NERC Briefing note: integrating NERC(BGS) subsurface environmental research and data to city development processes and policy: key learning outcomes

This report summarises the midpoint findings of a three year NERC Knowledge Exchange (KE) Fellowship examining how NERC(BGS) subsurface environmental data could have higher impact to city development processes, planning and policy. The NERC Fellowship is the first to see a NERC(BGS) researcher to be embedded within local government (Glasgow City Council) over a significant time period (three years) working with multiple service teams and levels of local government (LG), from senior management, to development policy teams, to geotechnical, engineering and project design groups within Development and Regeneration and Land and Environmental services. At present, there is a key gap in the use of NERC(BGS) research within early strategic decisions in LG development planning and policy – Figure (i). This is despite the relevance of the research and data to these decisions, the significant historical investment by NERC(BGS) in LG data acquisition, and the availability of regional datasets of subsurface ground conditions. Strategic knowledge of likely ground conditions and resource opportunities is essential for LG to inform Local Development Plan (LDP) policies, to be able to ‘screen’ and utilise land assets to greatest effect, to stimulate most appropriate city development and investment, and to deliver required housing and infrastructure. Key upfront LDP decisions are made largely in the absence of any strategic subsurface knowledge or screening data of subsurface ground conditions, (e.g. likely construction and remediation costs) with the exception of mining, or subsurface opportunities (e.g. building space, geothermal energy). This is in stark contrast to the high level of utilisation of NERC(BGS) data by the insurance industry to inform decisions of risk and land value/costs, and by both LG and engineering and geotechnical consultancies in the later-stages of the development process to inform project-scale decisions of design and construction – Figure (i). There are, therefore, key disconnects in the current use and impact of NERC(BGS) data within early stages of city development planning and policy. There is now a significant opportunity to bridge the knowledge gaps within both NERC(BGS) and LG, and to understand: what are the most relevant knowledge of subsurface conditions and opportunities for LG development planning and policy; and, what is the most accessible and relevant mechanism for delivery of the optimal knowledg

Developing a preliminary recharge model of the Nile Basin to help interpret GRACE data

GRACE data provides a new and exciting opportunity to gain a direct and independent measure of water mass variation on a regional scale, but the data must be combined with hydrological modelling to indicate in which part of the water cycle the mass change has occurred. Processing GRACE data through a series of spectral filters indicates a seasonal variation to gravity mass (±0.005 mGal) thought to relate to the downstream movement of water in the catchment, and delayed storage from groundwater, following the wet season in the upper catchment. To help interpret these data a groundwater recharge model was developed for the Nile Catchment using the model ZOODRM (a distributed modelling code for calculating spatial and temporal variations in groundwater recharge). ZOODRM was an appropriate model to use for this work, due to the lower data demands of the model, relative to other groundwater models, the ability of the model to use entirely remotely-sensed input data, and the added functionality of runoff routing. Rainfall (NOAA data) and ET data were sourced from the FEWS NET African Data Dissemination Service. Geological data was sourced from the digital geology map of the world, landuse data from the USGS and the DEM data from ESRI. Initial model results indicate groundwater recharge across the basin of 0-4mma-1, with obvious considerable spatial variability. The results indicate the importance of groundwater in storing rainfall, and releasing it slowly throughout the year in different parts of the catchment. Only by modelling this process can GRACE data be reliably interpreted hydrologically. Despite only a qualitative interpretation of the GRACE data having been achieved within this preliminary study, the work has indicated that the ZOODRM model can be used with entirely remotely-sensed data, and that sufficient data exists for the Nile Basin to construct a plausible recharge model. Future work is now required to properly calibrate the model to enable closer comparison of the Nile GRACE data

A review : current utilisation of environmental information to inform Local Development Plan preparation and delivery

The use of environmental research and information to inform planning policy is essential for governments to be able to develop, and deliver, new spatial approaches to delivering key priorities for our future places: to be able deliver 50,000 homes by 2021 alongside better places[1]; to develop the infrastructure approaches required to reduce carbon emissions by 90 per cent by 2050[2], whilst at the same time developing high quality places and vibrant economies; and to increase the resilience of Scotland’s communities to environmental change [3,4,5]. Local Development Plans are the key spatial policies which will help deliver Scotland’s Energy strategy [3], Climate Change Plan [4], Economic Strategy and National Programme [5] over the next 10 years. Ensuring existing available evidence is utilised effectively to inform Scotland’s LDPs is, therefore, vitally important to the realisation of Scotland’s future people and places. However, there is increasing realisation from all parties that existing pieces of key national environmental evidence which could help inform early understanding of land supply attributes, development costs, risk and opportunities, are not utilised effectively, if at all, within the preparation of many LDPs [6] . This is despite information having being developed specifically to help inform these processes (e.g. BGS groundwater resource and vulnerability maps [7]), and significant past investment by individual organisations, the Rural Affairs, Food and Environment (RAFE) digital group, and Scottish Government to make information freely available from centralised web services [8,9]. The Planning (Scotland) Bill (2017) [10] and Scottish Governments position paper ‘People, Places, and Planning’, call that we find new ways to collaborate in planning to consolidate and improve evidence processes, and recognises the importance of earlier use of evidence in Local Development Plans (LDPs) to realise new multi-faceted approaches for the delivery of our future places [11]. The review was part of an in-depth three year Knowledge Exchange (KE) Fellowship led by BGS in Scotland focused on developing better understanding across key organisations as to how environmental information can be used more effectively to inform early spatial planning approaches and policies in LDP preparation. For example, what environmental information, and analytical pathways, are most appropriate and pertinent to informing earlier understanding of Housing Land Supply (HLS) attributes – this being seen as a key evidence gap required to inform LDP site allocations and knowledge of risks and opportunities, in advance of call for sites, and detailed site investigation information [12-15]

