Late Planting Decisions with Crop Insurance: Decision Guidelines for Michigan Farmers in Spring 2011

Michigan has had unusually wet planting conditions in 2011, leading to substantial acreage that has not been planted at this late date. Farmers who purchased crop insurance have many options available to them. This paper addresses the major crop insurance decisions that farmers will face during the next 30 days.crop insurance, prevented planting, risk management, farm management, corn returns, soybean returns, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Farm Management, Risk and Uncertainty,

The determinants of use of maternal and child health services in Metro Cebu, the Philippines

The determinants of the use of family planning, prenatal care, childhood immunizations and oral rehydration salts (ORS) were studied with survey data of 8000 women in Metro Cebu, the Philippines. Polytomous logistic regression methods were used. The level of maternal education was the most consistent and important determinant of use of these four health services in both urban and rural areas. For example, the estimated odds of using modern contraception increased by six and eleven per cent for each additional year of schooling in urban and rural strata respectively. Economic status and access to service variables had less consistent patterns: women’s work status, for example, was associated only with contraceptive use

Development of ovum pickup and in vitro embryo production to assess fertility responses for mineral intervention studies

As nutrition is of central importance to cattle fertility, this study sought to assess how veterinarians and nutritional advisers manage trace element imbalance in the UK; diagnosis and treatment. The study also sought to develop a robust system for oocyte recovery (ovum pick-up (OPU)) and in vitro embryo production (IVP) for commercial use, and to identify key factors influencing success, including oestrus synchrony and ovarian stimulation prior to OPU. The intention originally was to use OPU/IVP to investigate the impact of mineral imbalances on bovine oocyte quality, early embryo development and pregnancy establishment following embryo transfer (ET). In the first survey of its kind in the UK, the understanding and approach of advisers to mineral nutrition on farms was investigated. Of the 173 respondents, 78% were vets in practice. The overall importance of minerals was recorded by vets as low 33%, medium 37%, and high 30%, while non-vets scored importance as low 17%, medium 48%, and high 35%. There was little consensus amongst the advisers, or within the vet and non-vet subgroups about mechanisms and interactions associated with deficiency, and particularly of copper responsive conditions. The most frequently identified deficiencies were selenium, copper and iodine, while the most commonly identified toxicity was molybdenum. For copper responsive conditions, all of the listed treatments were used at least “occasionally”; the most frequently being glass boluses, in-feed supplementation, matrix boluses, and then copper injections. While there was a diverse choice of treatments, altering the ration was relatively rarely selected. This thesis also provides the first large-scale retrospective analysis of factors influencing the establishment of a commercially robust ovum pick up (OPU) and in vitro embryo production (IVP) platform in the UK. Over a 5-year period, a system was developed and validated for use in the UK with 2,138 cycles of OPU. These cycles were analysed as four sets of data and included two IVP laboratories and 6 OPU teams. Factors in these analyses included OPU team, IVP laboratory, ovarian stimulation protocol and semen type (unsorted vs sex-sorted). The mean number of follicles aspirated by the OPU teams ranged from 6.5 to 14.9 (P<0.001), while the number of oocytes collected was between 4.0 and 12.4 (P<0.001). There was an indication (P=0.055) that the blastocyst per oocyte rate varied between teams. The proportion of blastocysts from oocytes that cleaved was higher (P=0.01) for unsorted than sexed semen. Two commercial products containing different ratios of follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) to luteinising hormone (LH) (Folltropin® and Pluset®) were compared in ovarian stimulation programs. The addition of ‘coasting’ (short-term (typically 48h) hormonal withdrawal after FSH stimulation), prior to OPU was also investigated. Pluset® resulted in a greater (P<0.001) mean number of follicles aspirated, more (P=0.003) blastocysts per oocyte matured and more (P<0.001) embryos per cycle (2.45), compared with Folltropin® (1.17) or with no stimulation (1.24). Throughout the study there was a steady improvement in blastocyst production per OPU cycle. In a separate analysis, Grade 1 cumulus oocyte complexes (COCs) as a proportion of COCs recovered, oocytes that cleaved as a proportion of total COCs, and blastocysts as a proportion of total COCs, were all greater (P<0.05) for stimulated than non-stimulated cycles, irrespective of FSH/LH product. A composite score of oocyte quality and quantity was proposed (sCOC); Log Total Mean sCOC was correlated (P<0.001) with both the proportion of blastocysts per oocyte collected, and the total number of embryos produced per cycle. Finally, twelve peri-pubertal heifers (approximately 10 months old) participated in a crossover trial which compared PRID® (Delta®) vs CIDR® progesterone releasing intravaginal devices for use in OPU/IVP cycles. Vaginoscopic examination found higher vaginal inflammation grades for PRID® than CIDR® (P<0.001). There was evidence of vaginal inflammation continuing for at least 2 weeks after device withdrawal. The proportion cleaved of oocytes inseminated was higher for PRID® than CIDR® (P<0.05). Numerically but not significantly there was a higher proportion of blastocysts per cycle and a higher Log Total Mean sCOC score per cycle with PRID® than CIDR® treatments, but blastocyst yield was low throughout, suggesting a need to repeat the trial. Data collection and analyses are ongoing, to identify other key performance indicators within the OPU/IVP embryo transfer (ET) system, with a view to refining the sCOC composite score model. A robust OPU/IVP/ET system has been developed and this could be used to investigate further how mineral imbalances impact oocyte competence and blastocyst yield

