The cost-effectiveness of banning highly hazardous pesticides to prevent suicides due to pesticide self-ingestion across 14 countries:a model-based economic evaluation

Background: Reducing suicides is a key Sustainable Development Goal target for improving global health. Highly hazardous pesticides are among the leading causes of death by suicide in low-income and middle-income countries. National bans of acutely toxic highly hazardous pesticides have led to substantial reductions in pesticide-attributable suicides across several countries. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of implementing national bans of highly hazardous pesticides to reduce the burden of pesticide suicides.Methods: A Markov model was developed to examine the costs and health effects of implementing a national ban of highly hazardous pesticides to prevent suicides due to pesticide self-poisoning, compared with a null comparator. We used WHO cost-effectiveness and strategic planning (WHO-CHOICE) methods to estimate pesticide-attributable suicide rates for 100 years from 2017. Country-specific costs were obtained from the WHO-CHOICE database and denominated in 2017 international dollars (I$), discounted at a 3$0·007 per capita (95% UI 0·006–0·008). In the population-standardised results for the base case analysis, national bans produced cost-effectiveness ratios of $94 per HLYG (95$237 per HLYG (95% UI 191–303) across upper-middle-income and high-income countries. Bans were more cost-effective in countries where a high proportion of suicides are attributable to pesticide self-poisoning, reaching a cost-effectiveness ratio of $75 per HLYG (95% UI 58–99) in two countries with proportions of more than 30%.Interpretation: National bans of highly hazardous pesticides are a potentially cost-effective and affordable intervention for reducing suicide deaths in countries with a high burden of suicides attributable to pesticides. However, our study findings are limited by imperfect data and assumptions that could be improved upon by future studies.Funding: WHO

On the Crepant Resolution Conjecture in the Local Case

In this paper we analyze four examples of birational transformations between local Calabi-Yau 3-folds: two crepant resolutions, a crepant partial resolution, and a flop. We study the effect of these transformations on genus-zero Gromov-Witten invariants, proving the Coates-Corti-Iritani-Tseng/Ruan form of the Crepant Resolution Conjecture in each case. Our results suggest that this form of the Crepant Resolution Conjecture may also hold for more general crepant birational transformations. They also suggest that Ruan's original Crepant Resolution Conjecture should be modified, by including appropriate "quantum corrections", and that there is no straightforward generalization of either Ruan's original Conjecture or the Cohomological Crepant Resolution Conjecture to the case of crepant partial resolutions. Our methods are based on mirror symmetry for toric orbifolds.Comment: 27 pages. This is a substantially revised and shortened version of my preprint "Wall-Crossings in Toric Gromov-Witten Theory II: Local Examples"; all results contained here are also proved there. To appear in Communications in Mathematical Physic

Liquid–liquid phase separation in organic particles containing one and two organic species: importance of the average O : C

Recently, experimental studies have shown that liquid–liquid phase separation (LLPS) can occur in organic particles free of inorganic salts. Most of these studies used organic particles consisting of secondary organic materials generated in environmental chambers. To gain additional insight into LLPS in organic particles free of inorganic salts, we studied LLPS in organic particles consisting of one and two commercially available organic species. For particles containing one organic species, three out of the six particle types investigated underwent LLPS. In these cases, LLPS was observed when the O&thinsp;:&thinsp;C was  ≤ 0.44 (but not always) and the relative humidity (RH) was between  ∼ 97&thinsp;% and  ∼ 100&thinsp;%. The mechanism of phase separation was likely nucleation and growth. For particles containing two organic species, 13 out of the 15 particle types investigated underwent LLPS. In these cases, LLPS was observed when the O&thinsp;:&thinsp;C was  ≤ 0.58 (but not always) and mostly when the RH was between  ∼ 90&thinsp;% RH and  ∼ 100&thinsp;% RH. The mechanism of phase separation was likely spinodal decomposition. In almost all cases when LLPS was observed (for both one-component and two-component particles), the highest RH at which two liquids was observed was 100±2.0&thinsp;%, which has important implications for the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) properties of these particles. These combined results provide additional evidence that LLPS needs to be considered when predicting the CCN properties of organic particles in the atmosphere.</p

Identification of plastic constitutive parameters at large deformations from three dimensional displacement fields

