The relapse rate in criminality was assessed, compared between offenders sentenced to prison versus forensic psychiatric care, and the predictive ability of various risk factors (criminological, clinical, and of structured assessment instruments) was investigated. Method: One hundred perpetrators were consecutively assessed between 1998 and 2001 by a clinical battery of established instruments covering DSM-IV diagnoses, psychosocial background factors, and structured assessment instruments (HCR-20, PCL-R, and life-time aggression (LHA)). Follow-up data was collected from official registers for: (i) recidivistic crimes, (ii) crimes during ongoing sanction. Results: Twenty subjects relapsed in violent criminality during ongoing sanctions (n = 6) or after discharge/parole (n = 14). Individuals in forensic psychiatric care spent significantly more time at liberty after discharge compared to those in prison, but showed significantly fewer relapses. Criminological (age at first conviction), and clinical (conduct disorder and substance abuse/dependence) risk factors, as well as scores on structured assessment instruments, were moderately associated with violent recidivism. Logistic regression analyses showed that the predictive ability of criminological risk factors versus clinical risk factors combined with scores from assessment instruments was comparable, with each set of variables managing to correctly classify about 80% of all individuals, but the only predictors that remained significant in multiple models were criminological (age at first conviction, and a history of substance abuse among primary relatives). Conclusions: Only one in five relapsed into serious criminality, with significantly more relapses among subjects sentenced to prison as compared to forensic psychiatric care. Criminological risk factors tended to be the best predictors of violent relapses, while few synergies were seen when the risk factors were combined. Overall, the predictive validity of common risk factors for violent criminality was rather weak

Understanding What Works: Lessons for the Nordic Countries?

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ESTIMATION OF PEAK RUNOFF RATES FROM SMALL AGRICULTURAL WATERSHEDS

Estimates of peak runoff rates from small agricultural watersheds are necessary for many engineering design applications. Precipitation and runoff data are analyzed in order to develop a method of estimating peak runoff rates. Precipitation data separation techniques and associated spatial and temporal variability are investigated to obtain the critical duration of dry periods between storm events. The effects of critical duration on design storm patterns are also investigated. A comparison of four design storm patterns is made in order to select one for use in a methodology to estimate peak flows. The effects of season of year on peak runoff rate and rainfall characteristics are studied. A methodology to estimate peak runoff rates is then developed. The precipitation analyses show a large difference in critical duration values due to precipitation series separation techniques, but little effect due to critical duration, on Huff curves. Huff curves are shown to be most flexible design storm hyetographs. The growing season is shown to be the season of maximum peak flows. The methodology developed to estimate peak flows uses the CREAMS model (Chemicals, Runoff, and Erosion from Agricultural Management Systems), a weather generator, Huff curves, and random storm depths and durations to find the optimal antecedent soil moisture level at which the probability distribution of measured and simulated peak flows are statistically the same. The CREAMS model is also used to find the probability of occurrence of the optimal antecedent soil moisture. Accurate estimates of peak flow rates and associated return periods can be made with the methodology. Method of storm series separation technique and sampling interval of precipitation data do not affect peak flow return periods, allowing the use of hourly data for watersheds with short times of concentration

The psychology of criminal conduct

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Tracking and managing high risk offenders: A Canadian initiative

The purpose of the current study was to evaluate the utility of a national initiative (the National Flagging System [NFS]) in correctly identifying high risk violent and sexual offenders and facilitating the appropriate application of preventative detention in Canada. A sample of 516 flagged offenders (FOs) was compared with 58 dangerous offenders (DOs) and 129 long-term offenders (LTOs) on demographic variables and risk assessment measures. Recidivism was also examined for a sample of FOs and LTOs. Results found many similarities among the 3 groups but FOs, on average, scored lower on structured risk assessment measures. Despite this latter finding, a significant proportion of FOs were rated as high or very high risk to reoffend according to the risk categories of the risk assessment instruments used in this study and based on percentile rankings. Violent (including sexual) reconviction rates for FOs were also significantly higher when compared to both LTOs and a sample of federal offenders. The base rate for preventative detention designations among FOs was substantially higher than the expected base rate among violent and sexual recidivists, thereby confirming the utility of the NFS. Although the NFS identifies high risk offenders, NFS coordinators would benefit from utilizing structured risk assessments when making flagging decisions