An accurate test for homogeneity of odds ratios based on Cochran's Q-statistic

Background: A frequently used statistic for testing homogeneity in a meta-analysis of K independent studies is Cochran's Q. For a standard test of homogeneity the Q statistic is referred to a chi-square distribution with K - 1 degrees of freedom. For the situation in which the effects of the studies are logarithms of odds ratios, the chi-square distribution is much too conservative for moderate size studies, although it may be asymptotically correct as the individual studies become large. Methods: Using a mixture of theoretical results and simulations, we provide formulas to estimate the shape and scale parameters of a gamma distribution to t the distribution of Q. Results: Simulation studies show that the gamma distribution is a good approximation to the distribution for Q. Conclusions: : Use of the gamma distribution instead of the chi-square distribution for Q should eliminate inaccurate inferences in assessing homogeneity in a meta-analysis. (A computer program for implementing this test is provided.) This hypothesis test is competitive with the Breslow-Day test both in accuracy of level and in power

The Risk of West Nile Virus Infection Is Associated with Combined Sewer Overflow Streams in Urban Atlanta, Georgia, USA

BACKGROUND: At present, the factors favoring transmission and amplification of West Nile Virus (WNV) within urban environments are poorly understood. In urban Atlanta, Georgia, the highly polluted waters of streams affected by combined sewer overflow (CSO) represent significant habitats for the WNV mosquito vector Culex quinquefasciatus. However, their contribution to the risk of WNV infection in humans and birds remains unclear.\ud \ud OBJECTIVES: Our goals were to describe and quantify the spatial distribution of WNV infection in mosquitoes, humans, and corvids, such as blue jays and American crows that are particularly susceptible to WNV infection, and to assess the relationship between WNV infection and proximity to CSO-affected streams in the city of Atlanta, Georgia.\ud \ud MATERIALS AND METHODS: We applied spatial statistics to human, corvid, and mosquito WNV surveillance data from 2001 through 2007. Multimodel analysis was used to estimate associations of WNV infection in Cx. quinquefasciatus, humans, and dead corvids with selected risk factors including distance to CSO streams and catch basins, land cover, median household income, and housing characteristics.\ud \ud RESULTS: We found that WNV infection in mosquitoes, corvids, and humans was spatially clustered and statistically associated with CSO-affected streams. WNV infection in Cx. quinquefasciatus was significantly higher in CSO compared with non-CSO streams, and WNV infection rates among humans and corvids were significantly associated with proximity to CSO-affected streams, the extent of tree cover, and median household income.\ud \ud CONCLUSIONS: Our study strongly suggests that CSO-affected streams are significant sources of Cx. quinquefasciatus mosquitoes that may facilitate WNV transmission to humans within urban environments. Our findings may have direct implications for the surveillance and control of WNV in other urban centers that continue to use CSO systems as a waste management practice

Silencing Early Viral Replication in Macrophages and Dendritic Cells Effectively Suppresses Flavivirus Encephalitis

West Nile (WN) and St. Louis encephalitis (SLE) viruses can cause fatal neurological infection and currently there is neither a specific treatment nor an approved vaccine for these infections. In our earlier studies, we have reported that siRNAs can be developed as broad-spectrum antivirals for the treatment of infection caused by related viruses and that a small peptide called RVG-9R can deliver siRNA to neuronal cells as well as macrophages. To increase the repertoire of broad-spectrum antiflaviviral siRNAs, we screened 25 siRNAs targeting conserved regions in the viral genome. Five siRNAs were found to inhibit both WNV and SLE replication in vitro reflecting broad-spectrum antiviral activity and one of these was also validated in vivo. In addition, we also show that RVG-9R delivers siRNA to macrophages and dendritic cells, resulting in effective suppression of virus replication. Mice were challenged intraperitoneally (i.p.) with West Nile virus (WNV) and treated i.v. with siRNA/peptide complex. The peritoneal macrophages isolated on day 3 post infection were isolated and transferred to new hosts. Mice receiving macrophages from the anti-viral siRNA treated mice failed to develop any disease while the control mice transferred with irrelevant siRNA treated mice all died of encephalitis. These studies suggest that early suppression of viral replication in macrophages and dendritic cells by RVG-9R-mediated siRNA delivery is key to preventing the development of a fatal neurological disease

Effects of temperature on the transmission of Yersinia Pestis by the flea, Xenopsylla Cheopis, in the late phase period

