Optimism and commitment: An elementary theory of bargaining and war

We propose an elementary theory of wars fought by fully rational contenders. Two parties play a Markov game that combines stages of bargaining with stages where one side has the ability to impose surrender on the other. Under uncertainty and incomplete information, in the unique equilibrium of the game, long confrontations occur: war arises when reality disappoints initial (rational) optimism, and it persist longer when both agents are optimists but reality proves both wrong. Bargaining proposals that are rejected initially might eventually be accepted after several periods of confrontation. We provide an explicit computation of the equilibrium, evaluating the probability of war, and its expected losses as a function of i) the costs of confrontation, ii) the asymmetry of the split imposed under surrender, and iii) the strengths of contenders at attack and defense. Changes in these parameters display non-monotonic effects

Aquarium Nitrification Revisited: Thaumarchaeota Are the Dominant Ammonia Oxidizers in Freshwater Aquarium Biofilters

Ammonia-oxidizing archaea (AOA) outnumber ammonia-oxidizing bacteria (AOB) in many terrestrial and aquatic environments. Although nitrification is the primary function of aquarium biofilters, very few studies have investigated the microorganisms responsible for this process in aquaria. This study used quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) to quantify the ammonia monooxygenase (amoA) and 16S rRNA genes of Bacteria and Thaumarchaeota in freshwater aquarium biofilters, in addition to assessing the diversity of AOA amoA genes by denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) and clone libraries. AOA were numerically dominant in 23 of 27 freshwater biofilters, and in 12 of these biofilters AOA contributed all detectable amoA genes. Eight saltwater aquaria and two commercial aquarium nitrifier supplements were included for comparison. Both thaumarchaeal and bacterial amoA genes were detected in all saltwater samples, with AOA genes outnumbering AOB genes in five of eight biofilters. Bacterial amoA genes were abundant in both supplements, but thaumarchaeal amoA and 16S rRNA genes could not be detected. For freshwater aquaria, the proportion of amoA genes from AOA relative to AOB was inversely correlated with ammonium concentration. DGGE of AOA amoA genes revealed variable diversity across samples, with nonmetric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) indicating separation of freshwater and saltwater fingerprints. Composite clone libraries of AOA amoA genes revealed distinct freshwater and saltwater clusters, as well as mixed clusters containing both freshwater and saltwater amoA gene sequences. These results reveal insight into commonplace residential biofilters and suggest that aquarium biofilters may represent valuable biofilm microcosms for future studies of AOA ecology

Fortune Favours the Bold: An Agent-Based Model Reveals Adaptive Advantages of Overconfidence in War

Overconfidence has long been considered a cause of war. Like other decision-making biases, overconfidence seems detrimental because it increases the frequency and costs of fighting. However, evolutionary biologists have proposed that overconfidence may also confer adaptive advantages: increasing ambition, resolve, persistence, bluffing opponents, and winning net payoffs from risky opportunities despite occasional failures. We report the results of an agent-based model of inter-state conflict, which allows us to evaluate the performance of different strategies in competition with each other. Counter-intuitively, we find that overconfident states predominate in the population at the expense of unbiased or underconfident states. Overconfident states win because: (1) they are more likely to accumulate resources from frequent attempts at conquest; (2) they are more likely to gang up on weak states, forcing victims to split their defences; and (3) when the decision threshold for attacking requires an overwhelming asymmetry of power, unbiased and underconfident states shirk many conflicts they are actually likely to win. These “adaptive advantages” of overconfidence may, via selection effects, learning, or evolved psychology, have spread and become entrenched among modern states, organizations and decision-makers. This would help to explain the frequent association of overconfidence and war, even if it no longer brings benefits today

Enrichment and characterization of ammonia-oxidizing archaea from the open ocean : phylogeny, physiology and stable isotope fractionation

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2011. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Nature Publishing Group for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in The ISME Journal 5 (2011): 1796–1808, doi:10.1038/ismej.2011.58.Archaeal genes for ammonia oxidation are widespread in the marine environment, but direct physiological evidence for ammonia oxidation by marine archaea is limited. We report the enrichment and characterization of three strains of pelagic ammonia-oxidizing archaea (AOA) from the north Pacific Ocean that have been maintained in laboratory culture for over three years. Phylogenetic analyses indicate the three strains belong to a previously identified clade of water column-associated AOA and possess 16S rRNA genes and ammonia monooxygenase subunit a (amoA) genes highly similar (98-99% identity) to those recovered in DNA and cDNA clone libraries from the open ocean. The strains grow in natural seawater-based liquid medium while stoichiometrically converting ammonium (NH4 +) to nitrite (NO2 -). Ammonia oxidation by the enrichments is only partially inhibited by allylthiourea at concentrations known to inhibit cultivated ammonia-oxidizing bacteria. The three strains were used to determine the nitrogen stable isotope effect (15εNH3) during archaeal ammonia oxidation, an important parameter for interpreting stable isotope ratios in the environment. Archaeal 15εNH3 ranged from 13- 41‰, within the range of that previously reported for ammonia-oxidizing bacteria. Despite low amino acid identity between the archaeal and bacterial Amo proteins, their functional diversity as captured by 15εNH3 is similar.This work was supported by a Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) Postdoctoral Scholar fellowship to AES and the WHOI Ocean Life Institute

An automated Raman-based platform for the sorting of live cells by functional properties

Stable-isotope probing is widely used to study the function of microbial taxa in their natural environment, but sorting of isotopically labelled microbial cells from complex samples for subsequent genomic analysis or cultivation is still in its early infancy. Here, we introduce an optofluidic platform for automated sorting of stable-isotope-probing-labelled microbial cells, combining microfluidics, optical tweezing and Raman microspectroscopy, which yields live cells suitable for subsequent single-cell genomics, mini-metagenomics or cultivation. We describe the design and optimization of this Raman-activated cell-sorting approach, illustrate its operation with four model bacteria (two intestinal, one soil and one marine) and demonstrate its high sorting accuracy (98.3 ± 1.7%), throughput (200-500 cells h-1; 3.3-8.3 cells min-1) and compatibility with cultivation. Application of this sorting approach for the metagenomic characterization of bacteria involved in mucin degradation in the mouse colon revealed a diverse consortium of bacteria, including several members of the underexplored family Muribaculaceae, highlighting both the complexity of this niche and the potential of Raman-activated cell sorting for identifying key players in targeted processes.</p

Single-cell analysis tools for drug discovery and development

The genetic, functional or compositional heterogeneity of healthy and diseased tissues presents major challenges in drug discovery and development. Such heterogeneity hinders the design of accurate disease models and can confound the interpretation of biomarker levels and of patient responses to specific therapies. The complex nature of virtually all tissues has motivated the development of tools for single-cell genomic, transcriptomic and multiplex proteomic analyses. Here, we review these tools and assess their advantages and limitations. Emerging applications of single cell analysis tools in drug discovery and development, particularly in the field of oncology, are discussed