Herschel Search for O_2 toward the Orion Bar

We report the results of a search for molecular oxygen (O_2) toward the Orion Bar, a prominent photodissociation region at the southern edge of the H II region created by the luminous Trapezium stars. We observed the spectral region around the frequency of the O_2 NJ = 33-12 transition at 487 GHz and the 5_(4)-3_(4) transition at 774 GHz using the Heterodyne Instrument for the Far-Infrared on the Herschel Space Observatory. Neither line was detected, but the 3σ upper limits established here translate to a total line-of-sight O2 column density <1.5 × 10^(16) cm^(–2) for an emitting region whose temperature is between 30 K and 250 K, or <1 × 10^(16) cm^(–2) if the O_2 emitting region is primarily at a temperature of ≲100 K. Because the Orion Bar is oriented nearly edge-on relative to our line of sight, the observed column density is enhanced by a factor estimated to be between 4 and 20 relative to the face-on value. Our upper limits imply that the face-on O_2 column density is less than 4 × 10^(15) cm^(–2), a value that is below, and possibly well below, model predictions for gas with a density of 10^(4)-10^(5) cm^(–3) exposed to a far-ultraviolet flux 10^4 times the local value, conditions inferred from previous observations of the Orion Bar. The discrepancy might be resolved if (1) the adsorption energy of O atoms to ice is greater than 800 K; (2) the total face-on A V of the Bar is less than required for O_2 to reach peak abundance; (3) the O_2 emission arises within dense clumps with a small beam filling factor; or (4) the face-on depth into the Bar where O_2 reaches its peak abundance, which is density dependent, corresponds to a sky position different from that sampled by our Herschel beams

‘Eastern African paradox’ rainfall decline due to shorter not less intense long rains

An observed decline in the Eastern African Long Rains from the 1980s to late 2000s appears contrary to the projected increase under future climate change. This “Eastern African climate paradox” confounds use of climate projections for adaptation planning across Eastern Africa. Here we show the decline corresponds to a later onset and earlier cessation of the long rains, with a similar seasonal maximum in area-averaged daily rainfall. Previous studies have explored the role of remote teleconnections, but those mechanisms do not sufficiently explain the decline or the newly identified change in seasonality. Using a large ensemble of observations, reanalyses and atmospheric simulations, we propose a regional mechanism that explains both the observed decline and the recent partial recovery. A decrease in surface pressure over Arabia and warmer north Arabian Sea is associated with enhanced southerlies and an earlier cessation of the long rains. This is supported by a similar signal in surface pressure in many atmosphere-only models giving lower May rainfall and an earlier cessation. Anomalously warm seas south of Eastern Africa delay the northward movement of the tropical rain-band, giving a later onset. These results are key in understanding the paradox. It is now a priority to establish the balance of mechanisms that have led to these trends, which are partially captured in atmosphere-only simulations

Medication burden in the first 5 years following diagnosis of type 2 diabetes: findings from the ADDITION-UK trial cohort.

