The openness conjecture and complex Brunn-Minkowski inequalities

We discuss recent versions of the Brunn-Minkowski inequality in the complex setting, and use it to prove the openness conjecture of Demailly and Koll\'ar.Comment: This is an account of the results in arXiv:1305.5781 together with some background material. It is based on a lecture given at the Abel symposium in Trondheim, June 2013. 13 page

Nonlinear multivariable analysis of SOI and local precipitation and temperature

International audienceGlobal climate variability affects important local hydro-meteorological variables like precipitation and temperature. The Southern Oscillation (SO) is an easily quantifiable major driving force that gives impact on regional and local climate. The relationships between SO and local climate variation are, however, characterized by strongly nonlinear processes. Due to this, teleconnections between global-scale hydro-meteorological variables and local climate are not well understood. In this paper, we suggest to study these processes in terms of nonlinear dynamics. Consequently, the nonlinear dynamic relationship between the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), precipitation, and temperature in Fukuoka, Japan, is investigated using a nonlinear multivariable approach. This approach is based on the joint variation of these variables in the phase space. The joint phase-space variation of SOI, precipitation, and temperature is studied with the primary objective to obtain a better understanding of the dynamical evolution of local hydro-meteorological variables affected by global atmospheric-oceanic phenomena. The results from the analyses display rather clear low-order phase space trajectories when treating the time series individually. However, when plotting phase space trajectories for several time series jointly, complicated higher-order nonlinear relationships emerge between the variables. Consequently, simple data-driven prediction techniques utilizing phase-space characteristics of individual time series may prove successful. On the other hand, since either the time series are too short and/or the phase-space properties are too complex when analysing several variables jointly, it may be difficult to use multivariable statistical prediction techniques for the present investigated variables. In any case, it is essential to further pursue studies regarding links between the SOI and observed local climatic and other geophysical variables even if these links are not fully understood in physical terms

The perceived barriers to the inclusion of rainwater harvesting systems by UK house building companies

This work investigates the barriers that exist to deter the implementation of rainwater harvesting into new UK housing. A postal questionnaire was sent to a selection of large, medium and small house-builders distributed across the UK. Questions were asked concerning potential barriers to the inclusion of rainwater harvesting in homes separated into five sections; (1) institutional and regulatory gaps, (2) economic and financial constraints, (3) absence of incentives, (4) lack of information and technical knowledge, and (5) house-builder attitudes. The study concludes that although the knowledge of rainwater systems has increased these barriers are deterring house-builders from installing rainwater harvesting systems in new homes. It is further acknowledged that the implementation of rainwater harvesting will continue to be limited whilst these barriers remain and unless resolved, rainwater harvesting's potential to reduce the consumption of potable water in houses will continue to be limited

Szeg\"o kernel asymptotics and Morse inequalities on CR manifolds

We consider an abstract compact orientable Cauchy-Riemann manifold endowed with a Cauchy-Riemann complex line bundle. We assume that the manifold satisfies condition Y(q) everywhere. In this paper we obtain a scaling upper-bound for the Szeg\"o kernel on (0, q)-forms with values in the high tensor powers of the line bundle. This gives after integration weak Morse inequalities, analogues of the holomorphic Morse inequalities of Demailly. By a refined spectral analysis we obtain also strong Morse inequalities which we apply to the embedding of some convex-concave manifolds.Comment: 40 pages, the constants in Theorems 1.1-1.8 have been modified by a multiplicative constant 1/2 ; v.2 is a final updat

Dynamics of monthly rainfall-runoff process at the Gota basin: A search for chaos

International audienceSivakumar et al. (2000a), by employing the correlation dimension method, provided preliminary evidence of the existence of chaos in the monthly rainfall-runoff process at the Gota basin in Sweden. The present study verifies and supports the earlier results and strengthens such evidence. The study analyses the monthly rainfall, runoff and runoff coefficient series using the nonlinear prediction method, and the presence of chaos is investigated through an inverse approach, i.e. identifying chaos from the results of the prediction. The presence of an optimal embedding dimension (the embedding dimension with the best prediction accuracy) for each of the three series indicates the existence of chaos in the rainfall-runoff process, providing additional support to the results obtained using the correlation dimension method. The reasonably good predictions achieved, particularly for the runoff series, suggest that the dynamics of the rainfall-runoff process could be understood from a chaotic perspective. The predictions are also consistent with the correlation dimension results obtained in the earlier study, i.e. higher prediction accuracy for series with a lower dimension and vice-versa, so that the correlation dimension method can indeed be used as a preliminary indicator of chaos. However, the optimal embedding dimensions obtained from the prediction method are considerably less than the minimum dimensions essential to embed the attractor, as obtained by the correlation dimension method. A possible explanation for this could be the presence of noise in the series, since the effects of noise at higher embedding dimensions could be significantly greater than that at lower embedding dimensions. Keywords: Rainfall-runoff; runoff coefficient; chaos; phase-space; correlation dimension; nonlinear prediction; noise</p

