Developing a Practical Forecasting Screener for Domestic Violence Incidents

In this paper, we report on the development of a short screening tool that deputies in the Los Angeles Sheriff\u27s Department could use in the field to help forecast domestic violence incidents in particular households. The data come from over 500 households to which sheriff\u27s deputies were dispatched in the fall of 2003. Information on potential predictors was collected at the scene. Outcomes were measured during a three month follow-up. The data were analyzed with modern data mining procedures in which true forecasts were evaluated. A screening instrument was then developed based on a small fraction of the information collected. Making the screening instrument more complicated did not improve forecasting skill. Taking the relative costs of false positives and false negatives into account, the instrument correctly forecasted future calls for service about 60% of the time. Future calls involving domestic violence misdemeanors and felonies were correctly forecast about 50% of the time. The 50% figure is especially important because such calls require a law enforcement response and yet are a relatively small fraction of all domestic violence calls for service. A number of broader policy implications follow. It is feasible to construct a quick-response, domestic violence screener that is practical to deploy and that can forecast with useful skill. More informed decisions by police officers in the field can follow. Although the same kinds of predictors are likely to be effective in a wide variety of jurisdictions, the particular indicators selected will vary in response to local demographics and the local costs of forecasting errors. It is also feasible to evaluate such quick-response threat assessment tools for their forecasting accuracy. But, the costs of forecasting errors must be taken into account. Also, when the data used to build the forecasting instrument are also used to evaluate its accuracy, inflated estimates of forecasting skill are likely

Legalized Abortion and the Homicide of Young Children: An Empirical Investigation

Recent research has drawn a link, sometimes a causal link, between the legalization of abortion in the late 1960s and early 1970s and the precipitous decline in crime in the 1990s. Abortion is posited to have reduced the number of potential victims and potential perpetrators, and the potential effect is examined when these individuals would be reaching their high-crime years. We examined a more proximal potential association between legalized abortion and homicide, specifically, the homicide of young children. Assuming that abortions occurred when the family had insufficient resources for the birth, one could hypothesize that children would have been at higher risk of homicide if born into these circumstances. We examined 1960-1998 U.S. mortality data for children under 5 years of age using an interrupted time series design. The legalization of abortion was not associated with a sudden change in child homicide trends. It was, however, associated with a steady decrease in the homicides of toddlers (i.e., 1- to 4-year-olds) in subsequent years. Although in the predicted direction, the decrease in homicides of children under 1 year of age was not statistically significant. Competing explanations that could be examined in the data (e.g., changes in mortality classification) do not account for the findings

Photometric analysis of a space shuttle water venting

Presented here is a preliminary interpretation of a recent experiment conducted on Space Shuttle Discovery (Mission STS 29) in which a stream of liquid supply water was vented into space at twilight. The data consist of video images of the sunlight-scattering water/ice particle cloud that formed, taken by visible light-sensitive intensified cameras both onboard the spacecraft and at the AMOS ground station near the trajectory's nadir. This experiment was undertaken to study the phenomenology of water columns injected into the low-Earth orbital environment, and to provide information about the lifetime of ice particles that may recontact Space Shuttle orbits later. The findings about the composition of the cloud have relevance to ionospheric plasma depletion experiments and to the dynamics of the interaction of orbiting spacecraft with the environment

Investigating owner use of dietary supplements in dogs with idiopathic epilepsy

Epilepsy is the most common chronic neurological disorder in dogs. Some diets have been shown to have a positive impact upon the seizure activity in dogs with idiopathic epilepsy (IE), while other diets and dietary supplements (DS), although marketed as providing health benefits, lack conclusive scientific evidence on their actual beneficial effects. A web-based owner questionnaire was designed to assess how and why owners of dogs with IE use different dietary regimes and DS. The study cohort, with 297 valid responses, consisted mainly of pure-breed (82.5%) male neutered (52.9%) dogs. Over two-thirds of owners (67.7%) changed their dog's diet after their dog received a diagnosis of IE. Nearly half of the owners (45.8%) reported giving DS, the most common being coconut oil or derived medium-chain triglyceride oil (71.3%). Some owner justifications of DS use included improvement of seizure frequency (88.2%), seizure severity (61.8%) and protection from potential drug side effects (62.5%). Many owners give DS to their dog with IE. The pharmacokinetic properties of anti-epileptic drugs, such as efficacy, absorption and clearance can be influenced by other medications, diets and possibly by DS. We propose that use of DS should be considered and monitored by veterinary surgeons in epilepsy management

