Forecasting age-related changes in breast cancer mortality among white and black US women: A functional approach

The disparity in breast cancer mortality rates among white and black US women is widening with higher mortality rates among black women. We apply functional time series models on age-specific breast cancer mortality rates for each group of women, and forecast their mortality curves using exponential smoothing state-space models with damping. The data were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program of the US (SEER, 2007). Mortality data were obtained from the National Centre for Health Statistics (NCHS) available on the SEER*Stat database. We use annual unadjusted breast cancer mortality rates from 1969 to 2004 in 5-year age groups (45-49, 50-54, 55-59, 60-64, 65-69, 70-74, 75-79, 80-84). Age-specific mortality curves were obtained using nonparametric smoothing methods. The curves are then decomposed using functional principal components and we fit functional time series models with four basis functions for each population separately. The curves from each population are forecast and prediction intervals are calculated. Twenty-year forecasts indicate an over-all decline in future breast cancer mortality rates for both groups of women. This decline is steeper among white women aged 55-73 and black women aged 60-84. For black women under 55 years of age, the forecast rates are relatively stable indicating no significant change in future breast cancer mortality rates among young black women in the next 20 years.Breast cancer mortality, racial and ethnic disparities, screening, trends, forecasting, functional data analysis

Forecasting age-specific breast cancer mortality using functional data models

Accurate estimates of future age-specific incidence and mortality are critical for allocation of resources to breast cancer control programs and evaluation of screening programs. The purpose of this study is to apply functional data analysis techniques to model age-specific breast cancer mortality time trends, and forecast entire age-specific mortality function using a state-space approach. We use yearly unadjusted breast cancer mortality rates in Australia, from 1921 to 2001 in 5 year age groups (45 to 85+). We use functional data analysis techniques where mortality and incidence are modeled as curves with age as a functional covariate varying by time. Data is smoothed using nonparametric smoothing methods then decomposed (using principal components analysis) to estimate basis functions that represent the functional curve. Period effects from the fitted functions are forecast then multiplied by the basis functions, resulting in a forecast mortality curve with prediction intervals. To forecast, we adopt a state-space approach and an extension of the Pegels modeling framework for selecting among exponential smoothing methods. Overall, breast cancer mortality rates in Australia remained relatively stable from 1960 to the late 1990's but declined over the last few years. A set of K=4 basis functions minimized the mean integrated squared forecasting error (MISFE) and accounts for 99.3% of variation around the mean mortality curve. 20 year forecast suggest a continual decline at a slower rate and stabilize beyond 2010 and by age, forecasts show a decline in all age groups with the greatest decline in older women. We illustrate the utility of a new modelling and forecasting approach to model breast cancer mortality rates using a functional model of age. The methods have the potential to incorporate important covariates such as Hormone Replacement Therapy (HRT) and interventions to represent mammographic screening. This would be particularly useful for evaluating the impact of screening on mortality and incidence from breast cancer.Mortality, Breast Cancer, Forecasting, Functional Data Analysis, Exponential Smoothing

Child mental health after parental separation: the impact of resident/non-resident parenting, parent mental health, conflict and socioeconomics.

Children of separated parents are consistently shown to have greater likelihood of poor mental health than children of intact families. Explanations to date have focussed on the impacts of parental conflict, and the role of resident mothers, neglecting the potential importance of non-resident fathers. Using recent data from the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children, this study 1) compares the mental health of children from intact families with resident fathers to those from separated families with non-resident fathers and 2) explores predictors of poor mental health among children from separated families. Children from separated families had poorer mental health than those from intact families, but this difference was explained fully by exposure to parental conflict, socioeconomic status and parent mental health, and to a lesser extent by parenting practices. Among children from separated families, the strongest predictor of child mental health was maternal parenting consistency. Policy implications are discussed

Forecasts of COPD mortality in Australia: 2006-2025

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is currently the fifth leading cause of death in Australia, and there are marked differences in mortality trends between men and women. In this study, we have sought to model and forecast age related changes in COPD mortality over time for men and women separately over the period 2006-2025.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Annual COPD death rates in Australia from 1922 to 2005 for age groups (50-54, 55-59, 60-64, 65-69, 70-74, 75-79, 80-84, 85+) were used. Functional time series models of age-specific COPD mortality rates for men and women were used, and forecasts of mortality rates were modelled separately for men and women.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Functional time series models with four basis functions were fitted to each population separately. Twenty-year forecasts were computed, and indicated an overall decline. This decline may be slower for women than for men. By age, we expect similar rates of decline in men over time. In contrast, for women, forecasts for the age group 75-79 years suggest less of a decline over time compared to younger age groups.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>By using a new method to predict age-specific trends in COPD mortality over time, this study provides important insights into at-risk age groups for men and women separately, which has implications for policy and program development.</p

