Bridging the Gap Between Training and Inference for Spatio-Temporal Forecasting

Spatio-temporal sequence forecasting is one of the fundamental tasks in spatio-temporal data mining. It facilitates many real world applications such as precipitation nowcasting, citywide crowd flow prediction and air pollution forecasting. Recently, a few Seq2Seq based approaches have been proposed, but one of the drawbacks of Seq2Seq models is that, small errors can accumulate quickly along the generated sequence at the inference stage due to the different distributions of training and inference phase. That is because Seq2Seq models minimise single step errors only during training, however the entire sequence has to be generated during the inference phase which generates a discrepancy between training and inference. In this work, we propose a novel curriculum learning based strategy named Temporal Progressive Growing Sampling to effectively bridge the gap between training and inference for spatio-temporal sequence forecasting, by transforming the training process from a fully-supervised manner which utilises all available previous ground-truth values to a less-supervised manner which replaces some of the ground-truth context with generated predictions. To do that we sample the target sequence from midway outputs from intermediate models trained with bigger timescales through a carefully designed decaying strategy. Experimental results demonstrate that our proposed method better models long term dependencies and outperforms baseline approaches on two competitive datasets.Comment: ECAI 2020 Accepted, preprin

Accounting for Global Dispersion of Current Accounts.

We undertake a quantitative analysis of the dispersion of current accounts in an open economy version of incomplete insurance model, incorporating important market frictions in trade and financial flows. Calibrated with conventional parameter values, the stochastic stationary equilibrium of the model with limited borrowing can account for about two-thirds of the global dispersion of current accounts. The easing of financial frictions can explain nearly all changes in the current account dispersion in the past four decades whereas the easing of trade frictions has almost no impact on the current account dispersion.Distribution of Current Account, Incomplete Markets, Frictions.

Increased Risk of Ischemic Stroke during Sleep in Apneic Patients.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE:The literature indicates that obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) increases the risk of ischemic stroke. However, the causal relationship between OSA and ischemic stroke is not well established. This study examined whether preexisting OSA symptoms affect the onset of acute ischemic stroke. METHODS:We investigated consecutive patients who were admitted with acute ischemic stroke, using a standardized protocol including the Berlin Questionnaire on symptoms of OSA prior to stroke. The collected stroke data included the time of the stroke onset, risk factors, and etiologic subtypes. The association between preceding OSA symptoms and wake-up stroke (WUS) was assessed using multivariate logistic regression analysis. RESULTS:We identified 260 subjects with acute ischemic strokes with a definite onset time, of which 25.8% were WUS. The presence of preexisting witnessed or self-recognized sleep apnea was the only risk factor for WUS (adjusted odds ratio=2.055, 95% confidence interval=1.035-4.083, p=0.040). CONCLUSIONS:Preexisting symptoms suggestive of OSA were associated with the occurrence of WUS. This suggests that OSA contributes to ischemic stroke not only as a predisposing risk factor but also as a triggering factor. Treating OSA might therefore be beneficial in preventing stroke, particularly that occurring during sleep

L3 Auditory Interneuron Responses to Dual-frequency Calling Songs in Female Crickets (Acheta Domesticus)

Female crickets exhibit positive phonotaxis in response to calling songs with specific carrier frequencies (4-5 kHz), syllable periods (SP; 50-70ms), and other parameters. Among a number of ascending prothoracic auditory neurons identified, only L3 has been proposed to be involved in SP selective phonotaxis. L3 responds with selective decrement to 5 kHz stimulus with attractive SPs. Furthermore, L3 is highly tuned to 16 kHz auditory stimulus, which has been correlated with aversive phonotactic behaviors. L3’s cellular responses to simultaneous 16 kHz and 5 kHz stimuli were examined through extracellular recording, thereby further establishing the connection between L3’s selective decrement and selective phonotatic behavior

Rosen-Zener interferometry with Ultracold Atoms

We propose a time-domain "interferometer" based on ultracold Bose atoms loaded on a double well potential. By the adiabatic Rosen-Zener process, the barrier between two wells is ramped down slowly, held for a while, then ramped back. Starting with a coherent state of double well system, the final occupations on one well show interesting interference fringes in the time-domain. The fringe pattern is sensitive to the initial state, the interatomic interaction, and the external forces such as gravity which can change the shape of the double well. In this sense, this interferometric scheme has the potentials for precision measurements with ultracold atoms. The underlying mechanism is revealed and possible applications are discussed.Comment: 4 pages, 5 figure