Model Data Fusion: developing Bayesian inversion to constrain equilibrium and mode structure

Recently, a new probabilistic "data fusion" framework based on Bayesian principles has been developed on JET and W7-AS. The Bayesian analysis framework folds in uncertainties and inter-dependencies in the diagnostic data and signal forward-models, together with prior knowledge of the state of the plasma, to yield predictions of internal magnetic structure. A feature of the framework, known as MINERVA (J. Svensson, A. Werner, Plasma Physics and Controlled Fusion 50, 085022, 2008), is the inference of magnetic flux surfaces without the use of a force balance model. We discuss results from a new project to develop Bayesian inversion tools that aim to (1) distinguish between competing equilibrium theories, which capture different physics, using the MAST spherical tokamak; and (2) test the predictions of MHD theory, particularly mode structure, using the H-1 Heliac.Comment: submitted to Journal of Plasma Fusion Research 10/11/200

Size-resolved mixing state of black carbon in the Canadian high Arctic and implications for simulated direct radiative effect

Transport of anthropogenic aerosol into the Arc- tic in the spring months has the potential to affect regional climate; however, modeling estimates of the aerosol direct radiative effect (DRE) are sensitive to uncertainties in the mixing state of black carbon (BC). A common approach in previous modeling studies is to assume an entirely exter- nal mixture (all primarily scattering species are in separate particles from BC) or internal mixture (all primarily scat- tering species are mixed in the same particles as BC). To provide constraints on the size-resolved mixing state of BC, we use airborne single-particle soot photometer (SP2) and ultrahigh-sensitivity aerosol spectrometer (UHSAS) mea- surements from the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) Polar 6 flights from the NETCARE/PAMARCMIP2015 campaign to estimate coating thickness as a function of refractory BC (rBC) core diameter and the fraction of particles contain- ing rBC in the springtime Canadian high Arctic. For rBC core diameters in the range of 140 to 220 nm, we find av- erage coating thicknesses of approximately 45 to 40 nm, re- spectively, resulting in ratios of total particle diameter to rBC core diameters ranging from 1.6 to 1.4. For total par- ticle diameters ranging from 175 to 730 nm, rBC-containing particle number fractions range from 16% to 3%, respec- tively. We combine the observed mixing-state constraints with simulated size-resolved aerosol mass and number dis- tributions from GEOS-Chem–TOMAS to estimate the DRE with observed bounds on mixing state as opposed to assuming an entirely external or internal mixture. We find that the pan-Arctic average springtime DRE ranges fro

No Reliable Association between Runs of Homozygosity and Schizophrenia in a Well-Powered Replication Study

It is well known that inbreeding increases the risk of recessive monogenic diseases, but it is less certain whether it contributes to the etiology of complex diseases such as schizophrenia. One way to estimate the effects of inbreeding is to examine the association between disease diagnosis and genome-wide autozygosity estimated using runs of homozygosity (ROH) in genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism arrays. Using data for schizophrenia from the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium (n = 21,868), Keller et al. (2012) estimated that the odds of developing schizophrenia increased by approximately 17% for every additional percent of the genome that is autozygous (β = 16.1, CI(β) = [6.93, 25.7], Z = 3.44, p = 0.0006). Here we describe replication results from 22 independent schizophrenia case-control datasets from the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium (n = 39,830). Using the same ROH calling thresholds and procedures as Keller et al. (2012), we were unable to replicate the significant association between ROH burden and schizophrenia in the independent PGC phase II data, although the effect was in the predicted direction, and the combined (original + replication) dataset yielded an attenuated but significant relationship between Froh and schizophrenia (β = 4.86,CI(β) = [0.90,8.83],Z = 2.40,p = 0.02). Since Keller et al. (2012), several studies reported inconsistent association of ROH burden with complex traits, particularly in case-control data. These conflicting results might suggest that the effects of autozygosity are confounded by various factors, such as socioeconomic status, education, urbanicity, and religiosity, which may be associated with both real inbreeding and the outcome measures of interest