Nonstationary Teleconnection Between the Pacific Ocean and Arctic Sea Ice

Over the last 40 years observations show a teleconnection between summertime Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures and September Arctic sea ice extent. However, the short satellite observation record has made it difficult to further examine this relationship. Here, we use 30 fully coupled general circulation models (GCMs) participating in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to assess the ability of GCMs to simulate this teleconnection and analyze its stationarity over longer timescales. GCMs can temporarily simulate the teleconnection in continuous 40‐year segments but not over longer, centennial timescales. Each GCM exhibits considerable teleconnection variability on multidecadal timescales. Further analysis shows that the teleconnection depends on an equally nonstationary atmospheric bridge from the subequatorial Pacific Ocean to the upper Arctic troposphere. These findings indicate that the modulation of Arctic sea ice loss by subequatorial Pacific Ocean variability is not fixed in time, undermining the assumption of teleconnection stationarity as defined by the satellite record

Nonstationary Teleconnection Between the Pacific Ocean and Arctic Sea Ice

Over the last 40 years observations show a teleconnection between summertime Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures and September Arctic sea ice extent. However, the short satellite observation record has made it difficult to further examine this relationship. Here, we use 30 fully coupled general circulation models (GCMs) participating in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to assess the ability of GCMs to simulate this teleconnection and analyze its stationarity over longer timescales. GCMs can temporarily simulate the teleconnection in continuous 40‐year segments but not over longer, centennial timescales. Each GCM exhibits considerable teleconnection variability on multidecadal timescales. Further analysis shows that the teleconnection depends on an equally nonstationary atmospheric bridge from the subequatorial Pacific Ocean to the upper Arctic troposphere. These findings indicate that the modulation of Arctic sea ice loss by subequatorial Pacific Ocean variability is not fixed in time, undermining the assumption of teleconnection stationarity as defined by the satellite record

A moving point approach to model shallow ice sheets: a study case with radially-symmetrical ice sheets

Predicting the evolution of ice sheets requires numerical models able to accurately track the migration of ice sheet continental margins or grounding lines. We introduce a physically based moving point approach for the flow of ice sheets based on the conservation of local masses. This allows the ice sheet margins to be tracked explicitly and the waiting time behaviours to be modelled efficiently. A finite difference moving point scheme is derived and applied in a simplified context (continental radially-symmetrical shallow ice approximation). The scheme, which is inexpensive, is validated by comparing the results with moving-margin exact solutions and steady states. In both cases the scheme is able to track the position of the ice sheet margin with high precision

On the geometry of closed G2-structure

We give an answer to a question posed recently by R.Bryant, namely we show that a compact 7-dimensional manifold equipped with a G2-structure with closed fundamental form is Einstein if and only if the Riemannian holonomy of the induced metric is contained in G2. This could be considered to be a G2 analogue of the Goldberg conjecture in almost Kahler geometry. The result was generalized by R.L.Bryant to closed G2-structures with too tightly pinched Ricci tensor. We extend it in another direction proving that a compact G2-manifold with closed fundamental form and divergence-free Weyl tensor is a G2-manifold with parallel fundamental form. We introduce a second symmetric Ricci-type tensor and show that Einstein conditions applied to the two Ricci tensors on a closed G2-structure again imply that the induced metric has holonomy group contained in G2.Comment: 14 pages, the Einstein condition in the assumptions of the Main theorem is generalized to the assumption that the Weyl tensor is divergence-free, clarity improved, typos correcte

Self-Duality in D <= 8-dimensional Euclidean Gravity

In the context of D-dimensional Euclidean gravity, we define the natural generalisation to D-dimensions of the self-dual Yang-Mills equations, as duality conditions on the curvature 2-form of a Riemannian manifold. Solutions to these self-duality equations are provided by manifolds of SU(2), SU(3), G_2 and Spin(7) holonomy. The equations in eight dimensions are a master set for those in lower dimensions. By considering gauge fields propagating on these self-dual manifolds and embedding the spin connection in the gauge connection, solutions to the D-dimensional equations for self-dual Yang-Mills fields are found. We show that the Yang-Mills action on such manifolds is topologically bounded from below, with the bound saturated precisely when the Yang-Mills field is self-dual. These results have a natural interpretation in supersymmetric string theory.Comment: 9 pages, Latex, factors in eqn. (6) corrected, acknowledgement and reference added, typos fixe

Climate Change Impacts on Freshwater Wetland Hydrology and Vegetation Cover Cycling Along a Regional Aridity Gradient

Global mean temperature may increase up to 6°C by the end of this century and together with precipitation change may steepen regional aridity gradients. The hydrology, productivity, and ecosystem services from freshwater wetlands depend on their future water balance. We simulated the hydrology and vegetation dynamics of wetland complexes in the North American Prairie Pothole Region with the WETLANDSCAPE model. Simulations for 63 precipitation × temperature combinations spanning 6°C warming and −20% to +20% annual precipitation change at 19 locations along a mid-continental aridity gradient showed that aridity explained up to 99% of the variation in wetland stage and hydroperiod for all wetland permanence types, and in vegetation cycling for semipermanent wetlands. The magnitude and direction of hydrologic responses depended on whether climate changes increased or decreased water deficits. Warming to 6°C and 20% less precipitation increased wetland water deficits and more strongly decreased wetland stage and hydroperiod from historic levels at low aridity, especially in semipermanent wetlands, where peak vegetation cycling (Cover Cycle Index, CCI) also shifted to lower aridity. In contrast, 20% more precipitation decreased water deficits, increasing wetland stage and hydroperiod most strongly in shallow wetlands at high aridity, but filling semipermanent wetlands and reducing CCI at low aridity. All climate changes narrowed the range of aridity favorable to high productivity. Climate changes that reduce water deficits may help maintain wetlands at high aridity at the expense of those at low aridity, but with warming certain, increased deficits are more likely and will help maintain wetlands at lower aridity but exacerbate loss of wetlands at high aridity. Thus, there is likely not a universally applicable approach to mitigating climate change impacts on freshwater wetlands across regional aridity gradients. Conservation strategies need to account for aridity-specific effects of climate change on freshwater wetland ecosystems

