Definizione delle strutturetettoniche nell’area aquilana mediante interpretazione 3D didati gravimetrici con un algoritmo basato sull’accrescimento dei corpi. Risultati preliminari.

-L’interpretazione tridimensionale èstata effettuata mediante l’utilizzo di un programma di calcolo basato su un algoritmo denominato “GROWTH”realizzato presso l’istituto de Astronomia y Geodesia della Facoltàdi Matematica dell’UniversitàComplutense di Madrid (Camachoetal., 2000) -Il metodo si basa sulla determinazione del volume di corpi profondi e lavora per iterazione su corpi prismatici il cui volume viene “accresciuto”in modo automatico al fine di ottenere il migliore “fitting”con i dati osservati -Il vantaggio di tale algoritmo, oltre all’automatismo e alla semplicità di utilizzo, è che esso non prevede un modello di innesco preventivamente costruito, può risolvere il modello utilizzando contemporaneamente contrasti di densità sia positivi che negativi e fornire, tra le altre informazioni, l’andamento regionale delle anomalie di Bouguer, necessario per la definizione delle strutture crostali più profond

Geometrical and physical properties of the 1982-84 deformation source at Campi Flegrei - Italy

Deformation of the ground surface in volcanic areas is generally recognized as a reliable indicator of unrest, possibly resulting from the intrusion of fresh magma within the shallow rock layers. The intrusion process is usually represented by a deformation source such as an ellipsoidal pressurized cavity, embedded within a homogeneous and elastic half-space. Similar source models allow inferring the depth, the location and the (incremental) volume of the intrusion, which are very important parameters for volcanic risk implications. However, assuming a homogeneous and elastic rheology and, assigning a priori the shape and the mechanism of the source (within a very restricted “library” of available solutions) may bias considerably the inference of source parameters. In complete generality, any point source deformation, including overpressure sources, may be described in terms of a suitable moment tensor, while the assumption of an overpressure source strongly restricts the variety of allowable moment tensors. In particular, by assuming a pressurized cavity, we rule out the possibility that either shear failure may precede magma emplacement (seismically induced intrusion) or may accompany it (mixed tensile and shear mode fracture). Another possibility is that a pre-existent weakness plane may be chosen by the ascending magma (fracture toughness heterogeneity). We perform joint inversion of levelling and EDM data (part of latter are unpublished), collected during the 1982-84 unrest at Campi Flegrei caldera: a 43% misfit reduction is obtained for a general moment source if the elastic heterogeneities computed from seismic tomography are accouted for. The inferred source is at 5.2 km depth but cannot be interpreted as a simple pressurized cavity. Moreover, if mass conservation is accounted for, magma emplaced within a shallow source must come from a (generally deeper) reservoir, which is usually assumed to be deep enough to be simply neglected. At Campi Flegrei, seismic tomography indicates that the “deep” magma source is rather shallow (at 7-8 km depth), so that its presence should be included in any thorough attempt to source modeling. Taking into account a deflating source at 7.5 km depth (represented either as a horizontal sill or as an isotropic cavity) and an inflating moment source, the fit of both levelling and EDM data improves further (misfit reduction 80%), but still the best fitting moment source (at 5.5 km depth) falls outside the range of pressurized ellipsoidal cavities. The shallow moment source may be decomposed in a tensile and a shear dislocation. No clue is obtained that the shear and the tensile mechanisms should be located in different positions. Our favourite interpretation is in terms of a crack opening in mixed tensile and shear mode, as would be provided by fluid magma unwelding pre-stressed solid rock. Although this decomposition of the source is not unique, the proposed solution is physically motivated by the minimum overpressure requirement. An important implication of this new interpretation is that the magma emplaced in the shallow moment source during the 1982-84 unrest was not added to already resident magma at the same position

A new interpretation of the 1982-84 unrest episode at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) by numerical inversion

