Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980�2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures. Methods We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14�294 geography�year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95 uncertainty interval 61·4�61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5�72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7�17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5�70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1 (2·6�5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0 (15·8�18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1 (12·6�16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1 (11·9�14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1, 39·1�44·6), malaria (43·1, 34·7�51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8, 24·8�34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1, 19·3�37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146�000 deaths, 118�000�183�000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393�000 deaths, 228�000�532�000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost YLLs) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death. Interpretation At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY licens

Software performance of the ATLAS track reconstruction for LHC run 3

Charged particle reconstruction in the presence of many simultaneous proton–proton (pp) collisions in the LHC is a challenging task for the ATLAS experiment’s reconstruction software due to the combinatorial complexity. This paper describes the major changes made to adapt the software to reconstruct high-activity collisions with an average of 50 or more simultaneous pp interactions per bunch crossing (pileup) promptly using the available computing resources. The performance of the key components of the track reconstruction chain and its dependence on pile-up are evaluated, and the improvement achieved compared to the previous software version is quantified. For events with an average of 60 pp collisions per bunch crossing, the updated track reconstruction is twice as fast as the previous version, without significant reduction in reconstruction efficiency and while reducing the rate of combinatorial fake tracks by more than a factor two

Search for the Zγ decay mode of new high-mass resonances in pp collisions at √s = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This letter presents a search for narrow, high-mass resonances in the Zγ final state with the Z boson decaying into a pair of electrons or muons. The √s = 13 TeV pp collision data were recorded by the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider and have an integrated luminosity of 140 fb−1. The data are found to be in agreement with the Standard Model background expectation. Upper limits are set on the resonance production cross section times the decay branching ratio into Zγ. For spin-0 resonances produced via gluon–gluon fusion, the observed limits at 95% confidence level vary between 65.5 fb and 0.6 fb, while for spin-2 resonances produced via gluon–gluon fusion (or quark–antiquark initial states) limits vary between 77.4 (76.1) fb and 0.6 (0.5) fb, for the mass range from 220 GeV to 3400 GeV

Search for a new heavy scalar particle decaying into a Higgs boson and a new scalar singlet in final states with one or two light leptons and a pair of τ-leptons with the ATLAS detector

A search for a new heavy scalar particle X decaying into a Standard Model (SM) Higgs boson and a new singlet scalar particle S is presented. The search uses a proton-proton (pp) collision data sample with an integrated luminosity of 140 fb−1 recorded at a centre-of-mass energy of s√ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. The most sensitive mass parameter space is explored in X mass ranging from 500 to 1500 GeV, with the corresponding S mass in the range 200–500 GeV. The search selects events with two hadronically decaying τ-lepton candidates from H → τ+τ− decays and one or two light leptons (ℓ = e, μ) from S → VV (V = W, Z) decays while the remaining V boson decays hadronically or to neutrinos. A multivariate discriminant based on event kinematics is used to separate the signal from the background. No excess is observed beyond the expected SM background and 95% confidence level upper limits between 72 fb and 542 fb are derived on the cross-section σ(pp → X → SH) assuming the same SM-Higgs boson-like decay branching ratios for the S → VV decay. Upper limits on the visible cross-sections σ(pp → X → SH → WWττ) and σ(pp → X → SH → ZZττ) are also set in the ranges 3–26 fb and 6–33 fb, respectively

Combination of searches for heavy spin-1 resonances using 139 fb−1 of proton-proton collision data at √s = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A combination of searches for new heavy spin-1 resonances decaying into diferent pairings of W, Z, or Higgs bosons, as well as directly into leptons or quarks, is presented. The data sample used corresponds to 139 fb−1 of proton-proton collisions at √s = 13 TeV collected during 2015–2018 with the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. Analyses selecting quark pairs (qq, bb, tt¯, and tb) or third-generation leptons (τν and τ τ ) are included in this kind of combination for the frst time. A simplifed model predicting a spin-1 heavy vector-boson triplet is used. Cross-section limits are set at the 95% confdence level and are compared with predictions for the benchmark model. These limits are also expressed in terms of constraints on couplings of the heavy vector-boson triplet to quarks, leptons, and the Higgs boson. The complementarity of the various analyses increases the sensitivity to new physics, and the resulting constraints are stronger than those from any individual analysis considered. The data exclude a heavy vector-boson triplet with mass below 5.8 TeV in a weakly coupled scenario, below 4.4 TeV in a strongly coupled scenario, and up to 1.5 TeV in the case of production via vector-boson fusion

Measurement of the cross-sections of the electroweak and total production of a Zγ pair in association with two jets in pp collisions at √s = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This Letter presents the measurement of the fiducial and differential cross-sections of the electroweak production of a Zγ pair in association with two jets. The analysis uses 140 fb−1 of LHC proton–proton collision data taken at √s = 13 TeV recorded by the ATLAS detector during the years 2015–2018. Events with a Z boson candidate decaying into either an e+e− or μ+μ− pair, a photon and two jets are selected. The electroweak component is extracted by requiring a large dijet invariant mass and by using the information about the centrality of the system and is measured with an observed and expected significance well above five standard deviations. The fiducial pp → Zγ jj cross-section for the electroweak production is measured to be 3.6 ± 0.5 fb. The total fiducial cross-section that also includes contributions where the jets arise from strong interactions is measured to be 16.8+2.0 −1.8 fb. The results are consistent with the Standard Model predictions. Differential cross-sections are also measured using the same events and are compared with parton-shower Monte Carlo simulations. Good agreement is observed between data and predictions