Active Amplification of the Terrestrial Albedo to Mitigate Climate Change: An Exploratory Study

This study explores the potential to enhance the reflectance of solar insolation by the human settlement and grassland components of the Earth's terrestrial surface as a climate change mitigation measure. Preliminary estimates derived using a static radiative transfer model indicate that such efforts could amplify the planetary albedo enough to offset the current global annual average level of radiative forcing caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gases by as much as 30 percent or 0.76 W/m2. Terrestrial albedo amplification may thus extend, by about 25 years, the time available to advance the development and use of low-emission energy conversion technologies which ultimately remain essential to mitigate long-term climate change. However, additional study is needed to confirm the estimates reported here and to assess the economic and environmental impacts of active land-surface albedo amplification as a climate change mitigation measure.Comment: 21 pages, 3 figures. In press with Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, N

Protecting climate with forests

Policies for climate mitigation on land rarely acknowledge biophysical factors, such as reflectivity, evaporation, and surface roughness. Yet such factors can alter temperatures much more than carbon sequestration does, and often in a conflicting way. We outline a framework for examining biophysical factors in mitigation policies and provide some best-practice recommendations based on that framework. Tropical projects-avoided deforestation, forest restoration, and afforestation-provide the greatest climate value, because carbon storage and biophysics align to cool the Earth. In contrast, the climate benefits of carbon storage are often counteracted in boreal and other snow-covered regions, where darker trees trap more heat than snow does. Managers can increase the climate benefit of some forest projects by using more reflective and deciduous species and through urban forestry projects that reduce energy use. Ignoring biophysical interactions could result in millions of dollars being invested in some mitigation projects that provide little climate benefit or, worse, are counter-productive

Use of FLUXNET in the Community Land Model development

The Community Land Model version 3 (CLM3.0) simulates land-atmosphere exchanges in response to climatic forcings. CLM3.0 has known biases in the surface energy partitioning as a result of deficiencies in its hydrological and biophysical parameterizations. Such models, however, need to be robust for multidecadal global climate simulations. FLUXNET now provides an extensive data source of carbon, water and energy exchanges for investigating land processes, and it encompasses a global range of ecosystem-climate interactions. Data from 15 FLUXNET sites are used to identify and improve model deficiencies. Including a prognostic aquifer, a bare soil evaporation resistance formulation and numerous other changes in the model result in a significantly improved soil hydrology and energy partitioning. Terrestrial water storage increased by up to 300 mm in warm climates and decreased in cold climates. Nitrogen control of photosynthesis is revealed as another missing process in the model. These improvements increase the correlation coefficient of hourly and monthly latent heat fluxes from a range of 0.5–0.6 to the range of 0.7–0.9. RMSE of the simulated sensible heat fluxes decrease by 20–50%. Primary production is overestimated during the wet season in mediterranean and tropical ecosystems. This might be related to missing carbon-nitrogen dynamics as well as to site-specific parameters. The new model (CLM3.5) with an improved terrestrial water cycle should lead to more realistic land-atmosphere exchanges in coupled simulations. FLUXNET is found to be a valuable tool to develop and validate land surface models prior to their application in computationally expensive global simulations

The Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3)

Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society 2006. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 19 (2006): 2122–2143, doi:10.1175/JCLI3761.1.The Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) has recently been developed and released to the climate community. CCSM3 is a coupled climate model with components representing the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land surface connected by a flux coupler. CCSM3 is designed to produce realistic simulations over a wide range of spatial resolutions, enabling inexpensive simulations lasting several millennia or detailed studies of continental-scale dynamics, variability, and climate change. This paper will show results from the configuration used for climate-change simulations with a T85 grid for the atmosphere and land and a grid with approximately 1° resolution for the ocean and sea ice. The new system incorporates several significant improvements in the physical parameterizations. The enhancements in the model physics are designed to reduce or eliminate several systematic biases in the mean climate produced by previous editions of CCSM. These include new treatments of cloud processes, aerosol radiative forcing, land–atmosphere fluxes, ocean mixed layer processes, and sea ice dynamics. There are significant improvements in the sea ice thickness, polar radiation budgets, tropical sea surface temperatures, and cloud radiative effects. CCSM3 can produce stable climate simulations of millennial duration without ad hoc adjustments to the fluxes exchanged among the component models. Nonetheless, there are still systematic biases in the ocean–atmosphere fluxes in coastal regions west of continents, the spectrum of ENSO variability, the spatial distribution of precipitation in the tropical oceans, and continental precipitation and surface air temperatures. Work is under way to extend CCSM to a more accurate and comprehensive model of the earth's climate system.We would like to acknowledge the substantial contributions to and support for the CCSM project from the National Science Foundation (NSF), the Department of Energy (DOE), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration