A rural agricultural-sustainable energy community model and its application to Felton Valley, Australia

Energy and food security require a delicate balance which should not threaten or undermine community prosperity. Where it is proposed to derive energy from conventional fossil fuel resources (such as coal, shale oil, natural gas, coal seam gas) located in established rural areas, and particularly where these areas are used for productive agricultural purposes, there are often both intense community concern as well as broader questions regarding the relative social, economic and environmental costs and benefits of different land uses and, increasingly, different energy sources. The advent of mainstream renewable energy technologies means that alternative energy options may provide a viable alternative, allowing energy demand to be met without compromising existing land uses. We demonstrate how such a Sustainable Energy Rural Model can be designed to achieve a balance between the competing social goals of energy supply, agricultural production, environmental integrity and social well-being, and apply it to the Felton Valley, a highly productive and resilient farming community in eastern Australia. Research into available wind and solar resources found that Felton Valley has a number of attributes that indicate its suitability for the development of an integrated renewable energy precinct which would complement, rather than displace, existing agricultural enterprises. Modelling results suggest a potential combined annual renewable energy output from integrated wind and solar resources of 1,287 GWh/yr from peak installed capacity of 713 MW, sufficient to supply the electrical energy needs of about 160,000 homes, in combination with total biomass food production of 31,000 tonnes per annum or 146 GWh/yr of human food energy. The portfolio of renewable energy options will not only provide energy source diversity but also ensures long-term food security and regional stability. The Felton Valley model provides an example of community-led energy transformation and has potential as a pilot project for the development of smart distributed grids that would negate the need for further expansion of coal mining and coal fired power stations

Influence of phase connectivity on the relationship among capillary pressure, fluid saturation, and interfacial area in two-fluid-phase porous medium systems

Multiphase flows in porous medium systems are typically modeled at the macroscale by applying the principles of continuum mechanics to develop models that describe the behavior of averaged quantities, such as fluid pressure and saturation. These models require closure relations to produce solvable forms. One of these required closure relations is an expression relating the capillary pressure to fluid saturation and, in some cases, other topological invariants such as interfacial area and the Euler characteristic (or average Gaussian curvature). The forms that are used in traditional models, which typically consider only the relationship between capillary pressure and saturation, are hysteretic. An unresolved question is whether the inclusion of additional morphological and topological measures can lead to a nonhysteretic closure relation. Relying on the lattice Boltzmann (LB) method, we develop an approach to investigate equilibrium states for a two-fluid-phase porous medium system, which includes disconnected nonwetting phase features. A set of simulations are performed within a random close pack of 1964 spheres to produce a total of 42 908 distinct equilibrium configurations. This information is evaluated using generalized additive models to quantitatively assess the degree to which functional relationships can explain the behavior of the equilibrium data. The variance of various model estimates is computed, and we conclude that, except for the limiting behavior close to a single fluid regime, capillary pressure can be expressed as a deterministic and nonhysteretic function of fluid saturation, interfacial area between the fluid phases, and the Euler characteristic. To our knowledge, this work is unique in the methods employed, the size of the data set, the resolution in space and time, the true equilibrium nature of the data, the parametrizations investigated, and the broad set of functions examined. The conclusion of essentially nonhysteretic behavior provides support for an evolving class of two-fluid-phase flow in porous medium systems models

Integrated Radiation Transport and Nuclear Fuel Performance for Assembly-Level Simulations

The Advanced Multi-Physics (AMP) Nuclear Fuel Performance code (AMPFuel) is focused on predicting the temperature and strain within a nuclear fuel assembly to evaluate the performance and safety of existing and advanced nuclear fuel bundles within existing and advanced nuclear reactors. AMPFuel was extended to include an integrated nuclear fuel assembly capability for (one-way) coupled radiation transport and nuclear fuel assembly thermo-mechanics. This capability is the initial step toward incorporating an improved predictive nuclear fuel assembly modeling capability to accurately account for source-terms and boundary conditions of traditional (single-pin) nuclear fuel performance simulation, such as the neutron flux distribution, coolant conditions, and assembly mechanical stresses. A novel scheme is introduced for transferring the power distribution from the Scale/Denovo (Denovo) radiation transport code (structured, Cartesian mesh with smeared materials within each cell) to AMPFuel (unstructured, hexagonal mesh with a single material within each cell), allowing the use of a relatively coarse spatial mesh (10 million elements) for the radiation transport and a fine spatial mesh (3.3 billion elements) for thermo-mechanics with very little loss of accuracy. In addition, a new nuclear fuel-specific preconditioner was developed to account for the high aspect ratio of each fuel pin (12 feet axially, but 1 4 inches in diameter) with many individual fuel regions (pellets). With this novel capability, AMPFuel was used to model an entire 17 17 pressurized water reactor fuel assembly with many of the features resolved in three dimensions (for thermo-mechanics and/or neutronics), including the fuel, gap, and cladding of each of the 264 fuel pins; the 25 guide tubes; the top and bottom structural regions; and the upper and lower (neutron) reflector regions. The final, full assembly calculation was executed on Jaguar using 40,000 cores in under 10 hours to model over 162 billion degrees of freedom for 10 loading steps. The single radiation transport calculation required about 50% of the time required to solve the thermo-mechanics with a single loading step, which demonstrates that it is feasible to incorporate, in a single code, a high-fidelity radiation transport capability with a high-fidelity nuclear fuel thermo-mechanics capability and anticipate acceptable computational requirements. The results of the full assembly simulation clearly show the axial, radial, and azimuthal variation of the neutron flux, power, temperature, and deformation of the assembly, highlighting behavior that is neglected in traditional axisymmetric fuel performance codes that do not account for assembly features, such as guide tubes and control rods