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Traditionally, efficient flea-borne transmission of <it>Yersinia pestis</it>, the causative agent of plague, was thought to be dependent on a process referred to as blockage in which biofilm-mediated growth of the bacteria physically blocks the flea gut, leading to the regurgitation of contaminated blood into the host. This process was previously shown to be temperature-regulated, with blockage failing at temperatures approaching 30°C; however, the abilities of fleas to transmit infections at different temperatures had not been adequately assessed. We infected colony-reared fleas of <it>Xenopsylla cheopis </it>with a wild type strain of <it>Y. pestis </it>and maintained them at 10, 23, 27, or 30°C. Naïve mice were exposed to groups of infected fleas beginning on day 7 post-infection (p.i.), and every 3-4 days thereafter until day 14 p.i. for fleas held at 10°C, or 28 days p.i. for fleas held at 23-30°C. Transmission was confirmed using <it>Y. pestis</it>-specific antigen or antibody detection assays on mouse tissues.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Although no statistically significant differences in per flea transmission efficiencies were detected between 23 and 30°C, efficiencies were highest for fleas maintained at 23°C and they began to decline at 27 and 30°C by day 21 p.i. These declines coincided with declining median bacterial loads in fleas at 27 and 30°C. Survival and feeding rates of fleas also varied by temperature to suggest fleas at 27 and 30°C would be less likely to sustain transmission than fleas maintained at 23°C. Fleas held at 10°C transmitted <it>Y. pestis </it>infections, although flea survival was significantly reduced compared to that of uninfected fleas at this temperature. Median bacterial loads were significantly higher at 10°C than at the other temperatures.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our results suggest that temperature does not significantly effect the per flea efficiency of <it>Y. pestis </it>transmission by <it>X. cheopis</it>, but that temperature is likely to influence the dynamics of <it>Y. pestis </it>flea-borne transmission, perhaps by affecting persistence of the bacteria in the flea gut or by influencing flea survival. Whether <it>Y. pestis </it>biofilm production is important for transmission at different temperatures remains unresolved, although our results support the hypothesis that blockage is not necessary for efficient transmission.</p

Estimating Chikungunya prevalence in La Réunion Island outbreak by serosurveys: Two methods for two critical times of the epidemic

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) caused a major two-wave seventeen-month-long outbreak in La Réunion Island in 2005–2006. The aim of this study was to refine clinical estimates provided by a regional surveillance-system using a two-stage serological assessment as gold standard.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Two serosurveys were implemented: first, a rapid survey using stored sera of pregnant women, in order to assess the attack rate at the epidemic upsurge (s1, February 2006; n = 888); second, a population-based survey among a random sample of the community, to assess the herd immunity in the post-epidemic era (s2, October 2006; n = 2442). Sera were screened for anti-CHIKV specific antibodies (IgM and IgG in s1, IgG only in s2) using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays. Seroprevalence rates were compared to clinical estimates of attack rates.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In s1, 18.2% of the pregnant women were tested positive for CHIKV specific antibodies (13.8% for both IgM and IgG, 4.3% for IgM, 0.1% for IgG only) which provided a congruent estimate with the 16.5% attack rate calculated from the surveillance-system. In s2, the seroprevalence in community was estimated to 38.2% (95% CI, 35.9 to 40.6%). Extrapolations of seroprevalence rates led to estimate, at 143,000 and at 300,000 (95% CI, 283,000 to 320,000), the number of people infected in s1 and in s2, respectively. In comparison, the surveillance-system estimated at 130,000 and 266,000 the number of people infected for the same periods.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>A rapid serosurvey in pregnant women can be helpful to assess the attack rate when large seroprevalence studies cannot be done. On the other hand, a population-based serosurvey is useful to refine the estimate when clinical diagnosis underestimates it. Our findings give valuable insights to assess the herd immunity along the course of epidemics.</p

Meta-analysis of binary outcomes via generalized linear mixed models: a simulation study

Background: Systematic reviews and meta-analyses of binary outcomes are widespread in all areas of application. The odds ratio, in particular, is by far the most popular effect measure. However, the standard meta-analysis of odds ratios using a random-effects model has a number of potential problems. An attractive alternative approach for the meta-analysis of binary outcomes uses a class of generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs). GLMMs are believed to overcome the problems of the standard random-effects model because they use a correct binomial-normal likelihood. However, this belief is based on theoretical considerations, and no sufficient simulations have assessed the performance of GLMMs in meta-analysis. This gap may be due to the computational complexity of these models and the resulting considerable time requirements. Methods: The present study is the first to provide extensive simulations on the performance of four GLMM methods (models with fixed and random study effects and two conditional methods) for meta-analysis of odds ratios in comparison to the standard random effects model. Results: In our simulations, the hypergeometric-normal model provided less biased estimation of the heterogeneity variance than the standard random-effects meta-analysis using the restricted maximum likelihood (REML) estimation when the data were sparse, but the REML method performed similarly for the point estimation of the odds ratio, and better for the interval estimation. Conclusions: It is difficult to recommend the use of GLMMs in the practice of meta-analysis. The problem of finding uniformly good methods of the meta-analysis for binary outcomes is still open

Meta-analysis: Neither quick nor easy

BACKGROUND: Meta-analysis is often considered to be a simple way to summarize the existing literature. In this paper we describe how a meta-analysis resembles a conventional study, requiring a written protocol with design elements that parallel those of a record review. METHODS: The paper provides a structure for creating a meta-analysis protocol. Some guidelines for measurement of the quality of papers are given. A brief overview of statistical considerations is included. Four papers are reviewed as examples. The examples generally followed the guidelines we specify in reporting the studies and results, but in some of the papers there was insufficient information on the meta-analysis process. CONCLUSIONS: Meta-analysis can be a very useful method to summarize data across many studies, but it requires careful thought, planning and implementation