HELIOS-Retrieval: An Open-source, Nested Sampling Atmospheric Retrieval Code, Application to the HR 8799 Exoplanets and Inferred Constraints for Planet Formation

We present an open-source retrieval code named HELIOS-Retrieval (hereafter HELIOS-R), designed to obtain chemical abundances and temperature-pressure profiles from inverting the measured spectra of exoplanetary atmospheres. In the current implementation, we use an exact solution of the radiative transfer equation, in the pure absorption limit, in our forward model, which allows us to analytically integrate over all of the outgoing rays (instead of performing Gaussian quadrature). Two chemistry models are considered: unconstrained chemistry (where the mixing ratios are treated as free parameters) and equilibrium chemistry (enforced via analytical formulae, where only the elemental abundances are free parameters). The nested sampling algorithm allows us to formally implement Occam's Razor based on a comparison of the Bayesian evidence between models. We perform a retrieval analysis on the measured spectra of the HR 8799b, c, d and e directly imaged exoplanets. Chemical equilibrium is disfavored by the Bayesian evidence for HR 8799b, c and d. We find supersolar C/O, C/H and O/H values for the outer HR 8799b and c exoplanets, while the inner HR 8799d and e exoplanets have substellar C/O, substellar C/H and superstellar O/H values. If these retrieved properties are representative of the bulk compositions of the exoplanets, then they are inconsistent with formation via gravitational instability (without late-time accretion) and consistent with a core accretion scenario in which late-time accretion of ices occurred differently for the inner and outer exoplanets. For HR 8799e, we find that spectroscopy in the K band is crucial for constraining C/O and C/H. HELIOS-R is publicly available as part of the Exoclimes Simulation Platform (ESP; www.exoclime.org).Comment: 27 pages, 21 figures, 3 tables, published in A

External validation of the Hospital Frailty Risk Score in France

BACKGROUND: The Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS) has made it possible internationally to identify subgroups of patients with characteristics of frailty from routinely collected hospital data. OBJECTIVE: To externally validate the HFRS in France. DESIGN: A retrospective analysis of the French medical information database. SETTING: 743 hospitals in Metropolitan France. SUBJECTS: All patients aged 75 years or older hospitalised as an emergency in 2017 (n = 1,042,234). METHODS: The HFRS was calculated for each patient based on the index stay and hospitalisations over the preceding 2 years. Main outcome measures were 30-day in-patient mortality, length of stay (LOS) >10 days and 30-day readmissions. Mixed logistic regression models were used to investigate the association between outcomes and HFRS score. RESULTS: Patients with high HFRS risk were associated with increased risk of mortality and prolonged LOS (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.38 [1.35-1.42] and 3.27 [3.22-3.32], c-statistics = 0.676 and 0.684, respectively), while it appeared less predictive of readmissions (aOR = 1.00 [0.98-1.02], c-statistic = 0.600). Model calibration was excellent. Restricting the score to data prior to index admission reduced discrimination of HFRS substantially. CONCLUSIONS: HFRS can be used in France to determine risks of 30-day in-patient mortality and prolonged LOS, but not 30-day readmissions. Trial registration: Reference ID on clinicaltrials.gov: ID: NCT03905629

A Search for Variability in Exoplanet Analogues and Low-Gravity Brown Dwarfs

We report the results of a $J$-band survey for photometric variability in a sample of young, low-gravity objects using the New Technology Telescope (NTT) and the United Kingdom InfraRed Telescope (UKIRT). Surface gravity is a key parameter in the atmospheric properties of brown dwarfs and this is the first large survey that aims to test the gravity dependence of variability properties. We do a full analysis of the spectral signatures of youth and assess the group membership probability of each target using membership tools from the literature. This results in a 30 object sample of young low-gravity brown dwarfs. Since we are lacking in objects with spectral types later than L9, we focus our statistical analysis on the L0-L8.5 objects. We find that the variability occurrence rate of L0-L8.5 low-gravity brown dwarfs in this survey is $30^{+16}_{-8}\%$. We reanalyse the results of Radigan 2014 and find that the field dwarfs with spectral types L0-L8.5 have a variability occurrence rate of $11^{+13}_{-4}\%$. We determine a probability of $98\%$ that the samples are drawn from different distributions. This is the first quantitative indication that the low-gravity objects are more likely to be variable than the field dwarf population. Furthermore, we present follow-up $J_S$ and $K_S$ observations of the young, planetary-mass variable object PSO 318.5-22 over three consecutive nights. We find no evidence of phase shifts between the $J_S$ and $K_S$ bands and find higher $J_S$ amplitudes. We use the $J_S$ lightcurves to measure a rotational period of $8.45\pm0.05~$hr for PSO 318.5-22.Comment: accepted for publication in MNRA

Very high-energy gamma-ray follow-up program using neutrino triggers from IceCube

We describe and report the status of a neutrino-triggered program in IceCube that generates real-time alerts for gamma-ray follow-up observations by atmospheric-Cherenkov telescopes (MAGIC and VERITAS). While IceCube is capable of monitoring the whole sky continuously, high-energy gamma-ray telescopes have restricted fields of view and in general are unlikely to be observing a potential neutrino-flaring source at the time such neutrinos are recorded. The use of neutrino-triggered alerts thus aims at increasing the availability of simultaneous multi-messenger data during potential neutrino flaring activity, which can increase the discovery potential and constrain the phenomenological interpretation of the high-energy emission of selected source classes (e. g. blazars). The requirements of a fast and stable online analysis of potential neutrino signals and its operation are presented, along with first results of the program operating between 14 March 2012 and 31 December 2015