Social media and online digital technology use among Muslim young people and parents: Qualitative focus group study

Background: Digital technology and social media use are common among young people in Australia and worldwide. Research suggests that young people have both positive and negative experiences online, but we know little about the experiences of Muslim communities. Objective: This study aims to explore the positive and negative experiences of digital technology and social media use among young people and parents from Muslim backgrounds in Melbourne, Victoria, Australia. Methods: This study involved a partnership between researchers and a not-for-profit organization that work with culturally and linguistically diverse communities. We adopted a participatory and qualitative approach and designed the research in consultation with young people from Muslim backgrounds. Data were collected through in-person and online focus groups with 33 young people aged 16-22 years and 15 parents aged 40-57 years. Data were thematically analyzed. Results: We generated 3 themes: (1) maintaining local and global connections, (2) a paradoxical space: identity, belonging and discrimination, and (3) the digital divide between young Muslims and parents. Results highlighted that social media was an important extension of social and cultural connections, particularly during COVID-19, when people were unable to connect through school or places of worship. Young participants perceived social media as a space where they could establish their identity and feel a sense of belonging. However, participants were also at risk of being exposed to discrimination and unrealistic standards of beauty and success. Although parents and young people shared some similar concerns, there was a large digital divide in online experiences. Both groups implemented strategies to reduce social media use, with young people believing that having short technology-free breaks during prayer and quality family time was beneficial for their mental well-being. Conclusions: Programs that address technology-related harms must acknowledge the benefits of social media for young Muslims across identity, belonging, representation, and social connection. Further research is required to understand how parents and young people can create environments that foster technology-free breaks to support mental well-being.2-s2.0-851306018033553661

Effectiveness of footwear and foot orthoses in reducing medial metatarsophalangeal joint pressure in women with hallux valgus

BackgroundHallux valgus is a common condition where the subluxation of the first metatarsophalangeal joint and lateral deviation of the hallux at the interphalangeal joint creates difficulty with footwear fit. Footwear and foot orthoses are commonly prescribed nonsurgical treatments for hallux valgus.Research questionDo extra-width footwear and foot orthoses influence peak pressure at the medial aspect of the metatarsophalangeal and interphalangeal joints in women with hallux valgus?MethodsCommunity-dwelling women with symptomatic hallux valgus underwent gait testing when wearing their own shoes and when wearing extra-width footwear fitted with three-quarter length, arch-contouring prefabricated foot orthoses. Peak pressure (kPa) on the medial aspect of the metatarsophalangeal and medial interphalangeal joints and on the plantar surface of the foot (hallux, lesser toes, metatarsophalangeal joint 1, metatarsophalangeal joints 2-5, midfoot and heel) were measured using the novel pedar-X system with the pedar pad and pedar insole, respectively (Novel, GmbH, Munich, Germany). Paired samples t-tests were used to calculate the differences between the two conditions, and the magnitude of observed differences was calculated using Cohen’s d.ResultsWe tested 28 participants (aged 44 to 80 years, mean 60.7, standard deviation 10.7). Compared to their own footwear, wearing the intervention footwear and orthoses was associated with a statistically significant decrease in pressure on the medial aspect of the metatarsophalangeal joint (58.3 ± 32.8 versus 42.6 ± 32.8, p=0.026, d=0.49), increased pressure under the midfoot (70.7 ± 25.7 versus 78.7 ± 23.6, p=0.029, d=0.33) and decreased pressure underneath the heel (137.3 ± 39.0 versus 121.3 ± 34.8, p=0.019, d=0.45). SignificanceThe intervention footwear and orthoses significantly decreased peak pressure on the medial aspect of the first metatarsophalangeal joint but had no significant effect on the interphalangeal joint. Further studies are required to determine whether these changes are associated with improvements in symptoms associated with hallux valgus

Greenspace and Atopic Sensitization in Children and Adolescents-A Systematic Review

In the last decade, studies investigating greenspace have highlighted several benefits to human health. However, the effect of greenspace on allergies and atopic sensitization in children was not clear. While several studies have investigated this link, the evidence has not been systematically synthesized. We conducted a systematic search of eight databases. Study characteristics and findings were extracted from five articles covering 11 cohorts published between 2012 and 2016, and study quality assessments were performed. Due to significant heterogeneity, meta-analysis was not conducted. Findings were not consistent, possibly due to variations in exposure measurements, study populations and location, the specific allergens tested, and inclusion of confounders. Protective effects from greenspace were reported in four cohorts, while two cohorts showed an increase in sensitization related to greenspace. The other five cohorts found no significant effect of greenspace on atopic sensitization. There is limited understanding of the contributions of greenspace to specific allergens. Future research should consider amount and type of greenspace, as well as the specific allergens tested