The 1982-84 unrest episode at Campi Flegrei was characterized by huge deformation (about 1.8 m uplift) located inside the caldera and significant gravity variations correlated with the elevation changes (about -213 $\mu$Gal/m). Due to the bell shape of the uplift, the source is usually interpreted to have a fixed spherical shape. In the present study, we combine simple point source mechanisms (dipoles and double couples) to represent arbitrary sources such as sphere, ellipsoid or sill. The models are realized by Finite Element and the medium may be characterized by elastic heterogeneities. We study the deformation detected by leveling and EDM techniques by coupling the FE forward models with an inversion procedure. The potential point sources are contained in a volume of 8$\times$8$\times$8 km$^3$ located beneath Pozzuoli, the site of maximum displacement. We calculate the displacement field at each data point for each basic mechanism and we compare the result with the observed value. From the inversion of geodetic data we retrieve the best-fitting source parameters, without fixing the shape a priori. The best-fitting source is located beneath Pozzuoli at about 4.8 km b.s.l. and undergoes to horizontal compression and vertical dilatation

What if cancer survival in Britain were the same as in Europe: how many deaths are avoidable?

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the number of deaths among cancer patients diagnosed in Great Britain that would be avoidable within 5 years of diagnosis if the mean (or highest) survival in Europe for patients diagnosed during 1985-1989, 1990-1994 and 1995-1999 were achieved. DESIGN: Five-year relative survival for cancers in Great Britain compared with that from other countries in the EUROCARE-2, -3 and -4 studies. Calculation of excess deaths (those more than expected from mortality in the general population) that would be avoidable among cancer patients in Britain if relative survival were the same as in Europe. SETTING: Great Britain (England, Wales, Scotland) and 13 other European countries. SUBJECTS: 2.8 million adults diagnosed in Britain with 1 of 39 cancers during 1985-1989 (followed up to 1994), 1990-1994 (followed up to 1999) and 1995-1999 (followed up to 2003). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Annual number of avoidable deaths within 5 years of diagnosis. Percentage of the excess (cancer-related) deaths among cancer patients that would be avoidable. RESULTS: Compared with the mean European 5-year relative survival, the largest numbers of avoidable deaths for patients diagnosed during 1985-1989 were for cancers of the breast (about 18% of the excess mortality from this cancer, 7541 deaths), prostate (14%, 4285), colon (9%, 4090), stomach (8%, 3483) and lung (2%, 3548). For 1990-1994, the largest numbers of avoidable deaths were for cancers of the prostate (20%, 7335), breast (15%, 6165), colon (9%, 4376), stomach (9%, 3672), lung (2%, 3735) and kidney (22%, 2644). For 1995-1999, most of the avoidable deaths were for cancers of the prostate (17%, 5758), breast (15%, 5475), lung (3%, 4923), colon (10%, 4295), stomach (9%, 3137) and kidney (21%, 2686).Overall, some 6600-7500 premature deaths would have been avoided each year among cancer patients diagnosed in Britain during 1985-1999 if the mean survival in Europe had been achieved. This represents 6-7% of cancer-related mortality. Compared with the highest European survival, avoidable premature mortality among cancer patients fell from about 12 800 deaths a year (12.2% of cancer-related mortality) to about 11 400 deaths a year (10.6%) over the same period.A large component of the avoidable mortality is due to prostate cancer: excluding this cancer from comparison with the European mean survival reduces the annual number of avoidable deaths by 1000-1500, and the percentage of excess mortality by up to 1%. Compared with the highest survival, the annual number of avoidable deaths would be 1500-2000 fewer, and 1-2% lower as a percentage of excess mortality, but the overall trend in avoidable premature mortality among cancer patients would be similar, falling from 11.4% (1985-1989) to 10.3% (1990-1994) and 9.7% for those diagnosed during 1995-1999.For several cancers, survival in Britain was slightly higher than the mean survival in Europe; this represented some 110-180 premature deaths avoided each year during the period 1985-2003. CONCLUSIONS: Avoidable premature mortality among cancer patients diagnosed in Britain during 1985-1999 has represented 6-7% of cancer-related mortality compared with the mean survival in Europe. Compared with the highest levels of survival in Europe, the reduction from 12.2% to 10.6% of cancer-related mortality reflects small but steady progress over the period 1985-2003