ABCB1 polymorphism predicts escitalopram dose needed for remission in major depression

The ATP-binding cassette family of transporter proteins, subfamily B (MDR/TAP), member 1 (ABCB1) (P-glycoprotein) transporter is a key component of the blood&ndash;brain barrier. Many antidepressants are subject to ABCB1 efflux. Functional polymorphisms of ABCB1 may influence central nervous system bioavailability of antidepressants subject to efflux. Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at rs1045642 (C3435T) of ABCB1 have been associated with efflux pump efficiency. This may explain part of the interindividual variation in antidepressant dose needed to remit. Individuals (N=113) with DSM-IV (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition) major depressive disorder (MDD) were treated with escitalopram (ESC) or venlafaxine (VEN) over 8 weeks. The17-item Hamilton Depression Rating Scale was assessed serially, blind to genotype. SNP rs1045642 of ABCB1 along with two SNPs previously reported to be in linkage disequilibrium with it (rs2032582 and rs1128503) were genotyped. Demographic features, clinical features, P450 metabolizer status and 5-HTTLPR (serotonin-transporter-linked promoter region) genotype were controlled for. Carriers of rs1045642 TT needed on average 11&thinsp;mg of ESC to remit, whereas TC and CC carriers required 24 and 19&thinsp;mg, respectively (P=0.0001). This equates to a 2.0- (95% confidence interval=1.5&ndash;3.4; P&lt;0.001) fold greater ESC dose needed to remit for C carriers compared with TT carriers at rs1045642. Of VEN-treated subjects carrying TT genotype at rs1045642, 73.3% remitted compared with 12.5% for CC genotype (odds ratio=6.69; 95% confidence interval=1.72&ndash;25.9, P=0.006). These data suggest that antidepressant dose needed to remit can be predicted by an ABCB1 SNP. This has the potential clinical translation implications for dose selection and remission from MDD.<br /

Protocol and rationale-the efficacy of minocycline as an adjunctive treatment for major depressive disorder: a double blind, randomised, placebo controlled trial

While current pharmacotherapies are efficacious, there remain a clear shortfall between symptom remission and functional recovery. With the explosion in our understanding of the biology of these disorders, the time is ripe for the investigation of novel therapies. Recently depression is conceptualized as an immune-inflammatory and nitro-oxidative stress related disorder. Minocycline is a tetracycline antibiotic that has anti-inflammatory, pro-oxidant, glutamatergic, neurotrophic and neuroprotective properties that make it a viable target to explore as a new therapy. This double blind, randomised, placebo controlled adjunctive trial will investigate the benefits of 200 mg/day of minocycline treatment, in addition to any usual treatment, as an adjunctive treatment for moderate-severe major depressive disorder. Sixty adults are being randomised to 12 weeks of treatment (with a 4 week follow-up post-discontinuation). The primary outcome measure for the study is mean change on the Montgomery-Asberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS), with secondary outcomes including the Social and Occupational Functioning Assessment Scale (SOFAS), Clinical Global Impressions (CGI), Hamilton Rating Scale for Anxiety (HAM-A), Patient Global Impression (PGI), Quality of Life Enjoyment and Satisfaction Questionnaire (Q-LES-Q) and Range of Impaired Functioning Tool (LIFE-RIFT). Biomarker analyses will also be conducted at baseline and week 12. The study has the potential to provide new treatment targets, both by showing efficacy with a new class of \u27antidepressant\u27 but also through the analysis of biomarkers that may further inform our understanding of the pathophysiology of unipolar depression