INTRODUCTION: Individuals with screen-detected diabetes are likely to receive intensified pharmacotherapy to improve glycaemic control and general cardiometabolic health. Individuals are often asymptomatic, and little is known about the degree to which polypharmacy is present both before, and after diagnosis. We aimed to describe and characterize the pharmacotherapy burden of individuals with screen-detected diabetes at diagnosis, 1 and 5 years post-diagnosis. METHODS: The prescription histories of 1026 individuals with screen-detected diabetes enrolled in the ADDITION-UK trial of the promotion of intensive treatment were coded into general medication types at diagnosis, 1 and 5 years post-diagnosis. The association between change in the count of several medication types and age, baseline 10-year UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) cardiovascular disease (CVD risk), sex, intensive treatment group and number of medications was explored. RESULTS: Just under half of individuals were on drugs unrelated to cardioprotection before diagnosis (42%), and this increased along with a rise in the number of prescribed diabetes-related and cardioprotective drugs. The medication profile over the first 5 years suggests multimorbidity and polypharmacy is present in individuals with screen-detected diabetes. Higher modeled CVD risk at baseline was associated with a greater increase in cardioprotective and diabetes-related medication, but not an increase in other medications. CONCLUSION: As recommended in national guidelines, our results suggest that treatment of diabetes was influenced by the underlying risk of CVD. While many individuals did not start glucose lowering and cardioprotective therapies in the first 5 years after diagnosis, more information is required to understand whether this represents unmet need, or patient-centered care. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: CNT00237549.This study was supported by the Welcome Trust (grant number G061895), the Medical Research Council (Grant numbers G0001164 and MC_UU_12015/4) and the National Institute for Health Research (Grant number RP-PG-0606-1259).This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from BMJ via http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjdrc-2014-00007

Search for Interstellar Water in the Translucent Molecular Cloud toward HD 154368

We report an upper limit of 9 x 10^{12} cm-2 on the column density of water in the translucent cloud along the line of sight toward HD 154368. This result is based upon a search for the C-X band of water near 1240 \AA carried out using the Goddard High Resolution Spectrograph of the Hubble Space Telescope. Our observational limit on the water abundance together with detailed chemical models of translucent clouds and previous measurements of OH along the line of sight constrain the branching ratio in the dissociative recombination of H_3O+ to form water. We find at the $3\sigma$ level that no more than 30% of dissociative recombinations of H_3O+ can lead to H_2O. The observed spectrum also yielded high-resolution observations of the Mg II doublet at 1239.9 \AA and 1240.4 \AA, allowing the velocity structure of the dominant ionization state of magnesium to be studied along the line of sight. The Mg II spectrum is consistent with GHRS observations at lower spectral resolution that were obtained previously but allow an additional velocity component to be identified.Comment: Accepted by ApJ, uses aasp

Detection of extragalactic argonium, ArH+, toward PKS 1830−211

Context. Argonium has recently been detected as a ubiquitous molecule in our Galaxy. Model calculations indicate that its abundance peaks at molecular fractions in the range of 10^(-4) to 10^(-3) and that the observed column densities require high values of the cosmic ray ionization rate. Therefore, this molecular cation may serve as an excellent tracer of the very diffuse interstellar medium (ISM), as well as an indicator of the cosmic ray ionization rate. Aims. We attempted to detect ArH+ in extragalactic sources to evaluate its diagnostic power as a tracer of the almost purely atomic ISM in distant galaxies. Methods. We obtained ALMA observations of a foreground galaxy at z = 0.89 in the direction of the lensed blazar PKS 1830−211. Results. Two isotopologs of argonium, ^(36)ArH+ and ^(38)ArH+, were detected in absorption along two different lines of sight toward PKS 1830−211, known as the SW and NE images of the background blazar. The argonium absorption is clearly enhanced on the more diffuse line of sight (NE) compared to other molecular species. The isotopic ratio ^(36)Ar/^(38)Ar is 3.46 ± 0.16 toward the SW image, i.e., significantly lower than the solar value of 5.5. Conclusions. Our results demonstrate the suitability of argonium as a tracer of the almost purely atomic, diffuse ISM in high-redshift sources. The evolution of the isotopic ratio with redshift may help to constrain nucleosynthetic scenarios in the early Universe