Global Energy Modelling : A Biophysical Approach (GEMBA)

The aim of this thesis is to take a broad conceptual overview of the global energy system and investigate what the aims of sustainability might entail for such a system. The work presented uses a biophysical economic approach in that the dynamics of the global economy are investigated using the tool box of the physical sciences, including the laws of thermodynamics and the methods of energy analysis. Modern society currently uses approximately 500 exajoules (EJ = 10^18 J) of total primary energy supply (TPES) each year. This energy consumption has been increasing at roughly 2% per year for the past two hundred years. TPES is currently dominated by three non-renewable energy sources: coal, oil and gas which, together with energy from nuclear fission of uranium, make up around 85% of the energy market. Consumption of finite resources at a continuously growing rate is not sustainable in the long-term. A trend in policy direction is to seek a transition to renewable sources of energy. This thesis seeks to explore two questions: are the technical potentials of renewable energy sources enough to supply the current and/or projected demand for energy and what would be the effect on the physical resource economy of a transition to an energy supply system run entirely on renewable energy sources? The Global Energy Model using a Biophysical Approach (GEMBA) methodology developed here is compared and contrasted with other approaches that are used to study the global energy-economy system, including the standard neoclassical economic approach used in such models as MESSAGE and MARKAL. A number of meta-analyses have been conducted in support of the GEMBA model. These include: meta-analysis of historic energy production from all energy sources; meta-analysis of global energy resources for all energy sources; meta-analysis of energy-return-on-investment (EROI) for all energy sources. The GEMBA methodology uses a systems dynamic modelling approach utilising stocks and flows, feedback loops and time delays to capture the behaviour of the global energy-economy system. The system is decomposed into elements with simple behaviour that is known through energy analysis. The interaction of these elements is captured mathematically and run numerically via the systems dynamics software package, VenSim. Calibration of the model has been achieved using historic energy production data from 1800 to 2005. The core of the GEMBA methodology constitutes the description of a dynamic EROI function over the whole production cycle of an energy resource from initial development, through maturation to decline in production, in the case of non-renewable resources, or to the technical potential in the case of renewable resources. Using the GEMBA methodology, the global energy-economy system is identified as a self-regulating system. The self-regulating behaviour acts to constrain the amount of total primary energy supply that the system can produce under a renewable-only regime. A number of analyses are conducted to test the sensitivity of the system to such changes as: an increase of the technical potential of renewable resources; technological breakthroughs which would significantly increase the EROI of renewable resources; a decrease in the capital intensity of renewable resources and; an increase in the energy intensity of the economy, A statistical analysis reflecting the wide range of values of both the estimates of EROI and technical potentials of renewable energy sources has also been undertaken using a Monte Carlo approach. The results from the modelling suggest that not all levels of energy demand projected by the WEA can be supplied by an energy system running solely on renewable energy. The Monte Carlo analyses suggest that reduction in total energy yield over current (2010) levels might occur with a 20-30% possibility. The middle and high growth scenarios from the WEA are greater than 95% of all scenarios modelled, hence seem unlikely to be sustained by an energy system running solely on renewable energy. This finding has implications for the future direction of both engineering and technology research as well as for energy policy. These implications are discussed

Трансформация форм занятости в условиях цифровизации экономики

Актуальность темы диссертационного исследования обусловлена радикальными технологическими изменениями, меняющими устройство жизни и социальные отношения. Масштабные изменения происходят в сферах труда и занятости населения. Трансформация форм занятости изменяет традиционно сложившуюся структуру занятости населения, способствует усилению мобильности трудовых ресурсов, распределение которых происходит под воздействием складывающейся конъюнктуры на международном и национальных рынках. В рамках исследования были проанализированы проблемы и риски, с которыми сталкивается предприятие при переводе сотрудников на дистанционный режим работы. В итоге представлен комплекс рекомендаций, по предотвращению проблем, минимизации рисков и оптимизации расходов.The relevance of the topic of the dissertation research is due to radical technological changes that change the structure of life and social relations. Major changes take place in the spheres of labor and employment of the population. The transformation of forms of employment alters the traditionally formed structure of the employment of the population, contributes to the increase in the mobility of labor resources, the distribution of which is influenced by the emerging conjuncture in international and national markets. The study analyzed the problems and risks faced by the company when transferring employees to a remote mode of operation. As a result, a set of recommendations is presented to prevent problems, minimize risks and optimize costs

Evangelistic Performance in New Zealand: The Word and What is Not Said

In 1518, Martin Luther is reputed to have nailed his 95 theses to the door of the Castle Church at Wittenberg, an act that sparked the Protestant Reformation. Luther sought change in the Catholic Church: a return to an unmediated relationship with God based on a closer understanding of the Word. Since then, Protestant evangelism has been a force for social change: and this is particularly true in New Zealand, where evangelism has gone hand in hand with the colonisation of the country. This thesis proposes that it is not, in fact, the literal understanding of the Word that gives these services meaning, and that such an understanding is problematic and perhaps even impossible: the Word is always a translation. Instead, it is through what is not said - the performative aspects of evangelistic services, including the use of space, the actions of the evangelist, and pre-existing cultural “horizons of expectation” - that meanings are produced. Taking as material Samuel Marsden’s first service in New Zealand in 1814, in which the Word was preached in English to a congregation who primarily spoke only Maori, the more contemporary example of televangelist Benny Hinn, who performs miracles to television cameras, and the religious and political performances of Destiny Church’s Brian Tamaki, this thesis uses the tools of performance studies to undertake an ethnographic study of evangelistic services. This brings into focus the ways in which evangelists may create congregations and produce meanings in their services through different modes of performance and the ways in which these ulterior meanings impact, and have impacted, on New Zealand society

