Hospitalizations for major osteoporotic fractures in Switzerland: a long-term trend analysis between 1998 and 2018.

Between 1998 and 2018, the number of hospitalizations for major osteoporotic fractures increased. After standardization for age, these numerical increases translated into a reduced incidence of hospitalizations for hip fractures and an increased incidence of hospitalizations for spine, proximal humerus, and distal radius fractures in both sexes. INTRODUCTION The longterm epidemiological trends of hospitalizations for major osteoporotic fractures (MOF) between 1998 and 2018 in Switzerland are unknown. METHODS The absolute number of acute hospitalizations for MOF (hip fractures and fractures of the spine, proximal humerus, and distal radius) and related length of acute hospital stay were extracted from the medical database of the Swiss Federal Office of Statistics. Age-standardized incidence rates were calculated using 1998 as the reference year. RESULTS Hospitalizations for MOF increased from 4483 to 7542 (+ 68.2%) in men and from 13,242 to 19,362 (+ 46.2%) in women. The age-standardized incidence of hospitalizations for MOF increased by 5.7% in men (p = 0.002) and by 5.1% in women (p = 0.018). The age-standardized incidence of hip fractures decreased by 15.3% in men (p < 0.001) and by 21.5% in women (p < 0.001). In parallel, the age-standardized incidence of MOF other than hip fractures increased by 31.8% in men (p < 0.001) and by 40.1% in women (p < 0.001). The mean length of acute hospital stays for MOF decreased from 16.3 to 8.5 days in men and from 16.9 to 8.1 days in women. CONCLUSION Between 1998 and 2018, the number of hospitalizations for MOF increased significantly by a larger extent than expected based on the ageing of the Swiss population alone. This increase was solely driven by an increased incidence of MOF other than hip fractures as incident hip fractures decreased over time in both sexes, more so in women than in men

Stronger response of farmland birds than farmers to climate change leads to the emergence of an ecological trap

Climate change is triggering adaptation by people and wildlife. The speed and magnitude of these responses may disrupt ecological equilibria and potentially cause further biodiversity losses, but this has rarely been studied. Species inhabiting human-dominated landscapes may be particularly negatively affected by human adaptations to climate change. This could be, for example, the case of ground-nesting farmland birds, a group of highly vulnerable species that may be impacted by shifts in the timing of mechanical farming operations in response to climate change. Here we aim to explore whether trends in phenology of breeding ground-nesting birds differ from those of farming practices, and whether differences lead to the emergence of phenological mistiming with detrimental consequences to the birds. To achieve our objective, we tan linear mixed effects models using a 38 year dataset on onset of farming practices (i.e. sowing dates) and laying date of two endangered ground-nesting farmland birds (Northern lapwing and Eurasian curlew) in Finland. We found that timing of farming practices advanced slower than birds nesting phenology, with birds progressively starting nesting before fields are sown. These nests are at high risk of destruction from incoming sowing operations. The results highlight the importance of considering human adaptation responses, in addition to those of wildlife, for implementing species conservation in managed landscapes under climate change.Peer reviewe

Analysis of a competitive respiratory disease system with quarantine

In the world of epidemics, the mathematical modeling of disease co-infection is gaining importance due to its contributions to mathematics and public health. Because the co-infection may have a double burden on families, countries, and the universe, understanding its dynamics is paramount. We study a SEIQR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-quarantined-recovered) deterministic epidemic model with a single host population and multiple strains (-$c$ and -$i$) to account for two competitive diseases with quarantine effects. To model the role of quarantine and isolation efficacy in disease dynamics, we utilize a linear function. Further, we shed light on the standard endemic threshold and determine the conditions for extinction or coexistence with and without forming co-infection. Next, we show the dependence of the criticality based on specific parameters of the different pathogens. We found that the disease-free equilibrium (DFE) of the single-strain model always exists and is globally asymptotically stable (GAS) if $\tilde{\mathcal{R}}_k^q\leq 1$, else, a stable endemic equilibrium. On top of that, the model has forward bifurcation at $\tilde{\mathcal{R}}_k^q = 1$. In the case of a two-strain model, the strain with a large reproduction number outcompetes the one with a smaller reproduction number. Further, if the co-infected quarantine reproduction number is less than one, the infections of already infected individuals will die out, and co-infection will persist in the population otherwise. We note that the quarantine and isolation of exposed and infected individuals will reduce the number of secondary cases below one, consequently reducing the disease complications if the total number of people in the quarantine is at most the critical value

