TSH-CHECK-1 test: diagnostic accuracy and potential application to initiating treatment for hypothyroidism in patients on anti-tuberculosis drugs.

Thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) promotes expression of thyroid hormones which are essential for metabolism, growth, and development. Second-line drugs to treat tuberculosis (TB) can cause hypothyroidism by suppressing thyroid hormone synthesis. Therefore, TSH levels are routinely measured in TB patients receiving second-line drugs, and thyroxin treatment is initiated where indicated. However, standard TSH tests are technically demanding for many low-resource settings where TB is prevalent; a simple and inexpensive test is urgently needed

Child abuse inventory at emergency rooms: CHAIN-ER rationale and design

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Child abuse and neglect is an important international health problem with unacceptable levels of morbidity and mortality. Although maltreatment as a cause of injury is estimated to be only 1% or less of the injured children attending the emergency room, the consequences of both missed child abuse cases and wrong suspicions are substantial. Therefore, the accuracy of ongoing detection at emergency rooms by health care professionals is highly important. Internationally, several diagnostic instruments or strategies for child abuse detection are used at emergency rooms, but their diagnostic value is still unknown. The aim of the study 'Child Abuse Inventory at Emergency Rooms' (CHAIN-ER) is to assess if active structured inquiry by emergency room staff can accurately detect physical maltreatment in children presenting at emergency rooms with physical injury.</p> <p>Methods/design</p> <p>CHAIN-ER is a multi-centre, cross-sectional study with 6 months diagnostic follow-up. Five thousand children aged 0-7 presenting with injury at an emergency room will be included. The index test - the SPUTOVAMO-R questionnaire- is to be tested for its diagnostic value against the decision of an expert panel. All SPUTOVAMO-R positives and a 15% random sample of the SPUTOVAMO-R negatives will undergo the same systematic diagnostic work up, which consists of an adequate history being taken by a pediatrician, inquiry with other health care providers by structured questionnaires in order to obtain child abuse predictors, and by additional follow-up information. Eventually, an expert panel (reference test) determines the <it>true </it>presence or absence of child abuse.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>CHAIN-ER will determine both positive and negative predictive value of a child abuse detection instrument used in the emergency room. We mention a benefit of the use of an expert panel and of the use of complete data. Conducting a diagnostic accuracy study on a child abuse detection instrument is also accompanied by scientific hurdles, such as the lack of an accepted reference standard and potential (non-) response. Notwithstanding these scientific challenges, CHAIN-ER will provide accurate data on the predictive value of SPUTOVAMO-R.</p

Prognostic factors related to sequelae in childhood bacterial meningitis: Data from a Greek meningitis registry

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Bacterial meningitis (BM) is a life-threatening disease, often related with serious complications and sequelae. Infants and children who survive bacterial meningitis often suffer neurological and other sequelae.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A total of 2,477 patients aged 1 month to 14 years old hospitalized in a Children's Hospital in Greece diagnosed with acute bacterial meningitis were collected through a Meningitis Registry, from 1974 to 2005. Clinical, laboratory and other parameters (sex, age, pathogen, duration of symptoms before and after admission) were evaluated through univariate and multivariate analysis with regard to sequelae. Analysis of acute complications were also studied but not included in the final model.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The rate of acute complications (arthritis and/or subdural effusion) was estimated at 6.8% (152 out of 2,251 patients, 95%CI 5.8-7.9) while the rate of sequelae (severe hearing loss, ventriculitis, hydrocephalus or seizure disorder) among survivors was estimated at 3.3% (73 out of 2,207 patients, 95%CI 2.6-4.2). Risk factors on admission associated with sequelae included seizures, absence of hemorrhagic rash, low CSF glucose, high CSF protein and the etiology of meningitis. A combination of significant prognostic factors including presence of seizures, low CSF glucose, high CSF protein, positive blood culture and absence of petechiae on admission presented an absolute risk of sequelae of 41.7% (95%CI 15.2-72.3).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>A combination of prognostic factors of sequelae in childhood BM may be of value in selecting patients for more intensive therapy and in identifying possible candidates for new treatment strategies.</p

Predicting sequelae and death after bacterial meningitis in childhood: A systematic review of prognostic studies

Background: Bacterial meningitis (BM) is a severe infection responsible for high mortality and disabling sequelae. Early identification of patients at high risk of these outcomes is necessary to prevent their occurrence by adequate treatment as much as possible. For this reason, several prognostic models have been developed. The objective of this study is to summarize the evidence regarding prognostic factors predicting death or sequelae due to BM in children 0-18 years of age. Methods: A search in MEDLINE and EMBASE was conducted to identify prognostic studies on risk factors for mortality and sequelae after BM in children. Selection of abstracts, full-text articles and assessment of methodological quality using the QUIPS checklist was performed by two reviewers independently. Data on prognostic factors per outcome were summarized. Results: Of the 31 studies identified, 15 were of moderate to high quality. Due to substantial heterogeneity in study characteristics and evaluated prognostic factors, no quantitative analysis was performed. Prognostic factors found to be statistically significant in more than one study of moderate or high quality are: complaints > 48 hours before admission, coma/impaired consciousness, (prolonged duration of) seizures, (prolonged) fever, shock, peripheral circulatory failure, respiratory distress, absence of petechiae, causative pathogen Streptococcus pneumoniae, young age, male gender, several cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) parameters and white blood cell (WBC) count. Conclusions: Although several important prognostic factors for the prediction of mortality or sequelae after BM were identified, the inability to perform a pooled analysis makes the exact (independent) predictive value of these factors uncertain. This emphasizes the need for additional well-conducted prognostic studie

Independent Validation of an Existing Model Enables Prediction of Hearing Loss after Childhood Bacterial Meningitis

Objective: This study aimed external validation of a formerly developed prediction model identifying children at risk for hearing loss after bacterial meningitis (BM). Independent risk factors included in the model are: duration of symptoms prior to admission, petechiae, cerebral spinal fluid (CSF) glucose level, Streptococcus pneumoniae and ataxia. Validation helps to evaluate whether the model has potential in clinical practice. Study design: 116 Dutch school-age BM survivors were included in the validation cohort and screened for sensorineural hearing loss (>25 dB). Risk factors were obtained from medical records. The model was applied to the validation cohort and its performance was compared with the development cohort. Validation was performed by application of the model on the validation cohort and by assessment of discrimination and goodness of fit. Calibration was evaluated by testing deviations in intercept and slope. Multiple imputation techniques were used to deal with missing values. Results: Risk factors were distributed equally between both cohorts. Discriminative ability (Area Under the Curve, AUC) of the model was 0.84 in the development and 0.78 in the validation cohort. Hosmer-Lemeshow test for goodness of fit was not significant in the validation cohort, implying good fit concerning the similarity of expected and observed cases. There were no significant differences in calibration slope and intercept. Sensitivity and negative predicted value were high, while specificity and positive predicted value were low which is comparable with findings in the development cohort. Conclusions: Performance of the model remained good in the validation cohort. This prediction model might be used as a screening tool and can help to identify those children that need special attention and a long follow-up period or more frequent auditory testing

Non-fatal disease burden for subtypes of depressive disorder: population-based epidemiological study

Background: Major depression is the leading cause of non-fatal disease burden. Because major depression is not a homogeneous condition, this study estimated the non-fatal disease burden for mild, moderate and severe depression in both single episode and recurrent depression. All estimates were assessed from an individual and a population perspective and presented as unadjusted, raw estimates and as estimates adjusted for comorbidity. Methods: We used data from the first wave of the second Netherlands-Mental-Health-Survey-and-Incidence-Study (NEMESIS-2, n = 6646; single episode Diagnostic and Statistical Manual (DSM)-IV depression, n = 115; recurrent depression, n = 246). Disease burden from an individual perspective was assessed as 'disability weight * time spent in depression' for each person in the dataset. From a population perspective it was assessed as 'disability weight * time spent in depression *number of people affected'. The presence of mental disorders was assessed with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI) 3.0. Results: Single depressive episodes emerged as a key driver of disease burden from an individual perspective. From a population perspective, recurrent depressions emerged as a key driver. These findings remained unaltered after adjusting for comorbidity. Conclusions: The burden of disease differs between the subtype of depression and depends much on the choice of perspective. The distinction between an individual and a population perspective may help to avoid misunderstandings between policy makers and clinicians. © 2016 Biesheuvel-Leliefeld et al

Cost-effectiveness of nurse-led self-help for recurrent depression in the primary care setting: design of a pragmatic randomized trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Major Depressive Disorder is a leading cause of disability, tends to run a recurrent course and is associated with substantial economic costs due to increased healthcare utilization and productivity losses. Interventions aimed at the prevention of recurrences may reduce patients' suffering and costs. Besides antidepressants, several psychological treatments such as preventive cognitive therapy (PCT) are effective in the prevention of recurrences of depression. Yet, many patients find long-term use of antidepressants unattractive, do not want to engage in therapy sessions and in the primary care setting psychologists are often not available. Therefore, it is important to study whether PCT can be used in a nurse-led self-help format in primary care. This study sets out to test the hypothesis that usual care plus nurse-led self-help for recurrent depression in primary care is feasible, acceptable and cost-effective compared to usual care only.</p> <p>Design</p> <p>Patients are randomly assigned to ‘nurse-led self-help treatment plus usual care’ (134 participants) or ‘usual care’ (134 participants). Randomisation is stratified according to the number of previous episodes (2 or 3 previous episodes versus 4 or more). The primary clinical outcome is the cumulative recurrence rate of depression meeting DSM-IV criteria as assessed by the Structured-Clinical-Interview-for-DSM-IV- disorders at one year after completion of the intervention. Secondary clinical outcomes are quality of life, severity of depressive symptoms, co-morbid psychopathology and self-efficacy. As putative effect-moderators, demographic characteristics, number of previous episodes, type of treatment during previous episodes, age of onset, self-efficacy and symptoms of pain and fatigue are assessed. Cumulative recurrence rate ratios are obtained under a Poisson regression model. Number-needed-to-be-treated is calculated as the inverse of the risk-difference. The economic evaluation is conducted from a societal perspective, both as a cost-effectiveness analysis (costs per depression free survival year) and as a cost-utility analysis (costs per quality adjusted life-year).</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>The purpose of this paper is to outline the rationale and design of a nurse-led, cognitive therapy based self-help aimed at preventing recurrence of depression in a primary care setting. Only few studies have focused on psychological self-help interventions aimed at the prevention of recurrences in primary care patients.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>NTR3001 (<url>http://www.trialregister.nl</url>)</p

