Derivation and external validation of a clinical prognostic model identifying children at risk of death following presentation for diarrheal care

Diarrhea continues to be a leading cause of death for children under-five. Amongst children treated for acute diarrhea, mortality risk remains elevated during and after acute medical management. Identification of those at highest risk would enable better targeting of interventions, but available prognostic tools lack validation. We used clinical and demographic data from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) to build clinical prognostic models (CPMs) to predict death (in-treatment, after discharge, or either) in children aged ≤59 months presenting with moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD), in Africa and Asia. We screened variables using random forests, and assessed predictive performance with random forest regression and logistic regression using repeated cross-validation. We used data from the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS) and Kilifi County Hospital (KCH) in Kenya to externally validate our GEMS-derived CPM. Of 8060 MSD cases, 43 (0.5%) children died in treatment and 122 (1.5% of remaining) died after discharge. MUAC at presentation, respiratory rate, age, temperature, number of days with diarrhea at presentation, number of people living in household, number of children <60 months old living in household, and how much the child had been offered to drink since diarrhea started were predictive of death both in treatment and after discharge. Using a parsimonious 2-variable prediction model, we achieved an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.84 (95% CI: 0.82, 0.86) in the derivation dataset, and an AUC = 0.74 (95% CI 0.71, 0.77) in the external dataset. Our findings suggest it is possible to identify children most likely to die after presenting to care for acute diarrhea. This could represent a novel and cost-effective way to target resources for the prevention of childhood mortality

Sprouted Innervation into Uterine Transplants Contributes to the Development of Hyperalgesia in a Rat Model of Endometriosis

Endometriosis is an enigmatic painful disorder whose pain symptoms remain difficult to alleviate in large part because the disorder is defined by extrauteral endometrial growths whose contribution to pain is poorly understood. A rat model (ENDO) involves autotransplanting on abdominal arteries uterine segments that grow into vascularized cysts that become innervated with sensory and sympathetic fibers. ENDO rats exhibit vaginal hyperalgesia. We used behavioral, physiological, and immunohistochemical methods to test the hypothesis that cyst innervation contributes to the development of this hyperalgesia after transplant. Rudimentary sensory and sympathetic innervation appeared in the cysts at two weeks, sprouted further and more densely into the cyst wall by four weeks, and matured by six weeks post-transplant. Sensory fibers became abnormally functionally active between two and three weeks post-transplant, remaining active thereafter. Vaginal hyperalgesia became significant between four and five weeks post-transplant, and stabilized after six to eight weeks. Removing cysts before they acquired functional innervation prevented vaginal hyperalgesia from developing, whereas sham cyst removal did not. Thus, abnormally-active innervation of ectopic growths occurs before hyperalgesia develops, supporting the hypothesis. These findings suggest that painful endometriosis can be classified as a mixed inflammatory/neuropathic pain condition, which opens new avenues for pain relief. The findings also have implications beyond endometriosis by suggesting that functionality of any transplanted tissue can be influenced by the innervation it acquires

Strategies and Methods for Research on Sex Differences in Brain and Behavior

Female and male brains differ. Differences begin early during development due to a combination of genetic and hormonal events and continue throughout the lifespan of an individual. Although researchers from a myriad of disciplines are beginning to appreciate the importance of considering sex differences in the design and interpretation of their studies, this is an area that is full of potential pitfalls.A female’s reproductive status and ovarian cycle have to be taken into account when studying sex differences in health and disease susceptibility, in the pharmacological effects of drugs, and in the study of brain and behavior. To investigate sex differences in brain and behavior there is a logical series of questions that should be answered in a comprehensive investigation of any trait. First, it is important to determine that there is a sex differencein the trait in intact males and females, taking into consideration the reproductive cycle of the female. Then, one must consider whether the sex difference is attributable to the actions of gonadal steroids at the time of testing and/or is sexually differentiated permanently by the action of gonadal steroids during development. To answer these questions requires knowledge of how to assess and/or manipulate the hormonal condition of the subjects in the experiment appropriately. This article describes methods and procedures to assist scientists new to the field in designing and conducting experiments to investigate sex differences in research involving both laboratory animals and humans.NIMHPeer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/49483/2/Becker et al Strategies sex differences Endo 2005.pd