Unlocking the subsurface for new spatial planning : developing standardised digital data for the UK on the subsurface

Uncertainty in ground conditions is the biggest factor to UK construction delays; it inhibits local authorities being able to de-risk brownfield redevelopment; and the lack of awareness of available data on the subsurface means it is largely overlooked within local development planning. Greater re-use of the large amount of high quality ground investigation data which exists in the UK, would reduce this uncertainty. The BGS and the National Geoscience Data Centre (NGDC) are working to roll-out a new UK portal of standardised digital surface data, which will collate and provide access to validated AGS digital data in the UK. Desk studies, project design, ground investigations and construction can all be based on wider data and knowledge of the subsurface – lowering project costs and financial risk, with increased certainty in ground conditions, and enabling more effective design. This presentation will detail the work being undertaken, engaging with Local Authorities to assess how SI data can be used more effectively in planning processes – so that there is more effective zoning of land for different types of development, and ensuring there is greater realisation of available subsurface resources and conditions earlier in planning processes. As part of this, the work will be assisting Glasgow City Council to write the UK’s first Subsurface Supplementary Planning guidance over the next 3 years

UPGRO Hidden Crisis Research consortium: unravelling past failures for future success in rural water supply: initial project approach for assessing rural water supply functionality and levels of performance

The new Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) set a much stronger focus on sustainability and performance of water services, and have highly ambitious goals to achieve universal access to safe and reliable water for all by 2030 (UN 2013 ). Poor functionality of water points threatens to undermine progress, and a lack of knowledge for the reasons behind this make it difficult to recommend improvements and take corrective action. As a first step it is necessary to be able to reliably monitor current rates of functionality and to have a clear benchmark as to what constitutes a functional water point. Currently, there is no single accepted definition for functionality, although organisations are working towards this as a means of tracking progress towards the SDGs. This report sets out the initial work by the Hidden Crisis project to develop a framework approach to assess functionality in terms of different levels of performance, and a set of standard indicators which can be used to assess functionality. The report presents the results of a literature review examining the following questions: (1) what are the current approaches to defining functionality of hand-pump boreholes; and (2) what are the robust standards by which the functionality of a HPB, or population of HPB’s, can be assessed. From analyses of the literature we have developed preliminary guidelines and applied these to develop a preliminary framework

The ASK Network: developing a virtuous cycle of subsurface data and knowledge exchange

Knowledge of the subsurface is essential in delivering successful construction and regeneration projects. Inadequate understanding of subsurface ground conditions can constrain effective development of urban areas and is a key factor in project delay and overspending. Improving this situation demands much better use, and re-use, of subsurface data and knowledge. The establishment of ASK subsurface data and knowledge exchange network has led to substantial improvements in how urban subsurface data is reported and exchanged between the public and private sectors. Implementation of the GSPEC standardised digital data reporting format has improved the integrity and accessibility of data. ASK and GSPEC are enabling the expansion and exchange of high quality systematic subsurface datasets, improving development of robust 3D ground models which can be used to promote more cost effective and better informed ground engineering investigations, and monitoring and regulation of resources in the urban environment. The work underway in Glasgow is acting as a standard for change, both within the UK and Europe

Seasonal and decadal groundwater changes in African sedimentary aquifers estimated using GRACE products and LSMs

Increased groundwater abstraction is important to the economic development of Africa and to achieving many of the Sustainable Development Goals. However, there is little information on long-term or seasonal groundwater trends due to a lack of in situ monitoring. Here we used GRACE data from three products CSR, JPL-MCN and GRGS to examine Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) changes in 12 African sedimentary aquifers, to examine relationships between TWS and rainfall from TRMM, and estimate Groundwater Storage (GWS) changes using four LSMs CLM2.0, VIC, MOSAIC and NOAH. We find that there are no substantial continuous longterm decreasing trends in groundwater storage from 2002 to 2016in any of the African basins, however, consistent rising groundwater trends amounting to ~1 km3/year and 1.5 km3/year are identified in the Iullemmeden and Senegal basins, respectively and longer term variations in ΔTWS in several basins associated with rainfall patterns. Discrete seasonal ΔTWS responses of ±1‒5 cm/year are indicated by GRACE for each of the basins, with the exception of the Congo, North Kalahari and Senegal basins which display larger seasonal ΔTWS equivalent to approx. ±11‒20 cm/year. The different seasonal responses in ΔTWS provide useful information about groundwater, including the identification of 5 to 9 month accumulation periods of rainfall in many semi-arid and arid basins as well as differences in ΔTWS responses between Sahelian and southern African aquifers to similar rainfall, likely reflecting differences in landcover. Seasonal ΔGWS estimated by combining GRACE ΔTWS with LSM outputs compare inconsistently to available in situ measurements of groundwater recharge from different basins, highlighting the need to further develop the representation of recharge process in LSMs and the need for more in situ observations from piezometry

A hidden crisis: strengthening the evidence base on the sustainability of rural groundwater supplies: results from a pilot study in Uganda

Extending and sustaining access to rural water supplies remains central to improving the health and livelihoods of poor people, particularly women, in Africa, where 400 million rural inhabitants have no form of utility provided water, and universal access to water hinges on accelerated development of groundwater (UN 2013). The ‘future proofing’ of groundwater investments is therefore vital, especially in the context of global and local trends including demographic shifts, environmental impacts of human activity and climate change (Taylor et al. 2013). The emphasis, in recent years, on accelerating access to new infrastructure has obscured a hidden crisis of failure. More than 30% of sources are non‐functional within a few years of construction (Rietveld et al. 2009, RWSN 2009, Lockwood et al. 2011) and a greater number are seasonal (for example 50% in Sierra Leone) (MoEWR 2012). The accumulated costs to governments, donors, and, above all, rural people, are enormous. The original benefits generated by the new infrastructure – improved health, nutrition, time savings, education, particularly for the poorest – are lost if improved services cannot be sustained. The cumulative effect of rural water supply failure in Africa over the past 20 years has been estimated by the World Bank to represent a lost investment in excess of $1.2 billion. Critically, there is limited data or analysis on why sources are non‐functional and therefore little opportunity to learn from past mistakes. This report provides a summary of the work undertaken by the UK‐funded UPGro research programme ('Unlocking the Potential for Groundwater for the Poor') for sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) and the Department for International Development (DfID). The Catalyst Grant project ‘A Hidden Crisis’ was aimed at developing a methodology and toolbox to investigate the causes of failure in groundwater‐based water services in SSA, which could form the foundation for more substantial and larger‐scale research in the future to develop a statistically significant evidence base to examine water point functionality and the underlying causes of failure across a range of physical, social, institutional and governance environments in SSA. To test the toolbox and methodology developed, a pilot study was conducted in northeast Uganda Overall, the approach and methods developed in the catalyst project have been shown to make a significant step towards developing a replicable and robust methodology which can be used to generate a systematic evidence base for supply failure. The work has gone a significant way to encapsulating the complexity of the interlinked aspects of the problem, balancing the natural science and engineering (“technical”) aspects of the research with those concerning the ability of communities to manage and maintain their water points (the “social” aspects). The multiplicity of interlinked causes of water point failure was explicitly acknowledged and taken into account through the use of multi‐disciplinary field and analytical methods within the toolbox and in selection of the research team. The multi‐disciplinary methods of investigation used were highly practical and appropriate to the information sought, and based on detailed observational science

Assessing threats to shallow groundwater quality from soil pollutants in Glasgow, UK: development of a new screening tool

A new GIS-based screening tool to assess threats to shallow groundwater quality has been trialled in Glasgow, UK. The GRoundwater And Soil Pollutants (GRASP) tool is based on a British Standard method for assessing the threat from potential leaching of metal pollutants in unsaturated soil/superficial materials to shallow groundwater, using data on soil and Quaternary deposit properties, climate and depth to groundwater. GRASP breaks new ground by also incorporating a new Glasgow-wide soil chemistry dataset. GRASP considers eight metals, including chromium, lead and nickel at 1622 soil sample locations. The final output is a map to aid urban management, which highlights areas where shallow groundwater quality may be at risk from current and future surface pollutants. The tool indicated that 13% of soil sample sites in Glasgow present a very high potential threat to groundwater quality, due largely to shallow groundwater depths and high soil metal concentrations. Initial attempts to validate GRASP revealed partial spatial coincidence between the GRASP threat ranks (low, moderate, high and very high) and groundwater chemistry, with statistical correlation between areas of high soil and groundwater metal concentrations for both Cr and Cu (r2>0.152; P<0.05). Validation was hampered by a lack of, and inconsistency in, existing groundwater chemistry data. To address this, standardised subsurface data collection networks have been trialled recently in Glasgow. It is recommended that, once available, new groundwater depth and chemistry information from these networks is used to validate the GRASP model further