Evidences of Interdependence and Contagion using a Frequency Domain Framework

The purpose of this paper is to propose a new measure of contagion. Our approach to testing contagion is based on the frequency analysis of causality developed recently by Breitung and Candelon (2004). This approach handles, in a unified framework, several of the statistical problems identified in the literature. It also permits clear differentiation between temporary and permanent shifts in cross-market linkages: the first case is contagion while the second one is simply a measure of interdependence among markets. In examining the ”Tequila” and Asian crises, we find evidence for contagion during both. It also turns out that during the Asian crisis both contagion and higher interdependence have contributed simultaneously to the diffusion of the crisis in Asia. The spillover effects of these crises have been geographically limited to the region where the shock originated.macroeconomics ;

Testing for Exceptional Bulls and Bears: a Non-Parametric Perspective

This paper investigates exceptional phases of stock market cycles. Defined in Pagan and Sossounov (2003) as unusual, they are detected as outliers in the historical distribution. Moreover, this study completes the growing literature on stock market bulls and bears in several aspects. First,it extends the description of financial cy- cles by going beyond solely the duration feature. Second, a new strategy to test for single and multiple outliers is presented. Based on this procedure, the exceptional bulls and bears that occurred since 1973 are detected. A complementary analysis deals with the specific cross-country patterns of the current sub-prime crisis. Our results are mixed, in the sense that they do not support the idea that the ongoing bear is exceptional for all the analyzed countries. Moreover, the results indicate that the stock market indices are still far away from the thresholds beyond which the current bear phase will become exceptional worldwide.monetary economics ;

Hierarchical Organization and Inequality in an Economy with an Implicit Market for Productive Time

This paper proposes an equilibrium theory of the organization of work in an economy with an implicit market for productive time. In this economy, agents have limited productive time and can choose to produce in autarky, buy productive time from helpers to increase own production or, sell their productive time to a leader and thereby give up own production. This implicit market gives rise to the formation of teams, organized in hierarchies with one leader at the top and helpers below. We show that relative to autarky, hierarchical organization leads to higher within and between team payoffs/productivity inequality. We investigate this link empirically in the context of road cycling. We show that the rise in performance inequality in the peloton since the 1970s is merely due to a rise in within team performance inequality and consistent with a change in the hierarchical organization of teams and an increase in the helping intensity within team.hierarchical organization, productive time, helping time, inequality, professional cycling