Maximum Entropy and Bayesian Data Analysis: Entropic Priors

The problem of assigning probability distributions which objectively reflect the prior information available about experiments is one of the major stumbling blocks in the use of Bayesian methods of data analysis. In this paper the method of Maximum (relative) Entropy (ME) is used to translate the information contained in the known form of the likelihood into a prior distribution for Bayesian inference. The argument is inspired and guided by intuition gained from the successful use of ME methods in statistical mechanics. For experiments that cannot be repeated the resulting "entropic prior" is formally identical with the Einstein fluctuation formula. For repeatable experiments, however, the expected value of the entropy of the likelihood turns out to be relevant information that must be included in the analysis. The important case of a Gaussian likelihood is treated in detail.Comment: 23 pages, 2 figure

Environmental consequences of Maltese MSW incineration

The intensity of Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) generation by human and economic activities causes environmental impacts, particularly critical in small insular countries, such as Malta. Thus, an investigation of the potential of Maltese MSW incineration with energy recovery was performed in this work focused on thermodynamic and land use aspects. The electricity potential of an MSW incinerator with associated electrical power plant to be built in Malta can be estimated as 5% of the total energy consumed in 2010 in the archipelago; alternatively, in a CHP configuration, it can also supply all the thermal energy required in 2010 for Multi-Effect Desalination. During its lifespan the plant can reduce deposition in landfills by at least 270,000 m2 (0.09% of the archipelago total area), diminishing also the potential for water and soil contamination. Last but not least, it can contribute to decrease the dependence on imported fossil fuels

Energy recovery and impact on land use of Maltese municipal solid waste incineration

An investigation of the potential of Maltese Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) for energy recovery is carried in this work together with a preliminary assessment of the corresponding economic and land use impacts. MSW composition data was collected to evaluate the waste combustion enthalpy. Data from 1997 to 2010 allowed the conclusion that an incinerator with a capacity of 32,500kg/h can treat all the waste expectably generated in Malta during next 20 years. The thermodynamics of the steam cycle combined with elemental analysis were applied to study the contribution for power (PG) and Combined Heat and Power (CHP) generation. The thermal energy was analyzed assuming its use in desalination. The best scenario considered corresponds to a potential electric power of 10 MW (PG) or to a maximum 4.8 million m3/year of desalinated water combined with and 7.25 MW (CHP). It was concluded that incineration and CHP have the greatest potential to maximize revenues, due to the optimal combination of heat production and electricity generation. Finally, a calculation of the savings in land use due to the MSW incineration implementation was performed. Those savings could represent from 13,500 to 17,000 m2 per year, a decisive benefit for Malta.The authors acknowledge the financial support of IPC through project PEst-C/CTM/LA0025/2011 (Strategic Project-LA 25-2011-2012) for the execution of the work described herein. The work would not have been possible without the support of various individuals and institutions in Portugal and in the Maltese islands. In Portugal, we are grateful for the information provided by LIPOR - Central de Valorizacao Energetica, at Maia, which allowed us to validate the incineration data gathered in the literature. Our sincere thanks are also addressed to Prof. Toste de Azevedo, Viriato Semiao, Zdena Zsigraiova, Gilberto Tavares and Rui Martins, of the Mechanical Engineering Department at the Instituto Superior Tecnico, who helped us with the thermodynamic calculations and with other important incineration related information. We acknowledge the help of Prof. Godfrey Pirotta, Edward Mallia, Tonio Sant and Maria Attard of the University of Malta for their availability to explain and contextualize the islands' energy and environment policies. Finally, the assistance of WasteServ Malta Corporation, which provided actual information about MSW generation and further details about the Maltese waste management system, should also be acknowledged

Determinant factors of bank customers' demand for liquidity

In contexts of economic instability investors show an increase in aversion to risk and prefer high liquidity and low-risk financial products. In this paper, we study the reasons behind bank customers holding wealth in the form of immediate liquidity. Using micro data on clients’ portfolios of a Portuguese bank, we ask whether there is a relationship between the bank’s capital ratio and the proportion of wealth that clients allocate to demand deposits, which is a relatively unexplored topic in the literature. Special attention is also paid to the impact of investors' financial knowledge by looking at professional group and age. Results indicate that when banks’ capital ratio decreases, savers put a larger fraction of their investment into demand deposits, especially savers with greater risk aversion and knowledge. Finally, we find evidence of an “age effect” and also that investors belonging to professional groups with more skills follow more sophisticated investment strategies.FC

A 22-Week-Old Fetus with Nager Syndrome and Congenital Diaphragmatic Hernia due to a Novel SF3B4 Mutation.