Reporting and Methods in Clinical Prediction Research: A Systematic Review

Walter Bouwmeester and colleagues investigated the reporting and methods of prediction studies in 2008, in six high-impact general medical journals, and found that the majority of prediction studies do not follow current methodological recommendations

Optimizing the diagnostic work-up of acute uncomplicated urinary tract infections

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Most diagnostic tests for acute uncomplicated urinary tract infections (UTIs) have been previously studied in so-called single-test evaluations. In practice, however, clinicians use more than one test in the diagnostic work-up. Since test results carry overlapping information, results from single-test studies may be confounded. The primary objective of the Amsterdam Cystitis/Urinary Tract Infection Study (ACUTIS) is to determine the (additional) diagnostic value of relevant tests from patient history and laboratory investigations, taking into account their mutual dependencies. Consequently, after suitable validation, an easy to use, multivariable diagnostic rule (clinical index) will be derived.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Women who contact their GP with painful and/or frequent micturition undergo a series of possibly relevant tests, consisting of patient history questions and laboratory investigations. Using urine culture as the reference standard, two multivariable models (diagnostic indices) will be generated: a model which assumes that patients attend the GP surgery and a model based on telephone contact only. Models will be made more robust using the bootstrap. Discrimination will be visualized in high resolution histograms of the posterior UTI probabilities and summarized as 5^th, 10^th, 25^th50^th, 75^th, 90^th, and 95^thcentiles of these, Brier score and the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC) with 95% confidence intervals. Using the regression coefficients of the independent diagnostic indicators, a diagnostic rule will be derived, consisting of an efficient set of tests and their diagnostic values.</p> <p>The course of the presenting complaints is studied using 7-day patient diaries. To learn more about the natural history of UTIs, patients will be offered the opportunity to postpone the use of antibiotics.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>We expect that our diagnostic rule will allow efficient diagnosis of UTIs, necessitating the collection of diagnostic indicators with proven added value. GPs may use the rule (preferably after suitable validation) to estimate UTI probabilities for women with different combinations of test results. Finally, in a subcohort, an attempt is made to identify which indicators (including antibiotic treatment) are useful to prognosticate recovery from painful and/or frequent micturition.</p

Predicted risk of harm versus treatment benefit in large randomised controlled trials

Most drugs come with unwanted, and perhaps harmful, side-effects. Depending on the size of the treatment benefit such harms may be tolerable. In acute stroke, treatment with aspirin and treatment with alteplase have both proven to be effective in reducing the odds of death or dependency in follow-up. However, in both cases, treated patients are subject to a greater risk of haemorrhage – a serious side-effect which could result in early death or greater dependency. Current treatment licenses are restricted so as to avoid treating those with certain traits or risk factors associated with bleeding. It is plausible however that a weighted combination of all these factors would achieve better discrimination than an informal assessment of each individual risk factor. This has the potential to help target treatment to those most likely to benefit and avoid treating those at greater risk from harm. This thesis will therefore: (i) explore how predictions of harm and benefit are currently made; (ii) seek to make improvements by adopting more rigorous methodological approaches in model development; and (iii) investigate how the predicted risk of harm and treatment benefit could be used to strike an optimal balance. Statistical prediction is not an exact science. Before clinical utility can be established it is essential that the performance of any prediction method be assessed at the point of application. A prediction method must attain certain desirable properties to be of any use, namely: good discrimination – which quantifies how well the prediction method can separate events from non-events; and good calibration – which measures how close the obtained predicted risks match the observed. A comparison of informal predictions made by clinicians and formal predictions made by clinical prediction models is presented using a prospective observational study of stroke patients seen at a single centre hospital in Edinburgh. These results suggest that both prediction methods achieve similar discrimination. A stratified framework based on predicted risks obtained from clinical prediction models is considered using data from large randomised trials. First, with three of the largest aspirin trials it is shown that there is no evidence to suggest that the benefit of aspirin on reducing six month death or dependency varies with the predicted risk of benefit or with the predicted risk of harm. Second, using data from the third International Stroke Trial (IST3) a similar question is posed of the effect of alteplase and the predicted risk of symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage. It was found that this relationship corresponded strongly with the relationship associated with stratifying patients according to their predicted risk of death or dependency in the absence of treatment: those at the highest predicted risk from either event stand to experience the largest absolute benefit from alteplase with no indication of harm amongst those at lower predicted risk. It is concluded that prediction models for harmful side-effects based on simple clinical variables measured at baseline in randomised trials appear to offer little use in targeting treatments. Better separation between harmful events like bleeding and overall poor outcomes is required. This may be possible through the identification of novel (bio)markers unique to haemorrhage post treatment