Positivity of relative canonical bundles and applications

Given a family $f:\mathcal X \to S$ of canonically polarized manifolds, the unique K\"ahler-Einstein metrics on the fibers induce a hermitian metric on the relative canonical bundle $\mathcal K_{\mathcal X/S}$. We use a global elliptic equation to show that this metric is strictly positive on $\mathcal X$, unless the family is infinitesimally trivial. For degenerating families we show that the curvature form on the total space can be extended as a (semi-)positive closed current. By fiber integration it follows that the generalized Weil-Petersson form on the base possesses an extension as a positive current. We prove an extension theorem for hermitian line bundles, whose curvature forms have this property. This theorem can be applied to a determinant line bundle associated to the relative canonical bundle on the total space. As an application the quasi-projectivity of the moduli space $\mathcal M_{\text{can}}$ of canonically polarized varieties follows. The direct images $R^{n-p}f_*\Omega^p_{\mathcal X/S}(\mathcal K_{\mathcal X/S}^{\otimes m})$, $m > 0$, carry natural hermitian metrics. We prove an explicit formula for the curvature tensor of these direct images. We apply it to the morphisms $S^p \mathcal T_S \to R^pf_*\Lambda^p\mathcal T_{\mathcal X/S}$ that are induced by the Kodaira-Spencer map and obtain a differential geometric proof for hyperbolicity properties of $\mathcal M_{\text{can}}$.Comment: Supercedes arXiv:0808.3259v4 and arXiv:1002.4858v2. To appear in Invent. mat

Drought impact in the Bolivian Altiplano agriculture associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation using satellite imagery data

Drought is a major natural hazard in the Bolivian Altiplano that causes large agricultural losses. However, the drought effect on agriculture varies largely on a local scale due to diverse factors such as climatological and hydrological conditions, sensitivity of crop yield to water stress, and crop phenological stage among others. To improve the knowledge of drought impact on agriculture, this study aims to classify drought severity using vegetation and land surface temperature data, analyse the relationship between drought and climate anomalies, and examine the spatio-temporal variability of drought using vegetation and climate data. Empirical data for drought assessment purposes in this area are scarce and spatially unevenly distributed. Due to these limitations we used vegetation, land surface temperature (LST), precipitation derived from satellite imagery, and gridded air temperature data products. Initially, we tested the performance of satellite precipitation and gridded air temperature data on a local level. Then, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and LST were used to classify drought events associated with past El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases. It was found that the most severe drought events generally occur during a positive ENSO phase (El Niño years). In addition, we found that a decrease in vegetation is mainly driven by low precipitation and high temperature, and we identified areas where agricultural losses will be most pronounced under such conditions. The results show that droughts can be monitored using satellite imagery data when ground data are scarce or of poor data quality. The results can be especially beneficial for emergency response operations and for enabling a proactive approach to disaster risk management against droughts

Section Extension from Hyperbolic Geometry of Punctured Disk and Holomorphic Family of Flat Bundles

The construction of sections of bundles with prescribed jet values plays a fundamental role in problems of algebraic and complex geometry. When the jet values are prescribed on a positive dimensional subvariety, it is handled by theorems of Ohsawa-Takegoshi type which give extension of line bundle valued square-integrable top-degree holomorphic forms from the fiber at the origin of a family of complex manifolds over the open unit 1-disk when the curvature of the metric of line bundle is semipositive. We prove here an extension result when the curvature of the line bundle is only semipositive on each fiber with negativity on the total space assumed bounded from below and the connection of the metric locally bounded, if a square-integrable extension is known to be possible over a double point at the origin. It is a Hensel-lemma-type result analogous to Artin's application of the generalized implicit function theorem to the theory of obstruction in deformation theory. The motivation is the need in the abundance conjecture to construct pluricanonical sections from flatly twisted pluricanonical sections. We also give here a new approach to the original theorem of Ohsawa-Takegoshi by using the hyperbolic geometry of the punctured open unit 1-disk to reduce the original theorem of Ohsawa-Takegoshi to a simple application of the standard method of constructing holomorphic functions by solving the d-bar equation with cut-off functions and additional blowup weight functions