Constructing stability landscapes to identify alternative states in coupled social-ecological agent-based models

The resilience of a social-ecological system is measured by its ability to retain core functionality when subjected to perturbation. Resilience is contextually dependent on the state of system components, the complex interactions among these components, and the timing, location, and magnitude of perturbations. The stability landscape concept provides a useful framework for considering resilience within the specified context of a particular social-ecological system but has proven difficult to operationalize. This difficulty stems largely from the complex, multidimensional nature of the systems of interest and uncertainty in system response. Agent-based models are an effective methodology for understanding how cross-scale processes within and across social and ecological domains contribute to overall system resilience. We present the results of a stylized model of agricultural land use in a small watershed that is typical of the Midwestern United States. The spatially explicit model couples land use, biophysical models, and economic drivers with an agent-based model to explore the effects of perturbations and policy adaptations on system outcomes. By applying the coupled modeling approach within the resilience and stability landscape frameworks, we (1) estimate the sensitivity of the system to context- specific perturbations, (2) determine potential outcomes of those perturbations, (3) identify possible alternative states within state space, (4) evaluate the resilience of system states, and (5) characterize changes in system-scale resilience brought on by changes in individual land use decisions

Constructing stability landscapes to identify alternative states in coupled social-ecological agent-based models

The resilience of a social-ecological system is measured by its ability to retain core functionality when subjected to perturbation. Resilience is contextually dependent on the state of system components, the complex interactions among these components, and the timing, location, and magnitude of perturbations. The stability landscape concept provides a useful framework for considering resilience within the specified context of a particular social-ecological system but has proven difficult to operationalize. This difficulty stems largely from the complex, multidimensional nature of the systems of interest and uncertainty in system response. Agent-based models are an effective methodology for understanding how cross-scale processes within and across social and ecological domains contribute to overall system resilience. We present the results of a stylized model of agricultural land use in a small watershed that is typical of the Midwestern United States. The spatially explicit model couples land use, biophysical models, and economic drivers with an agent-based model to explore the effects of perturbations and policy adaptations on system outcomes. By applying the coupled modeling approach within the resilience and stability landscape frameworks, we (1) estimate the sensitivity of the system to context- specific perturbations, (2) determine potential outcomes of those perturbations, (3) identify possible alternative states within state space, (4) evaluate the resilience of system states, and (5) characterize changes in system-scale resilience brought on by changes in individual land use decisions

Genetic Algorithms and the Satisfiability of Large-Scale Boolean Expressions.

The two new genetic methods overpopulation and bitwise expected value are introduced. In overpopulation a temporary population of size Mn (M $\u3e$ 1) is created using genetic operators and the n children with the highest estimated fitness values are selected as the next generation. The rest are discarded. Bitwise expected value (bev) is the fitness estimation function used. Overpopulation and bitwise expected value are applied to the NP-complete problem 3SAT (a special form of Satisfiability in which the boolean expression consists of the conjunction of an arbitrary number of clauses where each clause consists of the disjunction of 3 boolean variables) with excellent empirical results when compared to the performance of the standard genetic algorithm. Overpopulation increases the cost of producing each generation due to the overhead required to maintain the larger temporary population but results in many fewer generations to solution. Using bitwise expected value as a fitness estimator causes the algorithm to take slightly more generations to solution but is much faster to calculate than the fitness function, leading to a decrease in wall-clock time to solution. Theoretical justification for the success of overpopulation is seen as a result of the generalization of the schema growth equation. Bitwise expected value is viewed as an analogy to the Building Block Hypothesis. Empirical evidence of high correlation between bev and the fitness function is presented. We also introduce the target problem concept, in which a difficult problem is transformed into a well-known problem for which a good genetic method of solution is known. As an example of the target problem concept a transformation from the Traveling Salesman Problem to Satisfiability is demonstrated. Overpopulation and bitwise expected value are applied to the resulting boolean expression, with good results. An interesting convergence property is observed

Considerations for health care institutions training large language models on electronic health records

