Primeness in Early Season Arkansas Raccoon Pelts

Trapping seasons in the United States are generally set around the time of the year when pelts are in “prime” condition and are in their most valuable state. In order to assess whether the start of the Arkansas trapping season is at an appropriate date 122 raccoons were captured during the month of November in 2014 and 2015. Based on the evaluation of experienced fur dealers, the percentage of pelts in prime condition was then assessed on weekly and half-monthly basis. This study indicates that starting the trapping season in the last half of the month may maximize the percentage of pelts that are in prime condition early in the season, especially in the southern region of the state

Incidental Captures of Plains Spotted Skunks (Spilogale putorius interrupta) By Arkansas Trappers, 2012-2017

Arkansas trappers were surveyed following the 2012 and four subsequent trapping seasons regarding accidental captures of spotted skunks while attempting to trap other species. A total of 132 trappers reported capturing spotted skunks although further investigation confirmed the validity of only 42 reports from trappers that caught a total of 60 spotted skunks. Incidental captures were rare; only 0.35-1.29% of trappers each year caught spotted skunks and came primarily from the Ozark and Ouachita regions of the state

The UK is the Eurozone's Dumping Ground

The European Union is dumping its goods on world markets, especially in the UK, because the euro is a structurally undervalued currency. First, the euro is an ‘incomplete’ currency. Unlike every other currency, there is no single sovereign standing behind it. Each member state of the Eurozone is ‘sub- sovereign’, since it stands behind the euro only to a certain percentage and collectively the member states do not share joint-and-several liability. Second, the euro is an artificially ‘constructed’ currency, as a consequence of the fixed rates used when it was introduced in 1999 to convert the domestic currencies of EZ members into euros. This affected not only the internal exchange rates between the EZ members, but also the international value of the euro. The net result has been a downward bias in the international trading value of the euro, with the inefficient southern member states dragging down the value of the euro relative to what it would be if all member states were as efficient as Germany and the Netherlands. The euro is undervalued against sterling on a purchasing power parity (PPP) basis by between 15.2% and 20%. As a consequence, the UK has almost always run a trade deficit with the EU over the period after the introduction of the euro. In 2018, the UK ratio of exports to imports with the EU was only 64%. While the UK maintains the close economic ties with the EU that the EU wants, the UK will remain a captive market for EZ member goods. Had the euro been correctly valued, then EZ exports to the UK in 2018 would have been lower by between £67.2bn and £88.4bn. The UK would therefore be entitled to impose an annual anti-dumping duty on the EZ in the range £67.2bn – £88.4bn. Ursula von der Leyen says the EU is ‘ready to design a new partnership with zero tariffs, zero quotas, zero dumping’ with the UK. It is quite shocking that the new German president of the European Commission calls for zero dumping, when her own country is one of the world’s biggest dumpers of goods onto world markets

Identifiability in Age/Period/Cohort Mortality Models

The addition of a set of cohort parameters to a mortality model can generate complex identifiability issues due to the collinearity between the dimensions of age, period and cohort. These issues can lead to robustness problems and difficulties making projections of future mortality rates. Since many modern mortality models incorporate cohort parameters, we believe that a comprehensive analysis of the identifiability issues in age/period/cohort mortality models is needed. In this paper, we discuss the origin of identifiability issues in general models before applying these insights to simple but commonly used mortality models. We then discuss how to project mortality models so that our forecasts of the future are independent of any arbitrary choices we make when fitting a model to data in order to identify the historical parameters

On the Projection of Mortality Rates to Extreme Old Age

This article shows how cohort mortality rate projections of mortality models that involve age effects can be improved and extended to extreme old ages. The proposed approach allows insurers to use such mortality models to obtain valuations of financial instruments such as annuities that depend on projections of extreme old age mortality rates

Quantifying Loss Aversion: Evidence from a UK Population Survey

We estimate loss aversion using on an online survey of a representative sample of over 4,000 UK residents. The average aversion to a loss of £500 relative to a gain of the same amount is 2.41, but loss aversion varies significantly with characteristics such as gender, age, education, financial knowledge, social class, employment status, management responsibility, income, savings and home ownership. Other influencing factors include marital status, number of children, ease of savings, rainy day fund, personality type, emotional state, newspaper and political party. However, once we condition on all the profiling characteristics of the respondents, some factors, in particular gender, cease to be significant, suggesting that gender differences in risk and loss attitudes might be due to other factors, such as income differences

Optimal funding and investment strategies in defined contribution pension plans under Epstein-Zin utility

A defined contribution pension plan allows consumption to be redistributed from the plan member’s working life to retirement in a manner that is consistent with the member’s personal preferences. The plan’s optimal funding and investment strategies therefore depend on the desired pattern of consumption over the lifetime of the member. We investigate these strategies under the assumption that the member has an Epstein-Zin utility function, which allows a separation between risk aversion and the elasticity of intertemporal substitution, and we also take into account the member’s human capital. We show that a stochastic lifestyling approach, with an initial high weight in equity-type investments and a gradual switch into bond-type investments as the retirement date approaches is an optimal investment strategy. In addition, the optimal contribution rate each year is not constant over the life of the plan but reflects trade-offs between the desire for current consumption, bequest and retirement savings motives at different stages in the life cycle, changes in human capital over the life cycle, and attitude to risk

Herschel/HIFI spectroscopy of the intermediate mass protostar NGC7129 FIRS 2

Herschel/HIFI observations of water from the intermediate mass protostar NGC 7129 FIRS 2 provide a powerful diagnostic of the physical conditions in this star formation environment. Six spectral settings, covering four H_2^(16)O and two H_2^(18)O lines, were observed and all but one H_2^(18)O line were detected. The four H_2 ^(16)O lines discussed here share a similar morphology: a narrower, ≈6km s^(−1), component centered slightly redward of the systemic velocity of NGC7129 FIRS 2 and a much broader, ≈25 km s^(−1) component centered blueward and likely associated with powerful outflows. The narrower components are consistent with emission from water arising in the envelope around the intermediate mass protostar, and the abundance of H_2O is constrained to ≈10^(−7) for the outer envelope. Additionally, the presence of a narrow self-absorption component for the lowest energy lines is likely due to self-absorption from colder water in the outer envelope. The broader component, where the H_2O/CO relative abundance is found to be ≈0.2, appears to be tracing the same energetic region that produces strong CO emission at high J