Consumption and in Vitro Resistance to Gentamicin in Problematic Infections in an University Hospital

The aim of this study was to investigate the dynamic of gentamicin resistance in most frequently isolated Gram negative bacteria (Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Acinetobacter baumannii) and its correlation to the annual gentamicin consumption (DDD per 100 bed-days) during the period 2004 - 2013. The use of gentamicin was constantly increasing during the studied period, which is in correlation with the trend of increasing the rate of gentamicin resistant K. pneumoniae and A. baumannii. Increasing rates of resistance from 28% in 2004 to 39% in 2013, with peak of 48% in 2010 were detected in K. pneumoniae. During the period 2009 - 2012, а sharp rise in the development of gentamicin resistance was detected in А. baumannii: from 58% in 2009 to 78% in 2011. In E. coli, a trend of continuous increasing of gentamicin resistance was found only during the first half of the studied period (2004 - 2007), reaching the rate of 30%. In spite of the increased gentamicin consumption, stabilized rates of gentamicin resistance in E. coli (16-19%) were detected during the second half of the studied period (2008 - 2013).A clear correlation during the studied years `increased consumption - increased resistance rate` was not found for P. aeruginosa, although the general trend for this long period of time is for increasing the gentamicin resistance in this bacterial species (from 25% to 35%)

Japan After an ‘Export Bubble’

Recent economic indicators of the performance of the Japanese economy have been weak and prognosis negative. In December Japanese industrial output contracted by 10%. In January this trend intensified. Moreover Toyota has announced 7,000 job losses and Honda a four month closure of their UK plant. Other labour market indicators and consumption related data suggest that the negative shock in the manufacturing sector is spreading gradually to the household sector. Paul Krugman has suggested that the Japanese economy is in ‘free fall’ as is world trade. This view can be linked to those who accuse Japan of relying on exports for growth and contributing to international imbalances that lie at the heart of the current financial crisis

Time to Extinction in Branching Processes and its Application in Epidemiology

2010 Mathematics Subject Classification: Primary 60J80; Secondary 92D30.The contemporary state of the theory of branching processes implies their application to any abstract population where individuals produce a set of new individuals. In this survey paper some recent developments in the study of time to extinction of continuous-time branching processes (BP) motivated by their applications in epidemiological modeling will be presented. The developed methodology and results are concerning Bellman−Harris (age-dependent) BP and more general Sevast'yanov's BP, as well

Comparison between Numerical and Simulation Methods for Age-dependent Branching Models with Immigration

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: primary: 60J80, 60J85, secondary: 62M09, 92D40This work aims to provide and to compare numerical computation and simulation method to estimate the distribution of some relevant variables related to an age-dependent model allowing immigration at state zero. Specifically, we analyze the behaviour of the following variables: the extinction time and the waiting time for the beginning of the survival of population forever. They are strongly related to the population and re-population experiments in biology and to the wastewater treatment, as well. Throughout the paper, we illustrate the methods provided by some proper examples.This paper is partly supported by NFSI-Bulgaria, Grant No. MM-1101/2001

ПОПУЛАЦИОННА ПЛЪТНОСТ НА МАЛКИЯТ ЛЮЦЕРНОВ ЛИСТОВ ХОБОТНИК PHYTONOMUS VARIABILIS HRBST. И ЛЮЦЕРНОВИЯТ ЛИСТОЯД PHYTODECTA FORNICATA BRUGG. ПРИ МНОГОЛИСТНА И ТРИЛИСТНА ЛЮЦЕРНА ВЪВ ВРЪЗКА С АНАТОМИЧНИТЕ ОСОБЕНОСТИ НА ЛИСТАТА ИМ.