Large language models (LLMs) like ChatGPT have excited scientists across fields; in medicine, one source of excitement is the potential applications of LLMs trained on electronic health record (EHR) data. But there are tough questions we must first answer if health care institutions are interested in having LLMs trained on their own data; should they train an LLM from scratch or fine-tune it from an open-source model? For healthcare institutions with a predefined budget, what are the biggest LLMs they can afford? In this study, we take steps towards answering these questions with an analysis on dataset sizes, model sizes, and costs for LLM training using EHR data. This analysis provides a framework for thinking about these questions in terms of data scale, compute scale, and training budgets

OPTIMIZATION OF THE HOT-ELECTRON BOLOMETER AND A CASCADE QUASIPARTICLE AMPLIFIER FOR SPACE ASTRONOMY

Ultra low noise bolometers are required for space - based astronomical observations. Extremely sensitive detectors are necessary for a deep full-sky survey of distant extragalactic sources in the submillimeter-wave region corresponding to the extraterrestrial background spectrum minimum. A deep full-sky survey is the main goal of the Submillimetron project of the cryogenically cooled telescope on the International Space Station [1,2], project CIRCE (NASA) and other projects. Detection of faint sources involvves wide-band continuum observation using direct detectors (bolometers) that are not restricted by the quantum noise of indirect heterodyne receivers. Theoretical estimations and preliminary experiments show that it is possible to realize the necessary sensitivity of 10-18 - 10-19 W/Hz1/2 with a novel concept of the antenna-coupled microbolometers at temperatures 0.1 K. Additional advantages of such detectors are the possibility to operate with a wide range of background load, easy integration in arrays, and direct possibility of polarization measurements

Natural language processing to automatically extract the presence and severity of esophagitis in notes of patients undergoing radiotherapy

Radiotherapy (RT) toxicities can impair survival and quality-of-life, yet remain under-studied. Real-world evidence holds potential to improve our understanding of toxicities, but toxicity information is often only in clinical notes. We developed natural language processing (NLP) models to identify the presence and severity of esophagitis from notes of patients treated with thoracic RT. We fine-tuned statistical and pre-trained BERT-based models for three esophagitis classification tasks: Task 1) presence of esophagitis, Task 2) severe esophagitis or not, and Task 3) no esophagitis vs. grade 1 vs. grade 2-3. Transferability was tested on 345 notes from patients with esophageal cancer undergoing RT. Fine-tuning PubmedBERT yielded the best performance. The best macro-F1 was 0.92, 0.82, and 0.74 for Task 1, 2, and 3, respectively. Selecting the most informative note sections during fine-tuning improved macro-F1 by over 2% for all tasks. Silver-labeled data improved the macro-F1 by over 3% across all tasks. For the esophageal cancer notes, the best macro-F1 was 0.73, 0.74, and 0.65 for Task 1, 2, and 3, respectively, without additional fine-tuning. To our knowledge, this is the first effort to automatically extract esophagitis toxicity severity according to CTCAE guidelines from clinic notes. The promising performance provides proof-of-concept for NLP-based automated detailed toxicity monitoring in expanded domains.Comment: 17 pages, 6 tables, 1figure, submiting to JCO-CCI for revie

Incorporating Sociocultural Phenomena into Ecosystem-Service Valuation: The Importance of Critical Pluralism

Ecosystem-services scholarship has largely focused on monetary valuation and the material contributions of ecosystems to human well-being. Increasingly, research is calling for a deeper understanding of how less tangible, nonmaterial values shape management and stakeholder decisions. We propose a framework that characterizes a suite of sociocultural phenomena rooted in key social science disciplines that are currently underrepresented in the ecosystem-services literature. The results from three example studies are presented to demonstrate how the tenets of this conceptual model can be applied in practice. We consider the findings from these studies in light of three priorities for future research: (1) complexities in individual and social functioning, (2) the salience and specificity of the perceived benefits of nature, and (3) distinctions among value concepts. We also pose a series of questions to stimulate reflection on how ecosystem-services research can adopt more pluralistic viewpoints that accommodate different forms of knowledge and its acquisition