Search for VHE gamma-ray emission from Geminga pulsar and nebula with the MAGIC telescopes

The Geminga pulsar, one of the brighest gamma-ray sources, is a promising candidate for emission of very-high-energy (VHE > 100 GeV) pulsed gamma rays. Also, detection of a large nebula have been claimed by water Cherenkov instruments. We performed deep observations of Geminga with the MAGIC telescopes, yielding 63 hours of good-quality data, and searched for emission from the pulsar and pulsar wind nebula. We did not find any significant detection, and derived 95% confidence level upper limits. The resulting upper limits of 5.3 × 10^(−13) TeV cm^(−2)s^(−1) for the Geminga pulsar and 3.5 × 10^(−12) TeV cm^(−2)s^(−1) for the surrounding nebula at 50 GeV are the most constraining ones obtained so far at VHE. To complement the VHE observations, we also analyzed 5 years of Fermi-LAT data from Geminga, finding that the sub-exponential cut-off is preferred over the exponential cut-off that has been typically used in the literature. We also find that, above 10 GeV, the gamma-ray spectra from Geminga can be described with a power law with index softer than 5. The extrapolation of the power-law Fermi-LAT pulsed spectra to VHE goes well below the MAGIC upper limits, indicating that the detection of pulsed emission from Geminga with the current generation of Cherenkov telescopes is very difficult

Probing the very high energy gamma-ray spectral curvature in the blazar PG 1553+113 with the MAGIC telescopes

PG 1553+113 is a very-high-energy (VHE, E > 100 GeV) γ-ray emitter classified as a BL Lac object. Its redshift is constrained by intergalactic absorption lines in the range 0.4 < z < 0.58. The MAGIC telescopes have monitored the source’s activity since 2005. In early 2012, PG 1553+113 was found in a high-state, and later, in April of the same year, the source reached its highest VHE flux state detected so far. Simultaneous observations carried out in X-rays during 2012 April show similar flaring behaviour. In contrast, the γ-ray flux at E < 100 GeV observed by Fermi-LAT is compatible with steady emission. In this paper, a detailed study of the flaring state is presented. The VHE spectrum shows clear curvature, being well fitted either by a power law with an exponential cut-off or by a log-parabola. A simple power-law fit hypothesis for the observed shape of the PG 1553+113 VHE γ-ray spectrum is rejected with a high significance (fit probability P=2.6 ×10−6). The observed curvature is compatible with the extragalactic background light (EBL) imprint predicted by current generation EBL models assuming a redshift z ∼ 0.4. New constraints on the redshift are derived from the VHE spectrum. These constraints are compatible with previous limits and suggest that the source is most likely located around the optical lower limit, z = 0.4, based on the detection of Lyα absorption. Finally, we find that the synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) model gives a satisfactory description of the observed multi-wavelength spectral energy distribution during the flare

Optimized dark matter searches in deep observations of Segue 1 with MAGIC

We present the results of stereoscopic observations of the satellite galaxy Segue 1 with the MAGIC Telescopes, carried out between 2011 and 2013. With almost 160 hours of good-quality data, this is the deepest observational campaign on any dwarf galaxy performed so far in the very high energy range of the electromagnetic spectrum. We search this large data sample for signals of dark matter particles in the mass range between 100 GeV and 20 TeV. For this we use the full likelihood analysis method, which provides optimal sensitivity to characteristic gamma-ray spectral features, like those expected from dark matter annihilation or decay. In particular, we focus our search on gamma-rays produced from different final state Standard Model particles, annihilation with internal bremsstrahlung, monochromatic lines and box-shaped signals. Our results represent the most stringent constraints to the annihilation cross-section or decay lifetime obtained from observations of satellite galaxies, for masses above few hundred GeV. In particular, our strongest limit (95% confidence level) corresponds to a similar to 500 GeV dark matter particle annihilating into tau(+)tau(-), and is of order similar or equal to 1.2x10(-24) cm(3) s(-1) - a factor similar to 40 above the similar or equal to thermal value

A cut-off in the TeV gamma-ray spectrum of the SNR Cassiopeia A

It is widely believed that the bulk of the Galactic cosmic rays are accelerated in supernova remnants (SNRs). However, no observational evidence of the presence of particles of PeV energies in SNRs has yet been found. The young historical SNR Cassiopeia A (Cas A) appears as one of the best candidates to study acceleration processes. Between December 2014 and October 2016 we observed Cas A with the MAGIC telescopes, accumulating 158 hours of good-quality data. We derived the spectrum of the source from 100 GeV to 10 TeV. We also analysed ∼8 years of F ermiLAT to obtain the spectral shape between 60 MeV and 500 GeV. The spectra measured by the LAT and MAGIC telescopes are compatible within the errors and show a clear turn off (4.6 σ) at the highest energies, which can be described with an exponential cut-off at Ec = 3.5(₋₁‚₀⁺¹’⁶ )_(stat) (⁺⁰’⁸ ₋‚₀₉)_(sys) TeV. The gamma-ray emission from 60 MeV to 10 TeV can be attributed to a population of high-energy protons with spectral index ∼2.2 and energy cut-off at ∼10 TeV. This result indicates that Cas A is not contributing to the high energy (∼PeV) cosmic-ray sea in a significant manner at the present moment. A one-zone leptonic model fails to reproduce by itself the multiwavelength spectral energy distribution. Besides, if a non-negligible fraction of the flux seen by MAGIC is produced by leptons, the radiation should be emitted in a region with a low magnetic field (B<≈100µG) like in the reverse shock