Welche Rolle spielen Kinder in Schulen und Kindertagesstätten bei der Übertragung von SARS-CoV-2? – Eine evidenzbasierte Perspektive

Are children and adolescents relevant disease vectors when it comes to the transmission of SARS-CoV-2? Moreover, do they play a role as relevant disease vectors in a~school or kindergarten setting? These questions could not be sufficiently answered at the beginning of the pandemic. Consequently, schools and childcare facilities were closed to stop the spread of SARS-CoV\hbox-2. Over the past few months, researchers have gained a~more detailed understanding of the overall pandemic situation. The SARS-CoV\hbox-2 infection rate in children below 10~years of age in 2020 has been substantially lower than in adults. In addition, it showed that children had a~milder course of disease.Although a~majority of the analyses performed in schools and childcare facilities revealed that the virus is transmitted in these facilities, these transmissions did not, however, have a~considerable influence on the overall rate of new infections. Despite these findings, German politicians continue to advocate for the closure of childcare facilities, including schools, to fight the pandemic, whereas many specialist societies such as the German Society for Pediatric Infectious Diseases (DGPI) have emphasized that such closures should be the measure of last resort in combating the pandemic. The same message is also conveyed by a~German evidence-based S3~guideline established by an interdisciplinary expert group that had already put forward clear recommendations for high incidences in the general population at the beginning of February 2021, indicating that school closures were only required in exceptional cases.In this article, we would like to outline the situation based on the currently available data, try to predict the future, and discuss the circumstances necessary to realize normal classroom teaching without accepting the risk of an uncontrolled spread of SARS-CoV\hbox-2. ZUSAMMENFASSUNG Sind Kinder und Jugendliche relevante Vektoren für die Übertragung von SARS-CoV-2? Und welche Rolle spielt es, wenn sie eine Schule oder Kindertagesstätte besuchen? Diese Fragen konnten zu Beginn der Pandemie nur unzureichend beantwortet werden. So wurden weltweit Schulen und Kinderbetreuungseinrichtungen geschlossen, um die Verbreitung von SARS-CoV\hbox-2 einzudämmen. Inzwischen ist die Rolle von Kindern im Gesamtgeschehen der Pandemie jedoch klarer. Die Rate von SARS-CoV-2-Infektionen bei Kindern unter 10~Jahren war im Jahr 2020 deutlich niedriger als die bei Erwachsenen. Zudem zeigte sich bei Kindern ein deutlich milderer Verlauf der Erkrankung.Analysen zu Ausbrüchen an Schulen und Kinderbetreuungseinrichtungen kamen mehrheitlich zu dem Ergebnis, dass die Weitergabe des Virus in den Einrichtungen zwar stattfindet, jedoch das Infektionsgeschehen insgesamt nicht maßgeblich beeinflusst. Trotz dieser Erkenntnisse hält die deutsche Politik Schulschließungen weiterhin für einen integralen Baustein der Pandemiebekämpfung, wohingegen viele Fachgesellschaften, wie die Deutsche Gesellschaft für Pädiatrische Infektiologie e. V. (DGPI), betonen, dass es sich um das letzte Mittel in der Bekämpfung der Pandemie handeln sollte. Diese Botschaft hat auch eine evidenzbasierte und auf interdisziplinärem Expertenkonsens aufgebaute S3-Leitlinie, die bereits Anfang Februar 2021 klare Empfehlungen für Zeiten hoher Inzidenzen in der Gesamtbevölkerung ausgesprochen hat, die Schulschließungen nur noch in Ausnahmefällen für notwendig erachten.In diesem Artikel möchten wir die Datenlage mit Stand Juni 2021 zu diesem Thema darlegen, einen Blick in die Zukunft wagen und diskutieren, unter welchen Umständen ein regulärer Präsenzunterricht gelingen kann, ohne das Risiko einer unkontrollierten Ausbreitung von SARS-CoV\hbox-2 in Kauf nehmen zu müssen

The validity of self-reported cancer in a population-based cohort compared to that in formally registered sources