Endometriosis and Headache

Headache and endometriosis show some similarities in their clinical and epidemiological features that are probably due to the influence of female sexual hormones on both disorders. Epidemiological studies indicate that they are comorbid disorders. However, the nature of the comorbidity is not known with certainty, but a likely explanation may be common susceptibility genes. Another possibility is that, because they both are related to pain, increased pain sensitivity induced by one of the disorders may lead to a higher likelihood of developing the other, possibly mediated by nitrogen oxide or prostaglandins. A common link to the widespread use of estroprogestins may seem less probable. For physicians dealing with women with either of these disorders, awareness of the comorbidity may be helpful in the treatment of the patient

Identification by PCR of Non-typhoidal Salmonella enterica Serovars Associated with Invasive Infections among Febrile Patients in Mali

The genus Salmonella has more than 2500 serological variants (serovars), such as Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi and Salmonella Paratyphi A and B, that cause, respectively, typhoid and paratyphoid fevers (enteric fevers), and a large number of non-typhoidal Salmonella (NTS) serovars that cause gastroenteritis in healthy hosts. In young infants, the elderly and immunocompromised hosts, NTS can cause severe, fatal invasive disease. Multiple studies of pediatric patients in sub-Saharan Africa have documented the important role of NTS, in particular Salmonella Typhimurium and Salmonella Enteritidis (and to a lesser degree Salmonella Dublin), as invasive bacterial pathogens. Salmonella spp. are isolated from blood and identified by standard microbiological techniques and the serovar is ascertained by agglutination with commercial antisera. PCR-based typing techniques are becoming increasingly popular in developing countries, in part because high quality typing sera are difficult to obtain and expensive and H serotyping is technically difficult. We have developed a series of polymerase chain reactions (PCRs) to identify Salmonella Typhimurium and variants, Salmonella Enteritidis and Salmonella Dublin. We successfully identified 327 Salmonella isolates using our multiplex PCR. We also designed primers to detect Salmonella Stanleyville, a serovar found in West Africa. Another PCR generally differentiated diphasic Salmonella Typhimurium and monophasic Salmonella Typhimurium variant strains from other closely related strains. The PCRs described here will enable more laboratories in developing countries to serotype NTS that have been isolated from blood

Salud global 2035: un mundo convergiendo en el lapso de una generación

Con motivo del 20º aniversario del Informe sobre el Desarrollo Mundial 1993, una Comisión de la revista The Lancet reconsideró el argumento a favor de la inversión en salud y desarrolló un nuevo marco de inversión para lograr mejoras dramáticas en materia de salud para el año 2035. El informe de la Comisión contiene cuatro mensajes clave, cada uno acompañado de oportunidades para los gobiernos nacionales de países de ingresos bajos y medios y para la comunidad internacional. En primer lugar, invertir en salud acarrea enormes rendimientos económicos. Las impresionantes ganancias son un fuerte argumento a favor de un aumento en el financiamiento nacional de la salud y de asignar una mayor proporción de la asistencia oficial al desarrollo de la salud. En segundo  lugar, en el modelo creado por la Comisión se encontró que es posible lograr para el año 2035 una “gran convergencia” en salud, consistente en la reducción de las tasas de mortalidad materna, infantil y por infecciones a niveles universalmente bajos. Tal convergencia requeriría la ampliación de las herramientas de salud existentes y un incremento agresivo de nuevas herramientas, y podría ser financiada en su mayor parte con recursos derivados del crecimiento económico esperado de los países de ingresos bajos y medios. La mejor manera en que la comunidad internacional puede apoyar la convergencia es financiando el desarrollo y suministro de nuevas tecnologías de salud, y frenando la resistencia a los antibióticos. En tercer lugar, las políticas fiscales –tales como los impuestos al tabaco y al alcohol– son una palanca poderosa y subutilizada que los gobiernos pueden emplear para detener el avance de las enfermedades no transmisibles (ENT) y las lesiones, a la vez que elevan los ingresos públicos para la salud. La acción internacional sobre las ENT y lesiones debería enfocarse en proporcionar asistencia técnica sobre políticas fiscales, en cooperación regional para el combate al tabaquismo y en financiar investigación sobre políticas e implementación para ampliar las intervenciones que enfrenten estos problemas. En cuarto lugar, la universalización progresiva –una vía hacia la cobertura universal de salud (CUS) que incluya desde el comienzo a los pobres– es una manera eficiente de lograr la protección a la salud contra riesgos financieros. Para los gobiernos nacionales, la universalización progresiva produciría elevadas ganancias en salud por cada dólar que se gaste en ésta, y los pobres serían quienes más ganarían en términos tanto de salud como de protección financiera. La mejor manera en que la comunidad internacional puede brindar apoyo a los países para implementar una CUS progresiva es financiando la investigación sobre políticas e implementación, por ejemplo, sobre la mecánica del diseño e instrumentación de la evolución del paquete de beneficios conforme crezca el presupuesto para las finanzas públicas

