Reconstructing the 2003/2004 H3N2 influenza epidemic in Switzerland with a spatially explicit, individual-based model

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Simulation models of influenza spread play an important role for pandemic preparedness. However, as the world has not faced a severe pandemic for decades, except the rather mild H1N1 one in 2009, pandemic influenza models are inherently hypothetical and validation is, thus, difficult. We aim at reconstructing a recent seasonal influenza epidemic that occurred in Switzerland and deem this to be a promising validation strategy for models of influenza spread. METHODS: We present a spatially explicit, individual-based simulation model of influenza spread. The simulation model bases upon (i) simulated human travel data, (ii) data on human contact patterns and (iii) empirical knowledge on the epidemiology of influenza. For model validation we compare the simulation outcomes with empirical knowledge regarding (i) the shape of the epidemic curve, overall infection rate and reproduction number, (ii) age-dependent infection rates and time of infection, (iii) spatial patterns. RESULTS: The simulation model is capable of reproducing the shape of the 2003/2004 H3N2 epidemic curve of Switzerland and generates an overall infection rate (14.9 percent) and reproduction numbers (between 1.2 and 1.3), which are realistic for seasonal influenza epidemics. Age and spatial patterns observed in empirical data are also reflected by the model: Highest infection rates are in children between 5 and 14 and the disease spreads along the main transport axes from west to east. CONCLUSIONS: We show that finding evidence for the validity of simulation models of influenza spread by challenging them with seasonal influenza outbreak data is possible and promising. Simulation models for pandemic spread gain more credibility if they are able to reproduce seasonal influenza outbreaks. For more robust modelling of seasonal influenza, serological data complementing sentinel information would be beneficia

Multidisziplinäres Malnutritionsprogramm zur Erfassung und Behandlung von Patienten mit dem Risiko oder bestehender Mangelernährung in pflegerischer Verantwortung

Malnutrition is a world-wide problem that does not only affect developing countries. People in industrialised countries, in particular the elderly, the poor and the sick, are at risk. In Switzerland, it is estimated that between 15 and 20% of patients (depending on patient population) show signs of malnutrition upon hospital admission. In response and based on a systematic review of the literature, a working group of the internal medicine department at the University Hospital Basel has developed a malnutrition programme comprising a screening instrument, a multidisciplinary care guideline, an information brochure, and a training programme for nursing staff. It is the aim of this article to report how the programme to recognise and treat malnutrition was developed, implemented, and evaluated

Prospects for whole genome sequencing of ancient Finnish cattle

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Recommendation of RILEM TC 271-ASC: New accelerated test procedure for the assessment of resistance of natural stone and fired-clay brick units against salt crystallization

This recommendation is devoted to testing the resistance of natural stone and fired-clay brick units against salt crystallization. The procedure was developed by the RILEM TC 271-ASC to evaluate the durability of porous building materials against salt crystallization through a laboratory method that allows for accelerated testing without compromising the reliability of the results. The new procedure is designed to replicate salt damage caused by crystallization near the surface of materials as a result of capillary transport and evaporation. A new approach is proposed that considers the presence of two stages in the salt crystallization test. In the first, the accumulation stage, salts gradually accumulate on or near the surface of the material due to evaporation. In the second, the propagation stage, damage initiates and develops due to changes in moisture content and relative humidity that trigger salt dissolution and crystallization cycles. To achieve this, two types of salt were tested, namely sodium chloride and sodium sulphate, with each salt tested separately. A methodology for assessing the salt-induced damage is proposed, which includes visual and photographical observations and measurement of material loss. The procedure has been preliminarily validated in round robin tests.</p