Background: Self-reported cancer has been validated with heterogeneous results across populations. The aim was to assess the validity of self-reported cancer in the Lifelines population-based cohort and to search for explanations for not reporting cancer. Methods: Data from adult participants (n = 152,780) from Lifelines was linked to the Dutch-Nationwide pathology databank (PALGA), which has nearly 100% coverage of cancer diagnoses in the Netherlands and is considered as the gold standard for ascertainment of cancer diagnosis in this study. Sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV) for self-reported cancers -reported as hand-written free text- were described. Logistic regressions analyses were performed to evaluate whether socio-demographic factors were associated with the presence of self-reported cancer when there was a diagnosis in PALGA. Results: 6611 (4.50%) participants had at least one self-reported diagnosis of cancer, where 9960 (6.97%) participants had at least one cancer diagnosis in PALGA. The sensitivity of self-reported cancer was 64.68% [95%CI:63.71–65.66], and 70.18% [95%CI:68.83–71.56] after excluding skin and cervical cancers. Skin and cervical cancers represented 61.24% of non-self-reported cancers. The overall PPV was 97.45% [95%CI:97.45–97.81], and 97.33% [95%CI:96.72–97.82] after the exclusion of skin and cervical cancers. Participants who did not self-report their cancer were more likely to be male, had longer time since diagnosis and lower educational level. Conclusion: Overall, the reports of cancer in Lifelines have a high positive predictive value and moderate sensitivity. One third of the cancers were not reported, mainly skin and cervical cancers. Male participants, those with a lower educational level and those with longer time since diagnosis were less likely to self-report a diagnosed cancer

Detecting volcanic sulfur dioxide plumes in the Northern Hemisphere using the Brewer spectrophotometer, other networks, and satellite observations

This paper demonstrates that SO 2 columnar amounts have significantly increased following the five largest volcanic eruptions of the past decade in the Northern Hemisphere. A strong positive signal was detected by all the existing networks either ground based (Brewer, EARLINET, AirBase) or from satellites (OMI, GOME-2). The study particularly examines the adequacy of the existing Brewer network to detect SO 2 plumes of volcanic origin in comparison to other networks and satellite platforms. The comparison with OMI and 45 GOME-2 SO 2 space-borne retrievals shows statistically significant agreement between the Brewer network data and the collocated satellite overpasses. It is shown that the Brewer instrument is capable of detecting significant columnar SO 2 increases following large volcanic eruptions, when SO 2 levels rise well above the instrumental noise of daily observations, estimated to be of the order of 2 DU. A model exercise from the MACC project shows that the large increases of SO 2 over Europe following the Bárðarbunga eruption in Iceland were not caused by local sources or ship emissions but are clearly linked to the eruption. We propose that by combining Brewer data with that from other networks and satellites, a useful tool aided by trajectory analyses and modeling could be created which can be used to forecast high SO 2 values both at ground level and in air flight corridors following future eruptions

Comparison of health behaviours between cancer survivors and the general population:a cross-sectional analysis of the Lifelines cohort

Purpose: To compare the differences in lifestyle behaviours between cancer survivors (CSs) and cancer-free participants in a large and representative population-based cohort. Methods: We included 115,257 adults from the Lifelines cohort. Cancer status was self-reported, and health behaviours were measured (e.g. body mass index [BMI]) or assessed by questionnaire (e.g. physical activity, smoking, alcohol consumption, sedentary behaviour and diet). The data were then categorised for logistic regression analysis, stratified and adjusted by sex and age (< 55 vs ≥ 55 years). Results: CSs (5473; 4.7%) were diagnosed 9 ± 8.5 years before data collection, were older (mean age 55.4 vs 44.4 years) and more often female (66.6% vs 33.4%) than the cancer-free participants. They were also more likely to be physically active and to have a better diet, and also less likely to be alcohol drinkers; but, were more likely to have a higher BMI, be former smokers and to be sedentary. After adjustment for sex and age, however, BMI was more likely to be normal, physical activity was more likely to be higher and smoking to be prevalent in CSs. Current smoking was also significantly higher among females and those aged < 55 years who were CSs than for those with no history of cancer. Conclusions: In this population-based cohort, CSs have health behaviour comparable to those without a cancer diagnosis. Implications for cancer survivors: Smoking cessation strategies should target all CSs, but efforts could yield greatest benefit if they target females and those younger than 55 years