On deformation sources in volcanic areas: Modeling the Campi Flegrei (Italy) 1982–84 unrest

Deformation sources in volcanic areas are generally modeled in terms of pressurized tri-axial ellipsoids or pressurized cracks with simple geometrical shapes, embedded in a homogeneous half-space. However, the assumption of a particular source mechanism and the neglect of medium heterogeneities bias significantly the estimate of source parameters. A more general approach describes the deformation source in terms of a suitable moment tensor. Ratios between moment tensor eigenvalues are shown to provide a strong diagnostic tool for the physical interpretation of the deformation source and medium heterogeneities may be accounted for through 3D finite element computations. Leveling and EDM data, collected during the 1982–84 unrest episode at Campi Flegrei (Italy), are employed to retrieve the complete moment tensor according to a Bayesian inversion procedure, considering the heterogeneous elastic structure of the volcanic area. Best fitting moment tensors are found to be incompatible with any pressurized ellipsoid or crack. Taking into account the deflation of a deeper magma reservoir, which accompanies the inflation of a shallower source, data fit improves considerably but the retrieved moment tensor of the shallow source is found to be incompatible with pressurized ellipsoids, still. Looking for alternative physical models of the dislocation source, we find that the best fit moment tensor can be best interpreted in terms of a mixed mode (shear and tensile) dislocation at 5.5 km depth, striking EW and dipping by ~25°–30° to the North. Gravity changes are found to be compatible with the intrusion of ~60–70·10^6 m^3 of volatile rich magma with density ~2400 kg/m^3

PHOTOGRAMMETRIC PROCESSING AND FRUITION OF PRODUCTS IN OPEN-SOURCE ENVIRONMENT APPLIED TO THE CASE STUDY OF THE ARCHAEOLOGICAL PARK OF POMPEII

Abstract. The paper presents the geomatic survey campaign carried out in the Domus V of Pompeii Archaeological site, the photogrammetric processing of the collected images and the following fruition of the deriving products deploying open-source software. Among all the produced results, the orthophotos of the vertical walls of one of the Domus V rooms are made available through a "master/slave" GIS environment, where each orthophoto is uploaded in a "slave" project whose visualization is triggered by querying the corresponding geometry representing the wall in the "master" project. This strategy allows to include the display of the third dimension, i.e., the altimetric one, within a traditional GIS environment, so to constitute a 3D GIS representation. This is particularly useful to realize a catalogue of all the archaeological site in the future to be viewed, queried and exploited also by non-specialists in geomatics or archaeology fields of knowledge

On deformation sources in volcanic areas: modeling the Campi Flegrei (Italy) 1982-84 unrest

Deformation sources in volcanic areas are generally modeled in terms of pressurized tri-axial ellipsoids or other cavities with simple geometrical shapes embedded in homogeneous half-spaces. However, the assumption of a particular source mechanism and the neglect of medium heterogeneities bias significantly the estimate of source parameters. Leveling and EDM data, collected during the 1982-84 unrest episode at Campi Flegrei (Italy), are employed to retrieve source parameters according to a Bayesian inversion procedure, considering the heterogeneous elastic structure of the volcanic area. We describe a general deformation source in terms of a suitable moment tensor, through 3D finite element computations. Best fitting moment tensors are found to be incompatible with any pressurized ellipsoid. Taking into account the deflation of a deeper magma reservoir, which accompanies the inflation of the shallower moment source, data fit improves considerably but the retrieved moment tensor of the shallow source is found to be incompatible with pressurized ellipsoids, still. Looking for alternative physical models of the deformation source, we find that the best fit moment tensor can be best interpreted in terms of a mixed-mode (shear and tensile) dislocation at 5.5 km depth, striking EW and dipping by 30 to the North. Gravity changes are found to be compatible with the intrusion of 60·106 m3 of volatile rich magma with density 2000 kg/m3