The aim of this paper is to provide a general procedure to extract the constitutive parameters of a plasticity model starting from displacement measurements and using the Virtual Fields Method. This is a classical inverse problem which has been already investigated in the literature, however several new features are developed here. First of all the procedure applies to a general three-dimensional displacement field which leads to large plastic deformations, no assumptions are made such as plane stress or plane strain although only pressure-independent plasticity is considered. Moreover the equilibrium equation is written in terms of the deviatoric stress tensor that can be directly computed from the strain field without iterations. Thanks to this, the identification routine is much faster compared to other inverse methods such as finite element updating. The proposed method can be a valid tool to study complex phenomena which involve severe plastic deformation and where the state of stress is completely triaxial, e.g. strain localization or necking occurrence. The procedure has been validated using a three dimensional displacement field obtained from a simulated experiment. The main potentialities as well as a first sensitivity study on the influence of measurement errors are illustrated

Head-mounted Sensory Augmentation Device: Comparing Haptic and Audio Modality

This paper investigates and compares the effectiveness of haptic and audio modality for navigation in low visibility environment using a sensory augmentation device. A second generation head-mounted vibrotactile interface as a sensory augmentation prototype was developed to help users to navigate in such environments. In our experiment, a subject navigates along a wall relying on the haptic or audio feedbacks as navigation commands. Haptic/audio feedback is presented to the subjects according to the information measured from the walls to a set of 12 ultrasound sensors placed around a helmet and a classification algorithm by using multilayer perceptron neural network. Results showed the haptic modality leads to significantly lower route deviation in navigation compared to auditory feedback. Furthermore, the NASA TLX questionnaire showed that subjects reported lower cognitive workload with haptic modality although both modalities were able to navigate the users along the wall

Steps Toward Determination of the Size and Structure of the Broad-Line Region in Active Galactic Nuclei. XV. Long-Term Optical Monitoring of NGC 5548

We present the results of three years of ground-based observations of the Seyfert 1 galaxy NGC 5548, which combined with previously reported data, yield optical continuum and broad-line H-beta light curves for a total of eight years. The light curves consist of over 800 points, with a typical spacing of a few days between observations. During this eight-year period, the nuclear continuum has varied by more than a factor of seven, and the H-beta emission line has varied by a factor of nearly six. The H-beta emission line responds to continuum variations with a time delay or lag of 10-20 days, the precise value varying somewhat from year to year. We find some indications that the lag varies with continuum flux in the sense that the lag is larger when the source is brighter.Comment: 29 pages, 6 figures. Accepted for publication in ApJ (1999 Jan 10

Dijet resonances, widths and all that

The search for heavy resonances in the dijet channel is part of the on-going physics programme, both at the Tevatron and at the LHC. Lower limits have been placed on the masses of dijet resonances predicted in a wide variety of models. However, across experiments, the search strategy assumes that the effect of the new particles is well-approximated by on-shell production and subsequent decay into a pair of jets. We examine the impact of off-shell effects on such searches, particularly for strongly interacting resonances.Comment: Version published in JHE

Data mining of high density genomic variant data for prediction of Alzheimer's disease risk

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The discovery of genetic associations is an important factor in the understanding of human illness to derive disease pathways. Identifying multiple interacting genetic mutations associated with disease remains challenging in studying the etiology of complex diseases. And although recently new single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at genes implicated in immune response, cholesterol/lipid metabolism, and cell membrane processes have been confirmed by genome-wide association studies (GWAS) to be associated with late-onset Alzheimer's disease (LOAD), a percentage of AD heritability continues to be unexplained. We try to find other genetic variants that may influence LOAD risk utilizing data mining methods.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Two different approaches were devised to select SNPs associated with LOAD in a publicly available GWAS data set consisting of three cohorts. In both approaches, single-locus analysis (logistic regression) was conducted to filter the data with a less conservative p-value than the Bonferroni threshold; this resulted in a subset of SNPs used next in multi-locus analysis (random forest (RF)). In the second approach, we took into account prior biological knowledge, and performed sample stratification and linkage disequilibrium (LD) in addition to logistic regression analysis to preselect loci to input into the RF classifier construction step.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The first approach gave 199 SNPs mostly associated with genes in calcium signaling, cell adhesion, endocytosis, immune response, and synaptic function. These SNPs together with <it>APOE and GAB2 </it>SNPs formed a predictive subset for LOAD status with an average error of 9.8% using 10-fold cross validation (CV) in RF modeling. Nineteen variants in LD with <it>ST5, TRPC1, ATG10, ANO3, NDUFA12, and NISCH </it>respectively, genes linked directly or indirectly with neurobiology, were identified with the second approach. These variants were part of a model that included <it>APOE </it>and <it>GAB2 </it>SNPs to predict LOAD risk which produced a 10-fold CV average error of 17.5% in the classification modeling.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>With the two proposed approaches, we identified a large subset of SNPs in genes mostly clustered around specific pathways/functions and a smaller set of SNPs, within or in proximity to five genes not previously reported, that may be relevant for the prediction/understanding of AD.</p