Capabilities of Global Ocean Programmes to Inform Climate Services

AbstractClimate services are identified as a means of providing the information that is needed to support decision makers in assessing the impacts of climate change on the oceans. We discuss the current observation programs to support these services, and their capacity to provide the information needed to monitor and address key science questions. An analysis of the current oceanographic observation programs is shown to be undersubscribed from their original plans. There are vulnerabilities in the current observing programs, particularly in relation to satellite measurements. The interaction of climate services with the research community, with policy makers and stakeholders and operational centres is outlined and leads to four recommendations. The key recommendations are for the more pervasisve development of climate services and for a modest increment in the observing program informed by the recommendations of the OceanObs’09 conference

Chapter 10 - Detection and attribution of climate change: From global to regional

This chapter assesses the causes of observed changes assessed in Chapters 2 to 5 and uses understanding of physical processes, climate models and statistical approaches. The chapter adopts the terminology for detection and attribution proposed by the IPCC good practice guidance paper on detection and attribution (Hegerl et al., 2010) and for uncertainty Mastrandrea et al. (2011). Detection and attribution of impacts of climate changes are assessed by Working Group II, where Chapter 18 assesses the extent to which atmospheric and oceanic changes influence ecosystems, infrastructure, human health and activities in economic sectors

Air temperature variations and gradients along the coast and fjords of western Spitsbergen

Daily temperature measurements from six meteorological stations along the coast and fjords of western Spitsbergen have been digitized and quality controlled in a Norwegian, Russian and Polish collaboration. Complete daily data series have been reconstructed back to 1948 for all of the stations. One of the station’s monthly temperature series has previously been extended back to 1898 and is included in this study. The long-term series show large temperature variability on western Spitsbergen with colder periods in the 1910s and 1960s and warmer periods in the 1930s, 1950s and in the 21st century. The most recent years are the warmest ones in the instrumental records. There is a positive and statistically significant trend in the annual times series for all of the stations; however, the strongest warming is seen in winter and spring. For the period 1979-2015, the linear trends range from 1.0 to 1.38°C/decade for the annual series and from 2.0 to 2.38°C/decade in winter. Threshold statistics demonstrate a decrease in the number of cold days per year and an increase in the number of warm days. A decreasing inter-annual variability is observed. In winter, spring and autumn, the stations in the northernmost areas of west Spitsbergen and in the innermost parts of Isfjorden are the coldest ones. In summer, however, the southernmost station is the coldest one

A review of spatial causal inference methods for environmental and epidemiological applications

The scientific rigor and computational methods of causal inference have had great impacts on many disciplines, but have only recently begun to take hold in spatial applications. Spatial casual inference poses analytic challenges due to complex correlation structures and interference between the treatment at one location and the outcomes at others. In this paper, we review the current literature on spatial causal inference and identify areas of future work. We first discuss methods that exploit spatial structure to account for unmeasured confounding variables. We then discuss causal analysis in the presence of spatial interference including several common assumptions used to reduce the complexity of the interference patterns under consideration. These methods are extended to the spatiotemporal case where we compare and contrast the potential outcomes framework with Granger causality, and to geostatistical analyses involving spatial random fields of treatments and responses. The methods are introduced in the context of observational environmental and epidemiological studies, and are compared using both a simulation study and analysis of the effect of ambient air pollution on COVID-19 mortality rate. Code to implement many of the methods using the popular Bayesian software OpenBUGS is provided

Evolving the narrative for protecting a rapidly changing ocean, post‐COVID‐19

The ocean is the linchpin supporting life on Earth, but it is in declining health due to an increasing footprint of human use and climate change. Despite notable successes in helping to protect the ocean, the scale of actions is simply not now meeting the overriding scale and nature of the ocean's problems that confront us. Moving into a post-COVID-19 world, new policy decisions will need to be made. Some, especially those developed prior to the pandemic, will require changes to their trajectories; others will emerge as a response to this global event. Reconnecting with nature, and specifically with the ocean, will take more than good intent and wishful thinking. Words, and how we express our connection to the ocean, clearly matter now more than ever before. The evolution of the ocean narrative, aimed at preserving and expanding options and opportunities for future generations and a healthier planet, is articulated around six themes: (1) all life is dependent on the ocean; (2) by harming the ocean, we harm ourselves; (3) by protecting the ocean, we protect ourselves; (4) humans, the ocean, biodiversity, and climate are inextricably linked; (5) ocean and climate action must be undertaken together; and (6) reversing ocean change needs action now. This narrative adopts a ‘One Health’ approach to protecting the ocean, addressing the whole Earth ocean system for better and more equitable social, cultural, economic, and environmental outcomes at its core. Speaking with one voice through a narrative that captures the latest science, concerns, and linkages to humanity is a precondition to action, by elevating humankind's understanding of our relationship with ‘planet Ocean’ and why it needs to become a central theme to everyone's lives. We have only one ocean, we must protect it, now. There is no ‘Ocean B’