Single low-dose primaquine for blocking transmission of Plasmodium falciparum malaria - a proposed model-derived age-based regimen for sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: In 2012, the World Health Organization recommended blocking the transmission of Plasmodium falciparum with single low-dose primaquine (SLDPQ, target dose 0.25 mg base/kg body weight), without testing for glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency (G6PDd), when treating patients with uncomplicated falciparum malaria. We sought to develop an age-based SLDPQ regimen that would be suitable for sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: Using data on the anti-infectivity efficacy and tolerability of primaquine (PQ), the epidemiology of anaemia, and the risks of PQ-induced acute haemolytic anaemia (AHA) and clinically significant anaemia (CSA), we prospectively defined therapeutic-dose ranges of 0.15-0.4 mg PQ base/kg for children aged 1-5 years and 0.15-0.5 mg PQ base/kg for individuals aged ≥6 years (therapeutic indices 2.7 and 3.3, respectively). We chose 1.25 mg PQ base for infants aged 6-11 months because they have the highest rate of baseline anaemia and the highest risks of AHA and CSA. We modelled an anthropometric database of 661,979 African individuals aged ≥6 months (549,127 healthy individuals, 28,466 malaria patients and 84,386 individuals with other infections/illnesses) by the Box-Cox transformation power exponential and tested PQ doses of 1-15 mg base, selecting dosing groups based on calculated mg/kg PQ doses. RESULTS: From the Box-Cox transformation power exponential model, five age categories were selected: (i) 6-11 months (n = 39,886, 6.03%), (ii) 1-5 years (n = 261,036, 45.46%), (iii) 6-9 years (n = 20,770, 3.14%), (iv) 10-14 years (n = 12,155, 1.84%) and (v) ≥15 years (n = 328,132, 49.57%) to receive 1.25, 2.5, 5, 7.5 and 15 mg PQ base for corresponding median (1st and 99th centiles) mg/kg PQ base of: (i) 0.16 (0.12-0.25), (ii) 0.21 (0.13-0.37), (iii) 0.25 (0.16-0.38), (iv) 0.26 (0.15-0.38) and (v) 0.27 (0.17-0.40). The proportions of individuals predicted to receive optimal therapeutic PQ doses were: 73.2 (29,180/39,886), 93.7 (244,537/261,036), 99.6 (20,690/20,770), 99.4 (12,086/12,155) and 99.8% (327,620/328,132), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We plan to test the safety of this age-based dosing regimen in a large randomised placebo-controlled trial (ISRCTN11594437) of uncomplicated falciparum malaria in G6PDd African children aged 0.5 - 11 years. If the regimen is safe and demonstrates adequate pharmacokinetics, it should be used to support malaria elimination