Evaluation of a video-based Internet intervention as preparation for inpatient psychosomatic rehabilitation: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

SPIRIT checklist. Overview of important items of a clinical trial and their placement in the manuscript. (DOC 122 kb

Adherence and effectiveness of an emotion-based psychodynamic online self-help during and after inpatient and day-care psychotherapy: Results of a naturalistic study

BackgroundInternet-based mental health interventions are considered effective in providing low-threshold support for people with mental health disorders. However, there is a lack of research investigating the transferability of such online programs into routine care settings. Low treatment adherence and problems with technical implementation often limit a successful transfer into clinical routines. This naturalistic study aims to identify influencing factors on program adherence in patients who participated in an online intervention during inpatient or day-clinic psychotherapeutic treatment.Methods and findingsIn a naturalistic study, we investigated the transferability of the transdiagnostic psychodynamic online self-help program KEN-Online, which includes eight consecutive units. Between May 2017 and October 2018, patients who received inpatient or day-clinic psychotherapeutic treatment at the Department of Psychosomatic Medicine and Psychotherapy in the University Medical Center Mainz have been offered to use KEN-Online. Of the n = 749 patients who were admitted to the clinic, n = 239 patients (32%) registered for participation in KEN-Online. While 46.9% of the participants did not complete any unit (inactive participants), 53.1% completed at least the first unit (active participants). Age, number of diagnoses, and symptom severity were associated with (in)active participation. Adherence decreased over time resulting in only 17 participants (7.6%) who completed all units. None of the sociodemographic and medical characteristics proved to be significant predictors of adherence. Analyses of effectiveness showed a significant reduction of anxiety and depression in active participants in the course of participation, with higher improvements in participants that completed more than half of the units.ConclusionAdherence to the online self-help program KEN-Online was lower in the naturalistic setting than in a previous clinical trial, but was still associated with greater program effectiveness. Adherence-promoting measures are crucial to increase the effectiveness of such interventions in clinical settings

Personality traits and physical complaints in patients with acromegaly : a cross sectional multi-center study with analysis of influencing factors

Objective: Acromegalic patients display a distinct neuropsychological profile and suffer from chronic physical complaints. We aimed to investigate in more detail these aspects in acromegalic patients, dependent on influencing factors like disease activity, age, sex, chronic medication, surgery, pituitary radiation, pituitary insufficiency and comorbidities. Design: Cross sectional, multicentric. Methods: 129 patients (M/W 65/64, 58.3±12.7 ys., 53/76 with active/controlled disease). Acromegalic patients completed the following inventories: NEO-FFI, IIP-D, and the Giessen Complaints List (GBB-24), after written informed consent. Age, sex, IGF-1 concentrations, comorbidities, treatment modalities and pituitary insufficiency were documented. Results: Acromegalic patients or specific patient-subgroups were more agreeable, neurotic, exploitable/permissive, introverted/socially avoidant, non-assertive/insecure, nurturant and less open to experience, cold/denying, domineering, compared to normal values from the healthy population (controls). Multivariable analysis demonstrated that these overall results were due to the specific patient subgroups as patients on chronic medication, with arthrosis and pituitary insufficiency. Disease activity was only associated with the trait nurturant. Higher scores for introversion were associated with arthrosis. Lower domineering was independent of any disease- or treatment related variable or comorbidity. The GBB inventory showed overall higher scores in patients, with higher scores for exhaustion and general complaints being associated with pituitary insufficiency, coronary heart disease and history of malignancy in the multivariable analysis. Joint complaints were independent of any disease- or treatment- related variable. Conclusions: We define new aspects of a distinct neuropsychological profile in patients with acromegaly, which are largely independent of disease activity. Chronic physical complaints are more pronounced in patients than in controls, with exhaustion and general complaints showing no association with disease activity

To what extent are psychological variables considered in the study of risk and protective factors for suicidal thoughts and behaviours in individuals with cancer? A systematic review of 70 years of research

Psychological variables substantially shape the risk of suicidal thoughts and behaviours (STBs). However, it is unclear to what extent they are considered in individuals with cancer. We synthesized the quantitative research landscape concerning psychological risk/protective factors of STBs in the (psycho-) oncological context. This pre-registered review (PROSPERO-ID CRD42022331484) systematically searched the databases PubMed/Medline, CINAHL, PsycInfo, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science (as well as the grey literature and preprints). Risk of bias (RoB) was estimated using the ROBINS-I tool. Of 11,159 retrieved records, 319 studies were eligible for inclusion. Of those, 163 (51.1%) had investigated psychological factors (affective: n = 155; social: n = 65; cognitive: n = 63; personality/individual differences: n = 37; life events: n = 6), in a combined 3,561,741 participants. The most common STBs were suicidal ideation (n = 107) or death wishes (n = 20) rather than behaviour (suicide deaths: n = 26; attempts: n = 14). Most studies had a serious RoB. Thus, a large body of research investigated STBs in cancer patients/survivors, but it rarely aligned with the theoretical or clinical developments in suicide research. We propose a conceptual model of STBs in cancer delineating moderation and mediation effects to advance the integration of the fields, and to future research and practice