Search for direct production of electroweakinos in final states with one lepton, jets and missing transverse momentum in pp collisions at √s = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Searches for electroweak production of wino-like chargino pairs, χ˜ + 1 χ˜ − 1 , and of wino-like chargino and next-to-lightest neutralino, χ˜ ± 1 χ˜ 0 2 , are presented. The models explored assume that the charginos decay into a W boson and the lightest neutralino, χ˜ ± 1 → W±χ˜ 0 1 . The next-to-lightest neutralinos are degenerate in mass with the chargino and decay to χ˜ 0 1 and either a Z or a Higgs boson, χ˜ 0 2 → Zχ˜ 0 1 or hχ˜ 0 1 . The searches exploit the presence of a single isolated lepton and missing transverse momentum from the W boson decay products and the lightest neutralinos, and the presence of jets from hadronically decaying Z or W bosons or from the Higgs boson decaying into a pair of b-quarks. The searches use 139 fb−1 of √ s = 13 TeV proton-proton collisions data collected by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider between 2015 and 2018. No deviations from the Standard Model expectations are found, and 95% confdence level exclusion limits are set. Chargino masses ranging from 260 to 520 GeV are excluded for a massless χ˜ 0 1 in chargino pair production models. Degenerate chargino and next-to-lightest neutralino masses ranging from 260 to 420 GeV are excluded for a massless χ˜ 0 1 for χ˜ 0 2 → Zχ˜ 0 1 . For decays through an on-shell Higgs boson and for mass-splitting between χ˜ ± 1 /χ˜ 0 2 and χ˜ 0 1 as small as the Higgs boson mass, mass limits are improved by up to 40 GeV in the range of 200–260 GeV and 280–470 GeV compared to previous ATLAS constraints

Search for the decay of the Higgs boson to a Z boson and a light pseudoscalar particle decaying to two photons

A search for the decay of the Higgs boson to a Z boson and a light, pseudoscalar particle, a, decaying respectively to two leptons and to two photons is reported. The search uses the full LHC Run 2 proton–proton collision data at √s = 13 TeV, corresponding to 139 fb−1 collected by the ATLAS detector. This is one of the first searches for this specific decay mode of the Higgs boson, and it probes unexplored parameter space in models with axion-like particles (ALPs) and extended scalar sectors. The mass of the a particle is assumed to be in the range 0.1–33 GeV. The data are analysed in two categories: a merged category where the photons from the a decay are reconstructed in the ATLAS calorimeter as a single cluster, and a resolved category in which two separate photons are detected. The main background processes are from Standard Model Z boson production in association with photons or jets. The data are in agreement with the background predictions, and upper limits on the branching ratio of the Higgs boson decay to Za times the branching ratio α = γγ are derived at the 95% confidence level and they range from 0.08% to 2% depending on the mass of the a particle. The results are also interpreted in the context of ALP models

Measurement of the tt¯ cross section and its ratio to the Z production cross section using pp collisions at √s = 13.6 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The inclusive top-quark-pair production cross section σtt¯ and its ratio to the Z-boson production cross section have been measured in proton–proton collisions at √s = 13.6 TeV, using 29 fb−1 of data collected in 2022 with the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider. Using events with an opposite-charge electron-muon pair and b-tagged jets, and assuming Standard Model decays, the top-quark-pair production cross section is measured to be σtt¯=850±3(stat.)±18(syst.)±20(lumi.) pb. The ratio of the tt¯ and the Z-boson production cross sections is also measured, where the Z-boson contribution is determined for inclusive e+e− and μ+μ− events in a fiducial phase space. The relative uncertainty on the ratio is reduced compared to the tt¯ cross section, thanks to the cancellation of several systematic uncertainties. The result for the ratio, Rtt¯/Z=1.145±0.003(stat.)±0.021(syst.)±0.002(lumi.) is consistent with the Standard Model prediction using the PDF4LHC21 PDF set

Search for flavour-changing neutral tqH interactions with H → γγ in pp collisions at √s = 13 TeV using the ATLAS detector

A search for flavour-changing neutral interactions involving the top quark, the Higgs boson and an up-type quark q (q = c, u) is presented. The proton-proton collision data set used, with an integrated luminosity of 139 fb−1, was collected at √s = 13 TeV by the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider. Both the decay process t → qH in tt¯ production and the production process pp → tH, with the Higgs boson decaying into two photons, are investigated. No significant excess is observed and upper limits are set on the t → cH and the t → uH branching ratios of 4.3 × 10−4 and 3.8 × 10−4, respectively, at the 95% confidence level, while the expected limits in the absence of signal are 4.7 × 10−4 and 3.9 × 10−4. Combining this search with ATLAS searches in the H → τ+τ− and H → b¯b final states yields observed (expected) upper limits on the t → cH branching ratio of 5.8 × 10−4 (3.0 × 10−4) at the 95% confidence level. The corresponding observed (expected) upper limit on the t → uH branching ratio is 4.0 × 10−4 (2.4 × 10−4)