Livestock Market Integration and Price Discovery: Case of Mali

Replaced with revised version of paper 02/22/11.cointegration, structural breaks, market integration, Agricultural and Food Policy, Demand and Price Analysis, International Development, Livestock Production/Industries,

Essays on Dynamics of Cattle Prices in Three Developing Countries of Mali, Kenya, and Tanzania

One of the growing agricultural subsectors in developing countries is livestock. Livestock and livestock products account for a third of the agricultural gross output. However, the lack of viable livestock market information systems to increase efficiency of markets and support the decision making of traders, pastoralists, and policy makers are still an obstacle for a full development of this subsector. It is along these lines that the USAID, through the Global Livestock-Collaborative Research Support Program, supported the introduction of livestock market information systems in Kenya and Tanzania in 2003, and later in Mali in 2007. The overall objective of the dissertation is to test for cattle markets integration in three African developing countries of Mali, Kenya, and Tanzania. One way of assessing the efficiency of market and the impacts of liberalization policies is to test for market integration and price transmission. We also analyzed price leadership among the markets in each of the three case studies. Autoregressive models (vector autoregressive models and error correction model) were used to determine the level of cattle market integration. The results show a low level of cattle markets integration in Mali. The cattle markets in Mali are more-or-less independent with regard to price transmission among markets. Kenya cattle markets showed a good level of integration among the markets. Chepareria market in the Rift Valley region (west) seemed to lead other markets in price signal transmission. Tanzanian cattle markets exhibited a higher level of integration with Pugu market, in Dar es Salaam, leading other cattle markets in price signal transmission. In conclusion, the cattle markets in Tanzania and Kenya appeared to have a relatively higher level of market integration compared to the cattle markets in Mali. There is a reasonable belief that the time the livestock market information system has been in place, in each country, played a role in the market integration process. More time and better communications seem to have allowed the market actors to learn arbitrage skills and strengthen their trade relationships that ultimately led to the market integration

Economic and food security effects of small-scale irrigation technologies in Northern Ghana

Small-scale irrigation (SSI) technologies can be useful not only to increase crop productivity and income but also as a viable adaptation practice to climate variability. A farm simulation model (FARMSIM) and data from selected SSI technologies piloted in northern Ghana under the ‘Feed the Future-Innovation Lab for Small Scale Irrigation’ (ILSSI) project were used to assess the economic feasibility of the SSI technologies and their potential to improve income and nutrition of smallholder farm households. Three dry season irrigated crops (onion, corchorus, amaranthus) grown under three agricultural water management regimes were analysed. Results show that adoption of the SSI technologies could increase the net farm profit by 154%–608% against the baseline depending on the ‘crop type - SSI technology’ combination. Nutrition levels also improved significantly as a result of the improvements in crop yields due to irrigation and use of complementary inputs. However, the results further reveal that the options that utilize capital-intensive SSI technologies such as solar-powered water pumps to grow high value cash crops are constrained by the high investment cost. Currently, farmers tend to choose low-cost SSI technologies such as a traditional watering-cans, which generate low economic returns. Improving access to credit or alternative financing schemes could mitigate the capital constraints and enable smallholders to gain more benefits from participating in market-oriented high-value irrigated productio

Profitability and Economic Feasibility Analysis of Small Scale Irrigation Technologies in northern Ghana

Small-scale irrigation (SSI) technologies can be a useful tool not only to increase crop productivity and income but also to mitigate against climate variability in Ghana given the recent frequent dry spells. Profitability and economic feasibility of investing in the SSI technologies are analysed using a farm simulation model (FARMSIM) and based on farm-plot level data on selected SSI technologies piloted in northern Ghana under the Innovation Lab for Small Scale Irrigation (ILSSI). The aim is to identify profitable and economically feasible sets of ‘crop type–SSI technology’ combinations that would prove viable in “real world” farm conditions. Four dry season irrigated cash crop (corchorus, onion, and amaranths) grown under four SSI technologies (pump-tank-hose, watering can, and rain/roof water harvesting and drip irrigation) were considered. Results showed that rainwater-harvesting using poly tank storage and a drip system is not economically feasible at the current yield level and market prices of irrigated cash crops in northern Ghana. SSI technology options using river water or shallow wells with motorized pumps or watering cans were profitable. The watering can is relatively more profitable than motorized pumps because of fuel and upfront investment costs in pumps. However, affordable credit schemes could mitigate the cost constraint to afford motor pumps and enable smallholders to participate in market-oriented production

Forecasting yields, prices and net returns for main cereal crops in Tanzania as probability distributions: A multivariate empirical (MVE) approach

Maize (Zea mays L.), sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L. Moench) and rice (Oryza sativa) are essential staple crops to the livelihoods of many Tanzanians. But the future productivity of these crops is highly uncertain due to many factors including overdependence on rain-fed, poor agricultural practices and climate change and variability. Despite the multiple risks and constraints, it is vital to highlight the pathways of cereal production in the country. Understanding the pathways of cereals helps to inform policymakers, so they can make better decisions to improve the viability of the sector and its potential to increase food production and income for the majority population. In this study, we employ a Monte Carlo simulation approach to develop a multivariate empirical (MVE) distribution model to simulate stochastic variables for main cereal crops in Tanzania. Eleven years (2008–2018) of yields and prices data for maize, sorghum and rice were used in the model to simulate and forecast yields and prices in Dodoma and Morogoro regions of Tanzania for a seven-year period, from 2019 to 2025. Dodoma and Morogoro regions represent semi-arid and sub-humid agro-ecological zones, respectively. The simulated yields and prices were used with total costs and total area harvested for each crop to calculate the probable net present value (NPV) for each agro-ecological zone. The results on crop yield show a slightly increasing trend for all three crops in Dodoma region. Likewise, rice yield is expected to marginally increase in Morogoro with a decreasing trend for maize and sorghum, meanwhile, the prices for the three crops all are projected to increase for the two regions. Generally, the results on economic feasibility in terms of NPV revealed a high probability of success for all the crops in Dodoma despite a higher relative risk for rice. The results in Morogoro presented a high probability of success for rice and sorghum with maize indicating the highest relative risk, and a 2.41% probability of negative NPV. This study helps to better understand the outlook of the main cereal crop sub-sectors in two agro-ecological zones of Tanzania over the next seven years. With high dependence on rain-fed agriculture, production of main cereals in Tanzania are likely to face a high degree of risk and uncertainty threatening livelihoods, incomes and foo

An Economic Comparison between Alternative Rice Farming Systems in Tanzania Using a Monte Carlo Simulation Approach

Tanzania is the second-largest producer of rice (Oryza sativa) in Eastern, Central, and Southern Africa after Madagascar. Unfortunately, the sector has been performing poorly due to many constraints, including poor agricultural practices and climate variability. In addressing the challenge, the government is making substantial investments to speed the agriculture transformation into a more modernized, commercial, and highly productive and profitable sector. Our objective was to apply a Monte Carlo simulation approach to assess the economic feasibility of alternative rice farming systems operating in Tanzania while considering risk analysis for decision-makers with different risk preferences to make better management decisions. The rice farming systems in this study comprise rice farms using traditional practices and those using some or all of the recommended system of rice intensification (SRI) practices. The overall results show 2% and zero probability of net cash income (NCI) being negative for partial and full SRI adopters, respectively. Meanwhile, farmers using local and improved seeds have 66% and 60% probability of NCI being negative, correspondingly. Rice farms which applied fertilizers in addition to improved seeds have a 21% probability of negative returns. Additionally, net income for rice farms using local seeds was slightly worthwhile when the transaction made during the harvesting period compared to farms applied improved varieties due to a relatively high price for local seeds. These results help to inform policymakers and agencies promoting food security and eradication of poverty on the benefits of encouraging improved rice farming practices in the country. Despite climate variability, in Tanzania, it is still possible for rice farmers to increase food production and income through the application of improved technologies, particularly SRI management practices, which have shown a promising future.Peer Reviewe

Safety and Immunogenicity Study of Multiclade HIV-1 Adenoviral Vector Vaccine Alone or as Boost following a Multiclade HIV-1 DNA Vaccine in Africa

We conducted a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled Phase I study of a recombinant replication-defective adenovirus type 5 (rAd5) vector expressing HIV-1 Gag and Pol from subtype B and Env from subtypes A, B and C, given alone or as boost following a DNA plasmid vaccine expressing the same HIV-1 proteins plus Nef, in 114 healthy HIV-uninfected African adults.Volunteers were randomized to 4 groups receiving the rAd5 vaccine intramuscularly at dosage levels of 1×10(10) or 1×10(11) particle units (PU) either alone or as boost following 3 injections of the DNA vaccine given at 4 mg/dose intramuscularly by needle-free injection using Biojector® 2000. Safety and immunogenicity were evaluated for 12 months. Both vaccines were well-tolerated. Overall, 62% and 86% of vaccine recipients in the rAd5 alone and DNA prime - rAd5 boost groups, respectively, responded to the HIV-1 proteins by an interferon-gamma (IFN-γ) ELISPOT. The frequency of immune responses was independent of rAd5 dosage levels. The highest frequency of responses after rAd5 alone was detected at 6 weeks; after DNA prime - rAd5 boost, at 6 months (end of study). At baseline, neutralizing antibodies against Ad5 were present in 81% of volunteers; the distribution was similar across the 4 groups. Pre-existing immunity to Ad5 did not appear to have a significant impact on reactogenicity or immune response rates to HIV antigens by IFN-γ ELISPOT. Binding antibodies against Env were detected in up to 100% recipients of DNA prime - rAd5 boost. One volunteer acquired HIV infection after the study ended, two years after receipt of rAd5 alone.The HIV-1 rAd5 vaccine, either alone or as a boost following HIV-1 DNA vaccine, was well-tolerated and immunogenic in African adults. DNA priming increased the frequency and magnitude of cellular and humoral immune responses, but there was no effect of rAd5 dosage on immunogenicity endpoints.ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00124007

Ex-ante Farm Simulation Model Data

Farm Simulation Model (FARMSIM) data for Ex-ante analysis

Ex-ante Farm Simulation Model Data

Farm Simulation Model (FARMSIM) data for Ex-ante analysis