Two alfalfa cultivars - the multifoliolate “Mnogolistna 1” and the trifoliolate “Europe” were investigated for their resistance towards two main alfalfa defoliators Phytonomus variabilis Hrbst., 1795 and Phytodecta fornicata Brugg., 1873. The results of the two year study showed that the population density of both pests was higher in the“Mnogolistna 1” fields. The anatomical study of the leaves showed that multifoliolate alfalfa cultivar has narrower palisade and spongy parenchyma and thinner leaves and cuticle which make it less resistant to Ph. variabilis and Ph. fornicata.Проучени са популационната плътност и хранителните предпочитания на малкият люцернов листов хоботник (Phytonomus variabilis Hrbst., 1795) и на люцерновият листояд (Phytodecta fornicata Brugg., 1873) към два сорта люцерна – многолистният “Многолистна 1” и трилистният “Европа”. Две годишните наблюдения показват по- висока популационна плътност и на двата неприятеля при сорт “Многолистна 1”. Резултатите от анатомичните проучвания на листата показаха по-малка височина на гъбчестия и палисадния паренхим, по-тънки листни петури, а също и формирането на по-тънка кутикула при сорта “Многолистна 1” в сравнение с “Европа”, което очевидно я прави по-предпочитана от проучваните листогризещи неприятели

Molecular epidemiology of multidrug resistant Acinetobacter Baumannii clinical isolates from two Bulgarian hospitals

Objectives: To investigate the molecular epidemiology of multidrug resistant (MDR) Acinetobacter baumannii isolates collected from patients in two Bulgarian Hospitals (H1, H2) during the period 2005-2012.Materials and Methods: A total of 93 nonduplicate MDR A. baumannii isolates collected from Intensive care units (ICUs) and surgical wards were studied. Antimicrobial susceptibility was tested by VITEK 2 (bioMérieux, Marcy l`Etoile) and Phoenix (BD) and the results were interpreted according to the current CLSI guidelines. Detection of carbapenemase encoding genes was performed by PCR. Isolates were genotyped by PFGE and rep-PCR DiversiLab system (bioMerieux) and compared against a library of A. baumannii strains representing the international clones (IC) 1-8.Results: Twenty seven isolates were carbapenem resistant and were associated with OXA-23 and OXA-58 enzymes. The majority of the investigated isolates (n=65) clustered with ICs 1, 2 and 8. Twenty five isolates from H2, collected during the period 2005-2007, did not cluster with any of the representative strains for the ICs 1-8 and formed a separate unique clone, which was found to persist in 2012.Conclusions: Our results reveal the epidemic and endemic potential of A. baumannii as well as persistence of clones over time. Multidrug resistance in A. baumannii from the investigated Bulgarian hospitals was associated with intrahospital dissemination of IC1, 2 and 8 and with unique local clones

Total Progeny in a Subcritical Branching Process with two Types of Immigration

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 60J80, 60F05We consider subcritical Bellman-Harris branching processes with two types of immigration - one appears whenever the process hits zero state and an other one is in accordance of an independent renewal process. The law of large numbers (LLN) for the total progeny of these processes and Anscombe's type central limit theorem (CLT) for the total number of particles in the cycles completely finished by the moment t are obtained.The paper is supported by NFSI-Bulgaria, Grant No. MM-1101/2001

Age-Dependent Branching Processes for Surveillance of Vaccine-Preventable Diseases with Incubation Period

The purpose of this paper is to review the recent results of the authors in the area of infectious disease modeling by means of branching stochastic processes. This is a new approach involving age-dependent branching models, which turned out to be more appropriate and flexible for describing the spread of an infection in a given population, than discrete time ones. Concretely, Bellman–Harris and Sevast'yanov's branching processes are investigated. It is justified that the proposed models are proper candidates as models of infectious diseases with incubation period like measles, mumps, avian flu, etc. It is worth to notice that in general the developed methodology is applicable to the diseases that follow the so-called SIR (susceptible–infected–removed) scheme in terms of epidemiological models. Two policies of extra-vaccination level are proposed and compared on the ground of simulation examples

Stochastic monotonicity and continuity properties of functions defined on Crump-Mode-Jagers branching processes, with application to vaccination in epidemic modelling

This paper is concerned with Crump-Mode-Jagers branching processes, describing spread of an epidemic depending on the proportion of the population that is vaccinated. Births in the branching process are aborted independently with a time-dependent probability given by the fraction of the population vaccinated. Stochastic monotonicity and continuity results for a wide class of functions (e.g., extinction time and total number of births over all time) defined on such a branching process are proved using coupling arguments, leading to optimal vaccination schemes to control corresponding functions (e.g., duration and final size) of epidemic outbreaks. The theory is illustrated by applications to the control of the duration of mumps outbreaks in Bulgaria