A framework for parameter estimation using sharp-interface seawater intrusion models

Funding : This work was supported by Quebec’s Ministère de l'Environnement et de la Lutte contre les changements climatiques (MELCC) [project « Acquisition de connaissances sur les eaux souterraines dans la région des Îles-de-la-Madeleine » (Groundwater characterization project in the Magdalen Islands region)]; and the Fonds québécois de la recherche sur la nature et les technologies (FRQNT) [International internship program accessed through CentrEau, the Quebec Water Research Center]. The authors would like to thank the Municipality of Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine for providing pumping datasets and information on current and historical groundwater management. They would also like to thank the team at Université Laval working on the Magdalen Islands project, for their help acquiring datasets and for field logistics, John Molson, for proofreading, and finally the two anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments. The authors would also like to thank Vincent Post for discussions on deep open boreholes, and Francesca Lotti and John Doherty for discussions on seawater intrusion modeling and data assimilation. J-C Comte and O Banton acknowledge the financial support from the Fonds d'Action Québécois pour le Développement Durable for the ERT data collection, undertaken as part of the Madelin'Eau consortium (Ageos-Enviro'Puits-Hydriad), and further thank the Municipality of Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine for fieldwork logistical and technical support.Peer reviewedproo

Total area of spontaneous portosystemic shunts independently predicts hepatic encephalopathy and mortality in liver cirrhosis

Background & Aims: Spontaneous portosystemic shunts (SPSS) frequently develop in liver cirrhosis. Recent data suggested that the presence of a single large SPSS is associated with complications, especially overt hepatic encephalopathy (oHE). However, the presence of >1 SPSS is common. This study evaluates the impact of total cross-sectional SPSS area (TSA) on outcomes in patients with liver cirrhosis. Methods: In this retrospective international multicentric study, CT scans of 908 cirrhotic patients with SPSS were evaluated for TSA. Clinical and laboratory data were recorded. Each detected SPSS radius was measured and TSA calculated. One-year survival was the primary endpoint and acute decompensation (oHE, variceal bleeding, ascites) was the secondary endpoint. Results: A total of 301 patients (169 male) were included in the training cohort. Thirty percent of all patients presented with >1 SPSS. A TSA cut-off of 83 mm2 was used to classify patients with small or large TSA (S-/L-TSA). Patients with L-TSA presented with higher model for end-stage liver disease score (11 vs. 14) and more commonly had a history of oHE (12% vs. 21%, p <0.05). During follow-up, patients with L-TSA experienced more oHE episodes (33% vs. 47%, p <0.05) and had lower 1-year survival than those with S-TSA (84% vs. 69%, p <0.001). Multivariate analysis identified L-TSA (hazard ratio 1.66; 95% CI 1.02–2.70, p <0.05) as an independent predictor of mortality. An independent multicentric validation cohort of 607 patients confirmed that patients with L-TSA had lower 1-year survival (77% vs. 64%, p <0.001) and more oHE development (35% vs. 49%, p <0.001) than those with S-TSA. Conclusion: This study suggests that TSA >83 mm2 increases the risk for oHE and mortality in patients with cirrhosis. Our results support the clinical use of TSA/SPSS for risk stratification and decision-making in the management of patients with cirrhosis. Lay summary: The prevalence of spontaneous portosystemic shunts (SPSS) is higher in patients with more advanced chronic liver disease. The presence of more than 1 SPSS is common in advanced chronic liver disease and is associated with the development of hepatic encephalopathy. This study shows that total cross-sectional SPSS area (rather than diameter of the single largest SPSS) predicts survival in patients with advanced chronic liver disease. Our results support the clinical use of total cross-sectional SPSS area for risk stratification and decision-making in the management of SPSS.Jonel Trebicka is supported by grants from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (SFB TRR57, CRC1382), Cellex Foundation and European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program GALAXY study (No. 668031), LIVERHOPE (No. 731875) and MICROB-PREDICT (No. 825694) and the Cellex Foundation. Joan Genescà is a recipient of a Research Intensification grant from Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Spain. The study was partially funded by grants PI15/00066, and PI18/00947 from Instituto de Salud Carlos III and co-funded by European Union (ERDF/ESF, “Investing in your future”). Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivasis supported by Instituto de Salud Carlos III. Macarena Simón-Talero is a recipient of the grant JR 17/00029 from Instituto de Salud Carlos II

Non-invasive candidate protein signature predicts hepatic venous pressure gradient reduction in cirrhotic patients after sustained virologic response.

A reduction in hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) is the most accurate marker for assessing the severity of portal hypertension and the effectiveness of intervention treatments. This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic potential of blood-based proteomic biomarkers in predicting HVPG response amongst cirrhotic patients with portal hypertension due to Hepatitis C virus (HCV) and had achieved sustained virologic response (SVR).The study comprised 59 patients from two cohorts. Patients underwent paired HVPG (pretreatment and after SVR), liver stiffness (LSM), and enhanced liver fibrosis scores (ELF) measurements, as well as proteomics-based profiling on serum samples using SomaScan® at baseline (BL) and after SVR (EOS). Machine learning with feature selection (Caret, Random Forest and RPART) methods were performed to determine the proteins capable of classifying HVPG responders. Model performance was evaluated using AUROC (pROC R package).Patients were stratified by a change in HVPG (EOS vs. BL) into responders (greater than 20% decline in HVPG from BL, or 10 mmHg at BL) and non-responders. LSM and ELF decreased markedly after SVR but did not correlate with HVPG response. SomaScan (SomaLogic, Inc., Boulder, CO) analysis revealed a substantial shift in the peripheral proteome composition, reflected by 82 significantly differentially abundant proteins. Twelve proteins accurately distinguished responders from non-responders, with an AUROC of .86, sensitivity of 83%, specificity of 83%, accuracy of 83%, PPV of 83%, and NPV of 83%.A combined non-invasive soluble protein signature was identified, capable of accurately predicting HVPG response in HCV liver cirrhosis patients after achieving SVR