Nager syndrome, or acrofacial dysostosis type 1 (AFD1), is a rare multiple malformation syndrome characterized by hypoplasia of first and second branchial arches derivatives and appendicular anomalies with variable involvement of the radial/axial ray. In 2012, AFD1 has been associated with dominant mutations in SF3B4. We report a 22-week-old fetus with AFD1 associated with diaphragmatic hernia due to a previously unreported SF3B4 mutation (c.35-2A>G). Defective diaphragmatic development is a rare manifestation in AFD1 as it is described in only 2 previous cases, with molecular confirmation in 1 of them. Our molecular finding adds a novel pathogenic splicing variant to the SF3B4 mutational spectrum and contributes to defining its prenatal/fetal phenotype

Sustainable manufacturing of new construction material from alkali activation of volcanic tuff

The current climate emergency leads to reduction of virgin raw material extraction and promotes circular economy. In this framework, alkali activation of unemployed fraction of grey tuff, combined with glass waste, provides a range of sustainable construction materials. For the sake of sustainability, tuff powder was subjected to rapid attack (30 min), operated by a 'weak' alkaline solution (3 M NaOH), and then left to dry at low temperature (75 degrees C) for 72 h. The addition of Triton X-100 surfactant was considered to obtain foams starting from slurries with different liquid-to-solid ratio. A thermal treatment was applied to selected samples, at low temperature (700 degrees C). Despite the 'mild' activation conditions, all products survived after immersion in boiling water or acid solution, already in the unfired state, according to the formation of a multiphasic gel. The strength-to density ratio, especially for foams, in both unfired and fired form, compares well with that of already existing construction materials (e.g. it could exceed 5 MPa cm3/g)

Completeness of birth registration in Brazil: an overview of methods and data sources

We provide an analysis of the main sources of data used to estimate fertility schedules in developing countries, giving special attention to Brazil. In addition to the brief history of various data sources, we present several indirect demographic methods, commonly used to estimate fertility and assess the quality of data. From the methods used, the Synthetic Relational Gompertz model gives the most robust estimates of fertility, independent of the data source considered. We conclude that different demographic data sources and methods generate differing estimates of fertility and that the country should invest in quality of birth statistics

Polarization forces in water deduced from single molecule data

Intermolecular polarization interactions in water are determined using a minimal atomic multipole model constructed with distributed polarizabilities. Hydrogen bonding and other properties of water-water interactions are reproduced to fine detail by only three multipoles $\mu_H$, $\mu_O$, and $\theta_O$ and two polarizabilities $\alpha_O$ and $\alpha_H$, which characterize a single water molecule and are deduced from single molecule data.Comment: 4 revtex pages, 3 embedded color PS figure

Effective Dielectric Response of Metamaterials

We use a homogenization procedure for Maxwell's equations in order to obtain in the local limit the frequency ($\omega$) dependent macroscopic dielectric response $\epsilon^M(\omega)$ of metamaterials made of natural constituents with any geometrical shape repeated periodically with any structure. We illustrate the formalism calculating $\epsilon^M(\omega)$ for several structures. For dielectric rectangular inclusions within a conducting material we obtained a very anisotropic response which changes along one direction from conductor-like at low $\omega$ to a resonant dielectric-like at large $\omega$, attaining a very small reflectance at intermediate frequencies unrelated to surface plasmon excitation and which can be tuned through geometrycal tayloring. A similar behavior is obtained for other shapes close to the percolation threshold.Comment: 16 pages 7 figures. Accepted in Phys. Rev. B (2009-06-08

Dandy-Walker malformation: is the "tail sign" the key sign?

OBJECTIVE.To demonstrate the value of the "tail sign" in the assessment of Dandy-Walker Malformation (DWM). METHODS: A total of 31fetal MRI, performed before 24 weeks of gestation after second-line US examination between May 2013 and September 2014, were examined retrospectively. All MRI examinations were performed using a 1.5 Tesla magnet without maternal sedation. RESULTS: MRI diagnosed 15/31 cases of Dandy-Walker Malformation, 6/31 cases of vermian partial caudal agenesis, 2/31 of vermian hypoplasia, 4/31 of vermian malrotation, 2/31 of Walker-Warburg Syndrome, 1/31 of Blake pouch cyst, 1/31 of rhombencephalosynapsis. All data were compared with fetopsy results, Fetal MR after the 30th week or postnatal MRI; the follow up depended on the maternal decision to terminate or continue pregnancy. In our review study we found the presence of the "tail sign"; this sign was visible only in Dandy-Walker Malformation and Walker-Warburg Syndrome. CONCLUSION: The "tail sign" could be helpful in the difficult differential diagnosis between Dandy Walker, vermian malrotation, vermian hypoplasia and vermian partial agenesis