Improved Copper Circularity as a Result of Increased Material Efficiency in the U.S. Housing Stock

Material efficiency (ME) can support rapid climate change mitigation and circular economy. Here, we comprehensively assess the circularity of ME strategies for copper use in the U.S. housing services (including residential buildings and major household appliances) by integrating use-phase material and energy demand. Although the ME strategies of more intensive floor space use and extended lifetime of appliances and buildings reduce the primary copper demand, employing these strategies increases the commonly neglected use-phase share of total copper requirements during the century from 23–28 to 22–42%. Use-phase copper requirements for home improvements have remained larger than the demand gap (copper demand minus scrap availability) for much of the century, limiting copper circularity in the U.S. housing services. Further, use-phase energy consumption can negate the benefits of ME strategies. For instance, the lifetime extension of lower-efficiency refrigerators increases the copper use and net environmental impact by increased electricity use despite reductions from less production. This suggests a need for more attention to the use phase when assessing circularity, especially for products that are material and energy intensive during use. To avoid burden shifting, policymakers should consider the entire life cycle of products supporting services when pursuing circular economy goals

The risk of oesophago-gastric cancer in symptomatic patients in primary care: A large case-control study using electronic records

BACKGROUND: Over 15 000 new oesophago-gastric cancers are diagnosed annually in the United Kingdom, with most being advanced disease. We identified and quantified features of this cancer in primary care. METHODS: Case-control study using electronic primary-care records of the UK patients aged ≥40 years was performed. Cases with primary oesophago-gastric cancer were matched to controls on age, sex and practice. Putative features of cancer were identified in the year before diagnosis. Odds ratios (ORs) were calculated for these features using conditional logistic regression, and positive predictive values (PPVs) were calculated. RESULTS: A total of 7471 cases and 32 877 controls were studied. Sixteen features were independently associated with oesophago-gastric cancer (all P5% in patients ≥55 years was for dysphagia. In patients <55 years, all PPVs were <1%. CONCLUSION: Symptoms of oesophago-gastric cancer reported in secondary care were also important in primary care. The results should inform guidance and commissioning policy for upper GI endoscopy

Natural Variation of Model Mutant Phenotypes in Ciona intestinalis

BACKGROUND: The study of ascidians (Chordata, Tunicata) has made a considerable contribution to our understanding of the origin and evolution of basal chordates. To provide further information to support forward genetics in Ciona intestinalis, we used a combination of natural variation and neutral population genetics as an approach for the systematic identification of new mutations. In addition to the significance of developmental variation for phenotype-driven studies, this approach can encompass important implications in evolutionary and population biology. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Here, we report a preliminary survey for naturally occurring mutations in three geographically interconnected populations of C. intestinalis. The influence of historical, geographical and environmental factors on the distribution of abnormal phenotypes was assessed by means of 12 microsatellites. We identified 37 possible mutant loci with stereotyped defects in embryonic development that segregate in a way typical of recessive alleles. Local populations were found to differ in genetic organization and frequency distribution of phenotypic classes. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Natural genetic polymorphism of C. intestinalis constitutes a valuable source of phenotypes for studying embryonic development in ascidians. Correlating genetic structure and the occurrence of abnormal phenotypes is a crucial focus for understanding the selective forces that shape natural finite populations, and may provide insights of great importance into the evolutionary mechanisms that generate animal diversity

WIDER Advisory Group on International Economic Issues

(A research and training centre of the United Nations University